Usually 24-48 hours once your UCI changes from CANXXX to UCIXXX..
If you still can't, it is very likely you are entering one or more details wrong.
April 2024 AOR
- Thread starter theprettyreckless
- Start date
If you still can't, it is very likely you are entering one or more details wrong.
I can confirm I am entering the details 100% correctly, literally copy pasting from the IRCC website and/or BIL...
Immitracker has a very small sample of French category profiles. It is interesting to see that for the whole period of June 01 to June 24 only 1 PPR and 1 Decision-made has been issued. This contrasts with the period of May 01 to May 24 when 6 PPRs and 10 Decision-mades were given. Apr 01 to Apr 24 had 8 PPRs and 10 Decision-mades.
But Immitracker has only 109 profiles in the French category versus 19,000 ITAs issued. This is literally 0.5% of the total number. God only knows what has happened or what is happening with the remaining 99.5%.
Even with the tiny sample of profiles available to view in Immitracker one can see that the average number of days from AOR to PPR for the 39 people who received PPRs is around 95 days. This means FD may have an average of 90 days. There is a cohort of 16 or so people in 2023 that stands quite apart. If that cohort is excluded then the average becomes 87 days from AOR to PPR and 82 days for FD.
Since I’m at 84 days from AOR, what would my probabilities for an update be this week? My last update was medical passed on June 01 (June 02 on GCKey).
But Immitracker has only 109 profiles in the French category versus 19,000 ITAs issued. This is literally 0.5% of the total number. God only knows what has happened or what is happening with the remaining 99.5%.
Even with the tiny sample of profiles available to view in Immitracker one can see that the average number of days from AOR to PPR for the 39 people who received PPRs is around 95 days. This means FD may have an average of 90 days. There is a cohort of 16 or so people in 2023 that stands quite apart. If that cohort is excluded then the average becomes 87 days from AOR to PPR and 82 days for FD.
Since I’m at 84 days from AOR, what would my probabilities for an update be this week? My last update was medical passed on June 01 (June 02 on GCKey).
Last edited:
Probabilities are built on top of stat significant data, we don't have one as you yourself mentioned. I think you should brace for a longer processing time.
Yeah the sample size is too small. There are only 38 people with the following AOR to PPR timelines: 112, 82, 64, 94, 86, 78, 153, 74, 68, 90, 88, 106, 69, 105, 82, 55, 66, 98, 59, 118, 129, 48, 114, 84, 91, 156, 111, 111, 118, 130, 91, 101, 133, 119, 117, 91, 91, 62.
Since Nov, Oct and Sep AORs are included one would expect a few long ones in the 180 to 200 day range. But there are none. So while the sample is small it does highlight a trend. The average comes out to 95.89 days. Increasing this average by 10% to account for sample size limitations gives 105 days. This would be a fair estimate I believe. There may be a slight slowing as noticed in the fall in June PPR numbers. So another 10% increase gives us 115 days. No other choice but to brace for it while hoping for the best (update in the 85 to 95 day range).
Since Nov, Oct and Sep AORs are included one would expect a few long ones in the 180 to 200 day range. But there are none. So while the sample is small it does highlight a trend. The average comes out to 95.89 days. Increasing this average by 10% to account for sample size limitations gives 105 days. This would be a fair estimate I believe. There may be a slight slowing as noticed in the fall in June PPR numbers. So another 10% increase gives us 115 days. No other choice but to brace for it while hoping for the best (update in the 85 to 95 day range).
A lot of people receive their BIL (Biometrics Instruction Letter) in 60 to 70 days, although the norm for the quick crowd is more like 30 days. Your BIL may be just around the corner. I’d give it a week or two.Hi guys, anyone submitted on April 24th or after? I have no updates yetnothing, and I submitted on 24th.
Hi, No, it's actually all completed on the tracker (which I think might just be broken) The GC key says Background is still in progress and we'll contact you if we need additional info.
Biometrics linked since May 20th, medicals passed May 23rd as well.
My country gets processed very quickly, alot of people with AOR and medicals after my own date of submission have already received their Portal emails and FD. I called IRCC and the agent says everything looks good, I don't know if that's a generic answer they give everyone. They asked that SLA is 5 months and I can start calling by August if nothing moves.
It's quite a frustrating wait but I guess there's nothing can do at this point.
I received a request for additional information and i have time till 27th.. however when i login to my account there is no tab that has been activated to upload my reply (sometime yesterday it did show a tab where i had an option to upload, today it’s disappeared) therefore my agent has replied by raising a web form.. should that suffice? I am nervous as we don't receive any confirmation mail from IRCC for receipt of our reply
I don't think there's enough data to say a country gets processed faster. SLA is 6 months, average processing time listed on the site is 5 months. SLA is for 80% applications in a cohort to be processed within 6 months, 20% can(and will go longer).
Remember, it doesn't always happen (because GCKey doesn't really update for a lot of users), but here's the only verifiable info we've on these changes: https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/gcms-shows-security-screening-and-waiting-lets-gather-here.498854/page-162#post-10443831