Ray of Hope - 119th Draw

[NikSharma01]

74900 was a number of landed immigrants. Offcourse, not every issued ITA converts to a PR, which is why they issue extra ITAs. It was the same case in 2017 as well as 2018. We are hoping for the same in 2019 and that's why we r high on hopes. Based on the same logic we can confidently say that atleast 94000 ITAs will be issued.

Exactly! That's what I've been saying from the last few weeks. There is a huge difference between number of immigrants and itas. Significantly, ITA number is always greater than the fixed targets and thus, it will be continued in the future as well.

 

[NikSharma01]

Exactly! The ceiling for this year is 86000. Even if they issue just 86000, even then CRS has to drop to at least mid 440's.
There has been lots of disappointment in this forum after recent rounds, but that's just shortsightedness.

No offence, but take a look at the bigger picture! You ll see not just a 'ray of hope' rather then entire Sun gleaming in its full glory.

Nope! Indeed it could surpass the figure of 90000+ ITAs this year.

 

[Not_Your_Donkey_Kong]

Nope! Indeed it could surpass the figure of 90000+ ITAs this year.

I was being hypothetical for the sake of it haha. I meant that they cannot even achieve the target of 86000 with the observed inflow of 450+ applicants (no wastage).
And since there is always wastage, that gives even more reason to believe that cut off will fall to levels lower than 450.

 

[Mr_fabrizio]

CURRENT INTERNAL CRS TRACKER STATUS

(Updated till 12:00 PM IST today) CRS summary of active members waiting for Golden ITA:

• 460+ (Total 10) - kevwe91: 493 | KayPi: 468 | Ontario@Canada: 463 | Jabya: 463 | ashwin863: 462 | huesso: 462 | ajangbar001: 461 | meet0708: 461 | parth7d: 461 | Yukti2406: 461

• 455-460 (Total 12) – ryeCatcher: 460 | Punitsingh: 459 | MuibKhan: 458 | chirkut: 458 | #EEC: 457 | sarak1812: 457 | royalking: 456 | phuketlove: 456 | SimonSaleh: 456 | Sara890: 455 | Eddiesol: 455 | Nsidhu: 455

• 450-454 (Total 26) - Folaroyal: 453 | madhav_91: 453 | Suhasrs: 452 | sehgaljps: 452 | cdddelhi: 451 | Bageshree: 451 | praveen22: 451 | captainUT: 451 | 13nitinsharma: 450 | kalex123: 450 | nehadeep: 450 | jkaur95: 450 | shamu2013: 450 | hakweye: 450 | parvin2019: 450 | ekta29: 450 | skg1988: 450 | DreamITA: 450 | mamuso: 450 | vmsanthosh.chn: 450 | akm_11: 450 | anusha1712: 450 | mominmalik5: 450 | mandiebraxton: 450 | xyz2017: 450 | Avmaia: 450

• 445-449 (Total 54) - Shaanoh: 449 | Div_newbie:449 | veritas1994: 449 | dappy9: 449 | Manru:449 | AnkitaShukla: 449 | a.altigani: 449 | IndianFam: 449 | prsingh: 449 | SanjibSaha: 449 | kvaram_62: 449 |nitinkalra07: 449 | patel_d07: 448 | EnthuChap: 448 | shine04: 448 | Agarwalparesh26: 448 | Tivativalu: 448 | AmeyaGodbole: 448 | Tilly3: 448 | M2a3r4y5a6m: 448 | SimonSaleh: 448 | Hydowwu: 448 | msgill88:448 | Lazybug: 448 | matteis:447 | D'trox: 447 | Noopur_23: 447 | Ravi_15: 447 | Meer85: 447 | Flowerview: 447 | armaanwadhwa: 447| nikki1992: 447 | Saial: 447 | Ranjitrip: 447 | shaunk_redemption: 447 | Brian_natt: 447 | infectious: 447 | LKRYA: 447 | Reet_123: 446 | Kk1234:446 | SASH8288: 446 | Sreedev83: 446 | MynameisMTS: 446 | RochelleAlford: 446 | rahulkraju: 446 | epema.kz: 446 | prince_lords:445 | Uchyann: 445 | frightenedpanda: 445 | dawak: 445 | nolimits7405: 445 | Boluwaduro: 445 | asad_ali_awan: 445 | MittalM: 445 | siataheri:445 | Yiss: 445 | IeltsDream2019: 445

• 441-444 (Total 31) - NikSharma01:444 | NishaKirthi: 444 | Sonammahajan: 444 | mominmalik5: 444 | kadeed:444 | Jms_16: 444 | v_nitesh_k: 444 | Ainpeespirant: 443 | MzBAH: 443 | gmi3001:443 | pursuit: 443 | ravinder_singh:443 | sidra91: 443 | rharmon: 443 | seff786: 443 | seff786: 443| aloobharta01:442 | Kiamin: 442 | tani: 442 | MV18: 442 | Shishir Chandra Kumar: 441 | SociallyAwkward: 441 | BumbleFrisbee: 441 | Ram89: 441 | intels: 441 | Maalee: 441 | SJ24: 441 | anandthepilot: 441 | beluluba: 441 | Mukeshprasada: 441 | akhil994: 441

