Ray of Hope - 84th Draw

[Akta28390]

Whats your CRS?

CRS 441....profile created on 5th Jan 2018

 

[abhishek_89]

Yep ,fingers crossed. I was hoping that this draw would fall to 440 at least . what are you planning to do with your OINP? my thought is that I'll wait for two more draws, then submit my OINP if i do not get in. The OINP process is going to take 6 months , post which we get 600 additional points. My guess is in those 6 months the CRS cut-off should drop in the 430's. At which point I might have to withdraw my OINP and lose $1500. Basically putting $1500 down the drain for peace of mind.

@abhishek_89 your thoughts on this?

With 2 week gap draws and 3000 ITAs, we can expect the cut off to go down but gradually as it did today. For example, the next few draws could have 441 as the cut off before moving to 440.

 

[karthik1990]

I got the email. Congrats to everyone who got the invitation

 

[abhishek_89]

That is my plan as well. I was looking at last year's data and it looks like starting March the scores fell into the 430s.....however, I don't know if historical data has much value and we are seeing a lot of people getting into the pool at 440+ which makes it harder for you and I to get above the cut off.

The $1500 is large amount of money and I hate to throw it away. I am curious if there is any way to extend the 45 days timeline or somehow delay the payment portion of it. Keeping fingers crossed. Hopefully @abhishek_89 can chime in as his data and predictions have been very reliable.

Last year when the cut off came down drastically, there was not much influx in the 420-450 range as nobody was expecting direct ITAs with those scores so the number of applicants stuck at those scores were way less. Also, there were many 1 week gap draws and the number of ITAs being issued was close to 4000.

 

[abhishek_89]

CRS 441....profile created on 5th Jan 2018

If the next draw is on March 7th with 3000 ITAs, you might get an ITA or just miss it due to the tie breaker rule as the cut off is most likely going to be 441.
I am not sure how OINP considers the 45 day deadline. Maybe somebody else could help.

 

[abhishek_89]

Not to respond for @perpetualROH, but we are both at 438.

With CRS 438, if you are looking to get a direct ITA before your NOI expires, you need to be desperately hoping for 1 week gap draws. Otherwise with 3000 ITAs being issued every 2 weeks, the cut off is not going to go to 438 that soon.

 

[NSA82]

need advice from experts here. I received the ITA today. I had submitted my application for OINP about 10 days back and its still not under processing. Now that I have the ITA, should I safely withdraw my application from OINP? Is there any downside of doing so? Really lost and need guidance here.

 

[Ragnar19]

You are absolutely wrong. OINP process takes hardly 1 month to process. Don’t misguide the audience

Yep ,fingers crossed. I was hoping that this draw would fall to 440 at least . what are you planning to do with your OINP? my thought is that I'll wait for two more draws, then submit my OINP if i do not get in. The OINP process is going to take 6 months , post which we get 600 additional points. My guess is in those 6 months the CRS cut-off should drop in the 430's. At which point I might have to withdraw my OINP and lose $1500. Basically putting $1500 down the drain for peace of mind.

@abhishek_89 your thoughts on this?

 

[maplov]

Received the ITA email!

 

[javier.abraham]

Thank you. So they do all components or we can request any one ? is there a chance for other components to go down in anyway. i heard listening and reading will not change at all. is there a time frame to apply. We took exam on 16th of December. is it too late ? I was positive right from Dec 29th that i will get the ITA but losing the hopes as last 2 months draw even come close to 440. So exploring the option to reevaluate. Unless i do Masters or take french. No real possibility to increase the score.

Sadly the time to request it already passed as it is no later than 6 weeks after taking the test.

Just for the sake of information...the scores will never decrease and you are allowed to request it for all the components if you wish or just the ones you want to be revised.

With a CRS of 440 you should be in withing a month (2 Draws), my advice would be to take that time to gather all the documents you will need to submit after ITA so that you can submit your profile right away.

 

[Emnafrancks]

NOI

Yep ,fingers crossed. I was hoping that this draw would fall to 440 at least . what are you planning to do with your OINP? my thought is that I'll wait for two more draws, then submit my OINP if i do not get in. The OINP process is going to take 6 months , post which we get 600 additional points. My guess is in those 6 months the CRS cut-off should drop in the 430's. At which point I might have to withdraw my OINP and lose $1500. Basically putting $1500 down the drain for peace of mind.

@abhishek_89 your thoughts on this?

NOi processing time is 30-60 days . Max 90 days

 

[Emnafrancks]

need advice from experts here. I received the ITA today. I had submitted my application for OINP about 10 days back and its still not under processing. Now that I have the ITA, should I safely withdraw my application from OINP? Is there any downside of doing so? Really lost and need guidance here.

Yes. Withdraw and ur 1500 CAD will be refunded

 

[aKhaista]

got the ITA. Thanks to all for the help and support in the PRE ITA phase. Best of luck to all those who are still in the pool

 

[oshin]

Got my husband’s ITA too. Thanks everyone for the ray of hope. 428 initially and took CELPIP thus it increase to 440, then apply for reevaluation for Writing and finally reached 442!

I have a few questions below and appreciate if someone can kindly take time to respond:
1. He is under OWP (I am currently an International student). All of our permit and visa will expire June 2018. When can he apply for Bridging wp?
2. What will happen to us who now becomes his dependent under PR? Can we be included in the bridging program too?
3. Should i re-enrol again for a new course to maintain my status and my son who is schooling in G6?

Thanks everyone!

 

[Jakilee]

I understand why everyone with CRS 440 and 441 will want to panic and accept NOI but let me shed some light on the data received today and what I can interpret.

First of all the PNPs, there is high chance a small province issued a backlog of PNP all together and they all enter the pool the week of 7th to 15th otherwise PNP have only been more than 300 after one week only twice in the past.

The influx at 451 to 600 is an anomaly that corrected itself the following week. That is 900 from 7th to 15th was really unusual and 15th to 21st was significantly lower.

Let me explain. If you think the trend shown during 7th to 15th continued the following week then as at time of the draw, the pool will look like this.

600 to 1200. 700
451 to 600. 1800

Now notice that is already 2500.

Meaning only 500 left for 441 to 450.

There is no way 500 was able to clear 443 to 450 and the backlog at 442.

The only reasonable explanation is during 15th to 21st.

Both PNP 600 to 1200 and the high score of 451 to 600. Were significantly lower than the previous week which we know to be 350 and 900 candidates.

By my own estimation backlog cleared at 442 was about 380 and new profile at 443 to 450 was about 480 for a total of 850.

Meaning the 500 left if we double the 7th to 15th breakdown is not visible.

Hence I estimated that for 15th to 21st the addition for over 600 was about 200 candidates which is normal and for 451 to 600 it was about 700 candidates which is also normal.

Therefore the reason for this unusual draw was an influx of high crs during 7th to 15th and that trend was not sustained the following week of 15th to 21st.

The reason could be backlog of IELTS or it could be other reasons as well.

Anyways I wish you all good luck.