Your analysis are compelete hoax there were only 60,000 active pool members as of on 3rd jan 2016. EE year end report stated that. And only 15,000 candidates were above 400 points upto the level of 1200. Now in this year thousands have already got invitations and thousands are also coming in. So if there are 75,000 applicants active as of now. I think there will be at max 20,000 applicants in the bracket of 400-500. And around 60% of them would be FSW or CEC as they are the ones who constantly wants to increase their points either by retaking language tests or getting more work experience. Intl students needs 1-2 yr exp CLB 8 and bachelors to get them 420. And I think they already qualify for CEC by getting work experience. So at max there will be aroumd 7-8K intl students will be around in the bracket of 430-440 which will give them 460-470 thus making first few draws high scoring. As ITAs number are going up we will see this clearing up quickly. With existing getting cleared in about say 3-4 months the new lot will not come in fast because getting a bachelors degree requires time. So they will not come as fast as we were getting the people whom were getting LMIAs and guarantee ITA. In this case the scores will drop. I will not say it will go below 400 or coming down to 400. But after some draws it will certainly go below 450 down to the level of 425.