• 435-440 (Total 15) - bluehorse:440 | Tamilan8: 440 | Chavoshhh: 440 | ppa: 440 | Siddharth-BOM: 438 | cadiee:438 | :438 | Sara1981:438 | rdj08: 438 | Nidsy: 438 | ghvijay: 438 | Vive: 438 | Kiamin: 437 | Sam0301: 437 | sheikh.abaz: 435

• Below 435 (Total 5) - Life79: 432 | Day2203: 431 | moto90: 424 | AND IND: 423 | Sdabas: 421

Please share your updated CRS score if you're not included in this list.

My CRS score is 462

 

[NikSharma01]

I was being hypothetical for the sake of it haha. I meant that they cannot even achieve the target of 86000 with the observed inflow of 450+ applicants (no wastage).
And since there is always wastage, that gives even more reason to believe that cut off will fall to levels lower than 450.

Yepp! A great number of ITAs are always declined, although we don't exactly know what is the figure of waste ITAs!?

 

[waleedbinrasheed]

That is weird, from what I understand score is locked when you receive an ITA and after that it wouldn’t be a matter of concern as FSW points for age are the same until the age of 35.

The following is quoted from a Q&A by David Cohen.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cicnews.com/2017/03/canadian-immigration-questions-answers-attorney-david-cohen-4-3-038980.html/amp

Also this article explains the exemption policy by CIC in such cases.

https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/publications-manuals/operational-bulletins-manuals/permanent-residence/express-entry/assessing-electronic-application-on-section-a11-2.html

Sounds weird, right? But what I stated above stands true!
Go to the second link you shared, you will find the text mentioned as below:

An applicant’s CRS score is automatically recorded in GCMS at the time when

• their ITA is issued; and
• their e-APR is submitted.

At the time of the e-APR, processing officers should compare both CRS scores to determine which of the following scenarios should be applied:

• If the applicant’s CRS score at the time of the e-APR is equal to or higher than the lowest-ranked score in the round of invitations, the application will not be refused under section A11.2, as long as the applicant’s supporting documentation corroborates their claims and they continue to meet the MEC for Express Entry, including the requirements of the program to which they were invited to apply.
• If the applicant’s CRS score at the time of the e-APR is lower than the lowest-ranked score in the round of invitations, the application should be refused under section A11.2 for not having maintained the qualifications that would justify the ITA

EDIT : On the same official link, there is an exemption stated for candidates having birthday between ITA and eAPR. See below for reference:

Exemption to section A11.2: candidates whose birthday occurs after they receive an ITA
An applicant may have a birthday after they receive an ITA but before they submit their e-APR. Their change in age may lower their CRS score below the lowest score in the round of invitations. It may also result in the applicant no longer meeting the minimum requirements of the FSWC and, consequently, no longer meeting the MEC, resulting in a refusal based on section A11.2.

When a change in age results in the candidate no longer meeting the MEC or having their recalculated CRS points score fall below the lowest points score in that round of invitations, officers should consider applying the public policy to exempt applicants for permanent residence from certain age-based requirements between invitation to apply and application, based on section A25.2. This consideration can result in an exemption from the refusal of an application under section A11.2.

This public policy also grants an exemption to applicants who may be refused for failing to meet FSWC program requirements when their birthday occurs between the ITA and e-APR.

 

[nadal87]

Sounds weird, right? But what I stated above stands true!
Go to the second link you shared, you will find the text mentioned as below:

An applicant’s CRS score is automatically recorded in GCMS at the time when

• their ITA is issued; and
• their e-APR is submitted.

At the time of the e-APR, processing officers should compare both CRS scores to determine which of the following scenarios should be applied:

• If the applicant’s CRS score at the time of the e-APR is equal to or higher than the lowest-ranked score in the round of invitations, the application will not be refused under section A11.2, as long as the applicant’s supporting documentation corroborates their claims and they continue to meet the MEC for Express Entry, including the requirements of the program to which they were invited to apply.
• If the applicant’s CRS score at the time of the e-APR is lower than the lowest-ranked score in the round of invitations, the application should be refused under section A11.2 for not having maintained the qualifications that would justify the ITA

EDIT : On the same official link, there is an exemption stated for candidates having birthday between ITA and eAPR. See below for reference:

Exemption to section A11.2: candidates whose birthday occurs after they receive an ITA
An applicant may have a birthday after they receive an ITA but before they submit their e-APR. Their change in age may lower their CRS score below the lowest score in the round of invitations. It may also result in the applicant no longer meeting the minimum requirements of the FSWC and, consequently, no longer meeting the MEC, resulting in a refusal based on section A11.2.

