I have been reading my CAIPS and members comments regularly, here are some observations, which may be different from case to case.
After issueing the AOR, the file will be in sitting in the store room for 10-12 months.
10-12 months, file is open and they will request you updated forms, police certificate and the real processing begins.If the medical is expired, remedical.
After 12-14 months if all is fine and you have a very straight forward case, no travel history, marriage genuine etc. If remedical is not already done, they will ask you remedical and PPR or remedical followed by PPR within a month time.
So for straight forward case: 14-16 months.
Now if you case is not straight forward, every time they request you something, it will add average 2.5 months to your case. IO will open the file, request the concer department to issue the letter, it will take 20 days approx. Letter will be issued, 45 days to comply, file will be reopen on 45th day, sometime if they dont have a slot, it will be more than that. So imagine, if they request you two letters, it will add 5 months to your case, which means you are standing at 20 months time and if they out your interview queue, then there is no timeline.
irsum said:
My understanding is that the timeline quoted for 80 percent cases is not really average time. It actually means that 80 percent cases are completed within 26 months. Which in turn means that 26 months is the longest period for a case in that 80 percent. As you raise the percentage, the timeline goes up dramatically...for example 100 precent cases would have a time line of infinity because there would be at least one case that, for whatever reasons, is never completed. Few years ago (2008 or 2009 not sure) the timeline for Islamabad use to be 6 months but in those days they were using the time based of completion of 50 percent cases. I do think that part of the reason for timeline increase is that they have changed their basis from 50 to 80 percent. But that is just a part..no doubt about it there is a very significant increase even if reported at the old basis of 50 percent cases.