Yeah the sample size is too small. There are only 38 people with the following AOR to PPR timelines: 112, 82, 64, 94, 86, 78, 153, 74, 68, 90, 88, 106, 69, 105, 82, 55, 66, 98, 59, 118, 129, 48, 114, 84, 91, 156, 111, 111, 118, 130, 91, 101, 133, 119, 117, 91, 91, 62.
Since Nov, Oct and Sep AORs are included one would expect a few long ones in the 180 to 200 day range. But there are none. So while the sample is small it does highlight a trend. The average comes out to 95.89 days. Increasing this average by 10% to account for sample size limitations gives 105 days. This would be a fair estimate I believe. There may be a slight slowing as noticed in the fall in June PPR numbers. So another 10% increase gives us 115 days. No other choice but to brace for it while hoping for the best (update in the 85 to 95 day range).
Since Nov, Oct and Sep AORs are included one would expect a few long ones in the 180 to 200 day range. But there are none. So while the sample is small it does highlight a trend. The average comes out to 95.89 days. Increasing this average by 10% to account for sample size limitations gives 105 days. This would be a fair estimate I believe. There may be a slight slowing as noticed in the fall in June PPR numbers. So another 10% increase gives us 115 days. No other choice but to brace for it while hoping for the best (update in the 85 to 95 day range).