When a change in age results in the candidate no longer meeting the MEC or having their recalculated CRS points score fall below the lowest points score in that round of invitations, officers should consider applying the public policy to exempt applicants for permanent residence from certain age-based requirements between invitation to apply and application, based on section A25.2. This consideration can result in an exemption from the refusal of an application under section A11.2.

This public policy also grants an exemption to applicants who may be refused for failing to meet FSWC program requirements when their birthday occurs between the ITA and e-APR.

Right. So the exemption applies in that case and the application would not be refused; even if, the CRS score at the time of e-APR is less than that of the score that person had, when their ITA was issued.

 

[hakweye]

Draw possibility on , Jun 5th with increased ITA, we have a maintenance notice

If we do have this draw, it could be 455~454/3500 , 453~452/3750, 451/3900


This online service will be unavailable from 2:30 a.m. to 5:30 a.m. Eastern time, onTuesday June 4, 2019, in order to perform system maintenance.

 

[Jabya]

Yepp! A great number of ITAs are always declined, although we don't exactly know what is the figure of waste ITAs!?

Also waste ITAs includes fake profiles, which could be surely a significant number

 

[SeniorStakes]

Draw possibility on , Jun 5th with increased ITA, we have a maintenance notice

If we do have this draw, it could be 455~454/3500 , 453~452/3750, 451/3900


This online service will be unavailable from 2:30 a.m. to 5:30 a.m. Eastern time, onTuesday June 4, 2019, in order to perform system maintenance.

This is slightly aggressive estimate.

 

[LKRYA]

Draw possibility on , Jun 5th with increased ITA, we have a maintenance notice

If we do have this draw, it could be 455~454/3500 , 453~452/3750, 451/3900


This online service will be unavailable from 2:30 a.m. to 5:30 a.m. Eastern time, onTuesday June 4, 2019, in order to perform system maintenance.

sadly, I think scores will be slightly higher than this mate. +3 in each category. But hopeful for the rest of the year. we will definitely see a drop.

 

[armaanwadhwa]

I just hope there's a draw this WEDNESDAY as we have the hopes now. It would be quite a disaster if it doesn't happen.

 

[LKRYA]

Did anyone notice how CIC sneakily decreased the number of ITA's from 3900 to 3350 in January?
In the first two draws of the year i.e Jan 9 and Jan 23, the number of ITA's issued was 3900. And every draw after that came with 3350 ITA's.

This information might not seem much but I believe CIC is up to something, which can be allowing a steady build up of candidates above 430's so that the CRS might not stabilise at a cut off lower than what they desire.

I mean look at it this way. They sure want more immigrants, and the target is higher this year, but they want rather better equipped immigrants.
These recent draws with abnoramly high cut offs are thus, in my opinion, an effort to create a bottleneck. They just can't open the floodgates. They have to take control. 'Planned Immigration' isn't it?

The silver lining though, they can't keep doing this forever. Also, they have achieved what they set out to do (allowing the build up of candidates). So, sooner, they ll have to increase the ITA's, in their own interest. And as a consequence of that, CRS will fall, and for a time stabilise at 440's like always. It just has to. Makes no sense otherwise. Also, they can't fill up the target without dropping to 440's even if they conduct no draws till the last week of December and then conduct a mega draw issuing the entirety of residuary ITA's. The maths just won't agree to that!

35100 ITA's issued. Mean target 86000. 6 months to go. That comes down to 8500 450+ candidates each month. Just no way can they achieve target with just 450+.

Senior members, any views on this?

This assumption does not justify the draw happened on 30th Jan at 438 which created the current disaster we are facing. At the end of the day navigation wheel is in CIC hands. They will take turn when ever they want to. All we can do is wait till some miracle happens.
One can argue it is unfair a 438 candidate getting selected in Jan and now 450+ people biting nails without an ITA. make no sense. All we could hope is this high tide will kiss the sand soon.

 

[meiqian]

good to see so many people got invitations from Ontario. happy for you guys.

i got CSR 450 with 2yr+ experience in NOC 1113

I know this NOC is not as hot as many others... Is that the reason i why didnt get an invite?

Hopefully the points will drop below 450 sometime this year. fingers crossed

 

[EnthuChap]

I was being hypothetical for the sake of it haha. I meant that they cannot even achieve the target of 86000 with the observed inflow of 450+ applicants (no wastage).
And since there is always wastage, that gives even more reason to believe that cut off will fall to levels lower than 450.

Even the most skecptical people, including ones who get ignored here, will agree that even with regular draws at 3350, score did fall to 450 and 450+ left in the pool were 1700. So we had reached the point where 450 was about to get breached. Wonder why people keep saying it won't fall below 450 this year!

Even the most knowledgeable people and licensed agents have gone on to say that 94000 ITAs is a certainty. Therefore, 56000 ITAs are yet to be distributed in 7 months i.e. 8000 ITAs per month.

Yes, there is a greater competition, interest, adverse political environment etc but it is also true that there aren't so many 450 applicants. If CIC is serious about achieving their goal set by their minister Mr Hussein, then 450 bubble, although late, but will burst surely.