My app arrived Jan7 PM, so not too much hope there at this moment. Especially when seeing all the posts so far are Jan2 down to the minutes. But still based on the information there, it is hard to believe more than 5000 apps arrived on Jan 2, and CIC chooses to shut the door on Jan 16. The only reasonable answer will be that CIC is trying to stock a few more apps just in case the 5000+ Jan2 batch have unqualified one to be returned during 2nd or 3rd scanning. So how many Jan2 will be returned in a later day, and how many "backup" apps after Jan 2 will be picked up is interesting.
If we use today's spreadsheet, and 1.75% sampling rate, we can safely guess the CIC might be doubling the in-take, so 10000 apps received but half of them will be returned in the coming months. Based on this model, we can imagine 5000 on Jan2, 2500 on Jan5, 1250 on Jan6, 625 on Jan7, 312 on Jan8, 156 on Jan9. The receiving rate goes down by half, but this can be adjusted. Still it is sad to see CIC does not close the door earlier than Jan16 to reduce the false hope it creates for later comer like me.
If the above estimation is totally off, then the scenario could be one person here said the CIC actually only accepted 5000 plus a little until Jan16. Then the sample rate in the spreadsheet could be adjusted to a big number, which means more people updated the spreadsheet than 1.75%. The higher rate the higher hope for later comers to get into this year's 5000 cap.
Based on 2014 spreadsheet, there are 50+ entries, so that is 1%. This year we have more than 150 entries. So the rate is 3%? Now there is hope for later comers. Then the picture looks quite different. It even changes the "backup" apps CIC is collecting this year. At 3%, CIC only stock 6000 apps in total, so only less than 1000 will be returned. this is more reasonable work amount. this means there 3000 apps on Jan2, 1500 on Jan5, 750 on Jan6, 375 on Jan7, 190 on Jan8, 100 on Jan9, 50 on Jan12, 25 on Jan13, 13 on Jan14, 7 on Jan15. then probably CIC sees no reason to wait further, and cut at Jan16 morning. I will speculate CIC decided to cut early Jan13, and announced 3 days later, when they slightly accepted a few hundred more apps as backups.
It is really amazing to see such a good spreadsheet there for two years. Really it tells a lot. CIC should adjust the policy to accept 5000 apps each year. It could be done in a more friendly way. This is just a mad house to see people use courier to beat the snail mail. If I know earlier, I will pay $150 to get into the Jan2 8:45AM batch. Sorry for the guys trusted Canada Post. What about the people from remote areas like no courier service. They might have to pay extra to mail the app to someone in Toronto, then use courier to send it in.
Good luck for everyone made it this year. For someone missed this year, we can be there earliest next year. Probably CIC can close the door Jan4 12PM, since 6000 apps can be reached within 3 hrs (9-12). It is amazing!