Ray Of Hope - 87th Draw

[shubham710]

Finally on the 5th attempt got LRWS 88.57.57.5. Score bumped to 459.

Hoping to receive the ITA in the next draw.

Best of luck to all

 

[annevn8]

Mine was 8.5 L, 7 R, 7S and W 6,5 became 7.5

some people said no benefit of remarking if we have difference of 2 or more bands in two modules..
because then it is automatically checked for writing and speaking through two different examiners...
did you have 8.5 in any module when u had 6.5 in writing? perhaps not according to people theory...

ine

 

[desmat]

Mine was 8.5 L, 7 R, 7S and W 6,5 became 7.5

ine

thats good to know... i have 9 in reading but 6.5 in speaking...so should i go for remarking.. actually i know i did not do well in speaking as i got nervous like a stage fear thing during that time..

 

[bsingha]

Need some with ineligible profile. I opened my profile on Nov 6th last year with a score of 432. Updated twice, once with spouse's WES info and second time with CELPIP score. However yesterday I suddenly received email from CIC saying that I am no longer eligible for express entry. I opened another profile with all the same info that shows I am eligible and currently in the pool. Has this ever happened to anyone else?

 

[Varunaimar]

Again wrong.

Last year only app. 1/4 of all PNP used EE. This year (if Alberta will kick in) it would be somewhere around 1/3
Plus the average family size is more around 1.9 per application. (some people do not have spouse but other do have children on the top which also count as landed immigrant).

73700 ÷ 1.9 = 38800 fsw + cec ITA
51000 ÷ 4 = 12750 ÷ 1.9 = 6710 pnp ITA.
Total 45510 ITAs.
If 40% ITAs were wasted.
45510 × 0.4 = 18210 wasted ITAs.

Totoal needed ITA was
45510 + 18210 = 63720 ITAs.

Which would mean, that they invited too many people and now they are cooling down. That is why you see 3 weeks gap.

There might be since truth to your theory. Since December 2017, we've had 3 draws with 3 week gaps, an unprecedented move.
Truth to be told, I'm sorry but I still do not understand the reason behind the sharp spike in the numbers between 451-600 in the March 14 draw. Can someone explain why it happened, please?

 

[abhishek_89]

Oh! My bad.
But looking at 2017 data it looks like no. ITAs should be more than PR targets under FSW stream.
Total number of ITAs issued in 2017: 86,023 vs. FSW target 73700.
Any thoughts?

It could be the case or it could be that in 2017 they issued more ITAs then were required and overshot the target.

 

[Varunaimar]

It could be the case or it could be that in 2017 they issued more ITAs then were required and overshot the target.

My thoughts exactly. Bro, could you please throw some light on the high number of candidates between 451-600 on March 14 draw? I do remember you said that the spike was temporary... And you were right. But what was the reason behind it?

 

[ishq74]

It could be the case or it could be that in 2017 they issued more ITAs then were required and overshot the target.

Not a perfect theory that they had overshoot the target! This is a government plan and the immigration ministry is bound to answer the parliament about any deviation from the actual target. What if mejority of the issued ITAs were successful, how they would have accommodated those extra PR in the targeted 73700? We did not hear from any government or non government resources that they have gone over the target! And I do not believe they purposely kept some applicant awaiting untill 2018 just because they could not accommodate them in 2017, that would be a major lie from Canadian government. Being one of the most transparent countries in the world, I am sure they haven't done something like this.

 

[Maphil]

Just got 8 point with previous mark of 435 from spouse. My total crs is now 443. My birthday is on the 20 April while my profile is expiring on the 18th. Any hope for me in the next draw to say am worried is an understatement. Any prediction, suggestions or advice would be welcome

 

[vensak]

There might be since truth to your theory. Since December 2017, we've had 3 draws with 3 week gaps, an unprecedented move.
Truth to be told, I'm sorry but I still do not understand the reason behind the sharp spike in the numbers between 451-600 in the March 14 draw. Can someone explain why it happened, please?

3 main reasons for the spike:
1. the big gap of 3 weeks.
2. higher volume of PNP (you can see hint of this when checking the 1 week before the draw data)
3. several IELTS results were released and while some hurried to put them for February draw, some were waiting for their hard copies to arrive and they put their results a bit later (again you can see hint of it in the released data).

Next draw went down because of less PNP and normal amount amount of new profiles and profile improvements. However because of slow accumulation of profiles between 440 and 450 it did not drop that much (for less than 2 weeks gap).

What is clear, that competition is there and many people have understood it and are now going for new IELTS attempts + anything else that can help them (TEF or a new diploma).

 

[abhishek_89]

My thoughts exactly. Bro, could you please throw some light on the high number of candidates between 451-600 on March 14 draw? I do remember you said that the spike was temporary... And you were right. But what was the reason behind it?

