Looks like NDP just pulled out of an agreement with Liberals. Maybe, maybe, maybe an election around the corner.
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GandiBaat
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Oh the lure of pensions~ These folks are really really greedy. NDP and Bloc will both not topple the Trudeau govt for the time being it seems.
Very quiet here lately...
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-will-cut-its-permanent-immigration-levels-by-at-least-20-per-cent-1.7084925
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/trudeau-government-lower-immigration-2025
Barring any last-minute changes, the federal government is planning to decrease permanent resident intake from 485,000 this year to 395,000 in 2025, National Post has learned. The government is planning to further cut intake to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.
#CanadaFirst #MakeCanadaGeatAgain
https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/canada-will-cut-its-permanent-immigration-levels-by-at-least-20-per-cent-1.7084925
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/trudeau-government-lower-immigration-2025
Barring any last-minute changes, the federal government is planning to decrease permanent resident intake from 485,000 this year to 395,000 in 2025, National Post has learned. The government is planning to further cut intake to 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.
#CanadaFirst #MakeCanadaGeatAgain
Everything I predicted has happened. It’s unfortunate but the consensus on immigration has been permanently damaged by the policies of the Liberals. I’m expecting the conservatives to cut further if home building doesn’t pick up. Pierre Pollievre has promised to cap population growth below home building. Immigration, which wasn’t a political issue at all has been brought to the forefront of Canadian politics. Who would have thought? It seems that Quebec has already introduced per country caps. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Feds impose those as well to promote diversity.
I agree with the general gist. But, there's a reason for lack of diversity. IEC and other mobility visas give people from developed nations a lot more CRS and options to pick Canadian PRs. Many of the people that I hired under mobility visas left and have no intention of staying here permanently.
My biggest worry with your statement above is that even with country caps, we will still import garbage. It will be "diverse garbage". It will give people who are demanding diversity out of hatred a "peace of mind", but won't solve any real issues.
The core issue is in Failure of Canada to attract good immigrants, which won't go away with country caps or diversity. We need a merit based approach instead (a real one, unlike CRS based system).
The only problem a country cap solves is voting block politics.
If you run the numbers, the amount of capital requires to build 4 million homes doesn't even exist. Given Canada's G7 performance, foreign investment to fuel this project won't be possible either.
How will this “merit based” system be implemented according to you? You will then have to remove the skills based approach which worked very well for Canada all these years and move to a needs based approach, which has a lot of flaws. Turning Canada’s economic immigration system to the ones seen in the EU and US would make it a two step process whereby, people coming in would have to be tied to a job and then they would not be assessed on any other criteria. I don’t think high wage LMIA - Automatic PR on application will work for Canada. In the US, employment based green cards are barely 20% of the overall immigration numbers and even there, a lot of fraud exists within the H1B system. From 2015 to 2019, the points based system for Canada, which was originally introduced by the conservatives, actually helped in improving the GDP per capita of Canada. There’s even data on it. The entire basis for this system was that Governments are very inefficient in determining labour market needs so the best approach is to rank immigrants based on their likelihood to succeed. Those with the highest CRS were determined to have the highest “future earnings” and the best chances of success. Note the emphasis on “future”. The conservative government and economists already knew that immigrants would not immediately succeed upon landing and would be subject to several obstacles and hurdles but would eventually find success based on their skills and would either match or exceed the earnings of Canadian born. The liberals used this approach till 2019 and then completely demolished it. The CRS ranking system has flaws and the the grading system could be tweaked but I’m not sure moving to a different system is beneficial for Canada.
The country that's actually affected by Quebec's country caps is Cameroon, not India.
America's system has never been oriented around economic migration. Their focus has always been family reunification. For an economy of their size - the economic migration that the USA gets every year is miniscule. There's no such thing as an EU-wide immigration system. Every country has different economic migration policies. Germany, for example, just tripled their work visa quota for Indian nationals.
When I say merit, I don't mean to imply automatic PR for anyone. Consider this, a Software architect is likely to have a lower CRS compared to someone with a CEC experience in Tim Hortons. If you see around, many PR immigrants are struggling, primarily because they are unskilled and were able to bloat their CRS that rewarded them for fodder education and professions. Surely, something needs to be done to fix that part as we are importing immigrants that are culturally and economically unfit.
The CRS needs revisiting as 90% of immigrants we see, seem to have no skills or real qualifications. So many of these keep working poor jobs for decades and not sure if they are going to contribute anything meaningful in the future. The rest 10% immigrants actually contribute and the system should be focused on finding more and more of them.
