Ray of Hope - 84th Draw

[Gman2018]

I understand why everyone with CRS 440 and 441 will want to panic and accept NOI but let me shed some light on the data received today and what I can interpret.

First of all the PNPs, there is high chance a small province issued a backlog of PNP all together and they all enter the pool the week of 7th to 15th otherwise PNP have only been more than 300 after one week only twice in the past.

The influx at 451 to 600 is an anomaly that corrected itself the following week. That is 900 from 7th to 15th was really unusual and 15th to 21st was significantly lower.

Let me explain. If you think the trend shown during 7th to 15th continued the following week then as at time of the draw, the pool will look like this.

600 to 1200. 700
451 to 600. 1800

Now notice that is already 2500.

Meaning only 500 left for 441 to 450.

There is no way 500 was able to clear 443 to 450 and the backlog at 442.

The only reasonable explanation is during 15th to 21st.

Both PNP 600 to 1200 and the high score of 451 to 600. Were significantly lower than the previous week which we know to be 350 and 900 candidates.

By my own estimation backlog cleared at 442 was about 380 and new profile at 443 to 450 was about 480 for a total of 850.

Meaning the 500 left if we double the 7th to 15th breakdown is not visible.

Hence I estimated that for 15th to 21st the addition for over 600 was about 200 candidates which is normal and for 451 to 600 it was about 700 candidates which is also normal.

Therefore the reason for this unusual draw was an influx of high crs during 7th to 15th and that trend was not sustained the following week of 15th to 21st.

The reason could be backlog of IELTS or it could be other reasons as well.

Anyways I wish you all good luck.

Your observations are spot on. I must also add the likely cause of the surge was the backlog in releasing ielts results.

 

[desocavesc]

I am in the exact same boat as you (438 points and got NOI on 12th Feb). Curious to see if we can get in during the draws on Mar 7th or Mar 21st.

i am at 438. profile updated on 2nd Jan 2018. I got my OINP NOI on Feb 12th I think. I've started my OINP profile but still hoping the cut-off somehow drops.

I`m joining you guys in that boat. But I`m not going for OINP for sure. Decided to wait for direct ITA. Good luck for us all.

 

[Sandeep198511]

Thanks buddy...Hope you too make it soon

Wish you both best of luck...

 

[silverwoolfe]

stuck at 431.

 

[Lala1234]

Wish you both best of luck...

Thanks buddy...

 

[rajats13]

Hi all,

Just wanted to know about your views on ONIP.

I got a sense here that many people are not keen to go for that. What are the pros and cons for ONIP.

My CRS is 423, and while I am in no particular hurry, want to get some views on ONIP or other provincial supports

Thanks in advance for your views.

 

[jackdawn]

Congratulation to all who received an ITA

Good luck to all waiting

 

[s.sh87]

Lets see what luck next draw brings.

Congratulations to all yesterday ITA receivers.

 

[s.sh87]

same boat ..i am at 438 coz of one celpip level 8 on writing instead of 9 and thats costing me a whooping 44 points.at 423 you are unlikely to get an ita honestly unless we have three four back to back draws. oinp thru human capital stream also for your score is unlikely and so you left with other streams and depending on your eligibility you may qualify for them.

Why you think human capital stream at 423 is unlikely?

 

[journey21]

stuck at 431.

Try and improve yr IELTS score if possible.
Maximize.

 

[alexross]

Calculations I have done on net new applicants entering the pool at different CRS point levels, based on the CRS pool distributions:

From oct 26th to Nov 9th:
above 440: 171 per day
above 430: 239 per day
above 410: 272 per day

From Nov 9th to Nov 30th:
above 440:174 per day
above 430:213 per day
above 410:237 per day

Nov 30th to Dec 18th:
above 440:171 per day
above 430:197 per day
above 410:215 per day

Dec 18th to Jan 4th
above 440:161 per day
above 430:195 per day
above 410:211 per day

Jan 4th to Jan 18th:
above 440:163 per day
above 430:193 per day
above 410:221 per day

from Jan 18th to Feb 1st:
above 440:186 per day
above 430:216 per day
above 410:258 per day

From Feb 1st to Feb 15th:
above 440:227 per day
above 430:257 per day
above 410:278 per day

For those interested in how the calculations are done, here is a sample:

For example, lets take calculation for above 440 from Dec 18th to Jan 4th:
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Jan 4th= 233+1374+1274=2881
All those with CRS points 440 and above on Dec 18th=420+1211+1260=2891
We know that the Jan 4th value is = Dec 18th value + net entrants into pool (i.e new entrants - expired entries) - ITAs from Dec 20th
2881=2891 + net entrants - 2750
2881-2891+2750=net entrants
So we have net entrants between Jan 4th and Dec 18th with crs above 440 = 2740
Therefore we have average entrants per day above 440 between Jan 4th and Dec 18th= 2740/17=161

 

[Johnny Ghaddar]

I`m joining you guys in that boat. But I`m not going for OINP for sure. Decided to wait for direct ITA. Good luck for us all.

Count me in too at 438...however I will be opting for OINP if the score doesn't fall in the next two rounds...

 

[Abhishek.s1990]

I cant find ROH 85 @abhishek_89 help me

 

[Pikecann]

I cant find ROH 85 @abhishek_89 help me

https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-85th-draw.545090/page-35

 

[Abhishek.s1990]

https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/ray-of-hope-85th-draw.545090/page-35

thanks man