The reason for a spike in candidates between 601-1200 can be only due to a surge in nominations during the said period but the reason for a spike in candidates between 451-600 can be due to multiple reasons - more number of folks applying for PR with Masters or Canadian work experience, lots of successful IELTS applicants in a test (CLB9 or above), etc. and it needn't be a temporary spike.

Also, the number of applicants are predicted to increase this year compared to last year due to the below reasons-
Immigration consultancies are marketing Canada aggressively due to the low cut offs last year (reached an all time low of CRS 413)
Easy target for immigrants with a CLB9+Masters
US to Canada immigration of temporary visa holders due to the uncertainty there (and most of them have Masters)

When I 1st came to know about the express entry process through an immigration consultancy in Feb 2016, it was a pretty low profile thing and not many were aware of the same. Today (2 years later), almost everybody I know has either heard about the process OR are interested to migrate OR are in the process of applying (for IELTS or ECA).

Canada has become one of the most sought after immigration destinations due to its easy immigration process and it being close to the US (which is now considered to be a tough destination to immigrate to).

 

[basheerahmed]

Mine was 8.5 L, 7 R, 7S and W 6,5 became 7.5

ine

Would you mind me If I ask you from which country you attempted the test? IDP/BC?

 

[jagan4u]

Any predictions for the next draw please ?

 

[abhishek_89]

Not a perfect theory that they had overshoot the target! This is a government plan and the immigration ministry is bound to answer the parliament about any deviation from the actual target. What if mejority of the issued ITAs were successful, how they would have accommodated those extra PR in the targeted 73700? We did not hear from any government or non government resources that they have gone over the target! And I do not believe they purposely kept some applicant awaiting untill 2018 just because they could not accommodate them in 2017, that would be a major lie from Canadian government. Being one of the most transparent countries in the world, I am sure they haven't done something like this.

We still do not know for sure what are they considering as their PR target - is it successful landing or is it approval of PR application?
Unless the immigrant lands he/she is not considered as a PR. I got my PR approved in 2017 but I landed and became PR in 2018 so would I be counted in the target for 2017 or 2018?

For easier tracking of the targets, they may be considering approval of PR application as the condition to meet the target. So if that is the case, then ITAs issued in the later part of 2017, don't get considered in the 2017 quota instead they get considered in the 2018 quota if they get approved in 2018. So there are a lot of variables and we cannot assume anything based on the number of ITAs they issued in a particular period.

And they need not keep any applications waiting, because there could be applicants who received ITA in Oct 2017 or later who have not even submitted their applications to CIC till 2018.
CIC would always do some analysis based on the past data they have before arriving at the number of ITAs being issued as can be noted with the fact that they change it time and again.

Once the report for 2017 is release, we would know more accurate details. Till then, all we can do is assume based on what trends we see right now.

Also, having higher number of ITAs towards the later part of the year would ensure that they do not overshoot targets and also to ensure the system remains competitive.

For example, if CIC issues 60,000 ITAs in 1 shot on Jan 1st, the cut off would be in the 300's but if they do the same by splitting the 60,000 throughout the year, the cut off can be retained in the 400's as more number of people would be applying throughout the year.

 

[gocan2018]

We still do not know for sure what are they considering as their PR target - is it successful landing or is it approval of PR application?
Unless the immigrant lands he/she is not considered as a PR. I got my PR approved in 2017 but I landed and became PR in 2018 so would I be counted in the target for 2017 or 2018?

For easier tracking of the targets, they may be considering approval of PR application as the condition to meet the target. So if that is the case, then ITAs issued in the later part of 2017, don't get considered in the 2017 quota instead they get considered in the 2018 quota if they get approved in 2018. So there are a lot of variables and we cannot assume anything based on the number of ITAs they issued in a particular period.

And they need not keep any applications waiting, because there could be applicants who received ITA in Oct 2017 or later who have not even submitted their applications to CIC till 2018.
CIC would always do some analysis based on the past data they have before arriving at the number of ITAs being issued as can be noted with the fact that they change it time and again.

Once the report for 2017 is release, we would know more accurate details. Till then, all we can do is assume based on what trends we see right now.

Also, having higher number of ITAs towards the later part of the year would ensure that they do not overshoot targets and also to ensure the system remains competitive.

For example, if CIC issues 60,000 ITAs in 1 shot on Jan 1st, the cut off would be in the 300's but if they do the same by splitting the 60,000 throughout the year, the cut off can be retained in the 400's as more number of people would be applying throughout the year.

Any predictions for next score @abhishek_89 ? When do you think CRS might hit 431? Do you see any possibility by April end?