In the US, if I’m not misraken, the economic immigration programs are always tied to the Employer’s needs and not the country’s needs. While there’s no such thing as an EU wide immigration system, most if not all permanent settlement programs involve you already being present in the country while working for an employer. It’s a two step process which Canada adopted for the past few years and has resulted in catastrophic consequences. The Australian and Canadian systems were widely regarded as the best immigration systems in the world before the their respective governments destroyed them in span of 3 years!
Only restaurant managers are eligible for permanent immigration under Canada’s express entry system so I’m not entirely sure if someone serving coffee at Tim Hortons is even eligible for PR. I completely agree with you that the grading system can be tweaked to offer more points to specific courses from specific institutions or specific occupations but the government already prioritized STEM occupations this year and last year. They’ve already transferred focus to specific occupations and those within Canada who are not in those occupations have to achieve scores of 520-539, which is absurd. How would a Tim Hortons barista meet such a score? All I’m saying is that doing away with the CRS system and turning it into what the US has, would be the worst possible move. That would mean that anyone with the a closed work permit or open work permit could apply and get PR.
Well, the federal government could very well folllow Quebec. Even the caps imposed by Quebec are not drastic. It’s 25% per nationality. Currently, Canada has no love for India and contrary to what certain people might claim, nothing is going to change in Canada materially if the number of Indians migrating to Canada drops significantly. Indians were not the largest group of immigrants to Canada during Paul Martin’s and Stephen Harper’s tenures. They certainly did not represent 30 or 40% of the landed immigrants. Canada was not under the verge of collapse nor were things as dire as they are today. Sooner or later, the topics of over representation and diversity will come up and the Federal Government could follow Quebec’s footsteps.
Here's the link to the article. Posting this here because too many people were implying that the nationality affected by the Quebec change were Indians. I even read a post of an RCIC consultant on LinkedIn who said francophone countries were exempt (obviously false - as Cameroon is francophone).
Quebec limits the number of CSQs issued per country under the QSWP | Le Devoir (use Google Translate)
Cameroon accounted for 52% of applicants. So far, it's the only country affected.
The Federal govt's way to "diversify" the pool is to increase French allocation. They've done this again in their latest plans. Would be hilarious if people in India just started learning French in response.
PNP number being slashed in half will have the most effect on young Indians becoming PR because Indian students doing diploma programs seem to rely on PNPs the most.
NOC 2021 Version 1.0 - 62010 - Retail sales supervisors - Unit Group (statcan.gc.ca)
NOC 2021 Version 1.0 - 62020 - Food service supervisors - Unit Group (statcan.gc.ca)
Quebec limits the number of CSQs issued per country under the QSWP | Le Devoir (use Google Translate)
Cameroon accounted for 52% of applicants. So far, it's the only country affected.
For Cameroonians it's drastic. Like the article says they're 52% of applicants.
The Federal govt's way to "diversify" the pool is to increase French allocation. They've done this again in their latest plans. Would be hilarious if people in India just started learning French in response.
PNP number being slashed in half will have the most effect on young Indians becoming PR because Indian students doing diploma programs seem to rely on PNPs the most.
Yeah, the regular workers at Tims are only eligible via PNPs in some provinces like PEI and New Brunswick. Not direct express entry. They could still qualify directly under a supervisor role (easier than manager) under a couple other NOC codes though - if they were intelligent enough to pivot.
NOC 2021 Version 1.0 - 62010 - Retail sales supervisors - Unit Group (statcan.gc.ca)
NOC 2021 Version 1.0 - 62020 - Food service supervisors - Unit Group (statcan.gc.ca)
So my two cents...
Immigration is literally a thing in every single election. This isn't really new at all if you've been voter in Canada for several decades. It's always one of the main platform issues. However I do agree that the focus is a bit different each time.
One year one of the big things was about "strengthing" citizenship rules which then resulted the Conservatives increasing residency requirements to qualify for citizenship and also adding the whole "intent to reside" clause. That was a very big deal for many here on the forum when it happened and was very negative.for many as well. Most don't even remember this now because the Liberals reversed the rule once they got back into power.
Then there was the time the Conservatives canceled most in flight FSW applications. I think that was 2012. That was a huge huge deal. HUGE. I think estimates are that this impacted over a quarter of a million applicants, counting dependents, who already had applications in progress.
Immigration has always been a key platform issue and always will be.
Most changes are typically seen either soon after an election and a party coming into power - or in the period of time leading up to an election, just like we are seeing now.
IMO it's all very predictable. If the Conservatives get into power next, they will say what the Liberals have done is not enough and find ways to cut back further. Same old, same old.