Ray of Hope - 95th Draw

[AlfredoInans]

I thought it was impossible too, until I carried out this analysis earlier today. What's your take on this:

Pool size on the 17/07/2018 (estimate)

600 - 1200: 219
451 - 600 : 314
441 - 450 : 866

Total: 1399

441 to 1200: Pool size entry (300/day) 17/07/2018 - 24/07/2018: 2400 - 2700

Draw size: 3750 (25/07/2018)

(2400+1399) Total: 3799...... 49 left on 441

(2700+1399) Total: 4099.....349 left on 441

Either way, cut off estimate (25/07/18): 441

Tie break with 49 left on 441: ??
Tie break with 349 left on 441:??

08/08/2018 next draw size: 4000


Please note: 300/day (441-1200) is a conservative estimate (this has been overestimated to accommodate IELTS result effect, if there is any). Typically, the 300/day entry should include profiles with/on 400 crs.

If this is the case, the 25/07/18 draw should clear all profiles on 441, and possibly include very few profiles on 440. In summary, tomorrow's draw could be 440 optimistically, or 441 conservatively.

Think 314 is too small for 451-600. Last time it was 1455 for that range, and the draw before it was 1057. 1000 should be a safer estimate.

 

[FairOntario]

Think 314 is too small for 451-600. Last time it was 1455 for that range, and the draw before it was 1057. 1000 should be a safer estimate.

This is true, but that figure was just 6 days after the 11th July, draw. From 17th July, a figure of 300/day was assumed to be entering the pool from 441 to 1200.

 

[AlfredoInans]

This is true, but that figure was just 6 days after the 11th July, draw. From 17th July, a figure of 300/day was assumed to be entering the pool from 441 to 1200.

Oh I see your point now. Very reasonable.

 

[hardikpatel123]

Friends, do they announce CRS cutoff on 12 am utc or 12 am PST /

 

[Mayur_M]

The draw strategy this year seems unfair in so many ways...However, you might be among the very few on 440 that'll receive ITA tomorrow (if the cut off is 440), since you entered the pool January. There are lots of people who also fell victim to the tie break rule on the 23rd May, unfortunately some of them are about to or have already lost points. Good luck to you tomorrow.

Also many would have retook IELTS and increased crs above 440.

 

[at4446]

I thought it was impossible too, until I carried out this analysis earlier today. What's your take on this:

Pool size on the 17/07/2018 (estimate)

600 - 1200: 219
451 - 600 : 314
441 - 450 : 866

Total: 1399

441 to 1200: Pool size entry (300/day) 17/07/2018 - 24/07/2018: 2400 - 2700

Draw size: 3750 (25/07/2018)

(2400+1399) Total: 3799...... 49 left on 441

(2700+1399) Total: 4099.....349 left on 441

Either way, cut off estimate (25/07/18): 441

Tie break with 49 left on 441: ??
Tie break with 349 left on 441:??

08/08/2018 next draw size: 4000


Please note: 300/day (441-1200) is a conservative estimate (this has been overestimated to accommodate IELTS result effect, if there is any). Typically, the 300/day entry should include profiles with/on 400 crs.

If this is the case, the 25/07/18 draw should clear all profiles on 441, and possibly include very few profiles on 440. In summary, tomorrow's draw could be 440 optimistically, or 441 conservatively.

I really hope so ..... only if less than 300 entered the pool everyday! hoping !

 

[farrukhahmed]

Argghhh! Will it ever come below 430?

 

[mayple]

I thought it was impossible too, until I carried out this analysis earlier today. What's your take on this:

Pool size on the 17/07/2018 (estimate)

600 - 1200: 219
451 - 600 : 314
441 - 450 : 866

Total: 1399

441 to 1200: Pool size entry (300/day) 17/07/2018 - 24/07/2018: 2400 - 2700

Draw size: 3750 (25/07/2018)

(2400+1399) Total: 3799...... 49 left on 441

(2700+1399) Total: 4099.....349 left on 441

Either way, cut off estimate (25/07/18): 441

Tie break with 49 left on 441: ??
Tie break with 349 left on 441:??

08/08/2018 next draw size: 4000


Please note: 300/day (441-1200) is a conservative estimate (this has been overestimated to accommodate IELTS result effect, if there is any). Typically, the 300/day entry should include profiles with/on 400 crs.

If this is the case, the 25/07/18 draw should clear all profiles on 441, and possibly include very few profiles on 440. In summary, tomorrow's draw could be 440 optimistically, or 441 conservatively.

Are you saying that should the minimum score cut-off be 441 in the next draw, all those above 441 irrespective of when they submitted their profiles (given the current pooling) will get an ITA ?

 

[FairOntario]

Are you saying that should the minimum score cut-off be 441 in the next draw, all those above 441 irrespective of when they submitted their profiles (given the current pooling) will get an ITA ?

Definitely, everyone with a score above 441 will get ITA (if the minimum score/cut off is 441), regardless of when they entered the pool. Tie break rule would only come into effect for those on 441, i.e. all profiles existing before/on the tie break date will get ITA/will be considered first.

 

[pizzacat]

Is NOC-0621 (Retail and wholesales manager) or NOC-6211 (Retail sales supervisor) under any PNP programme available?

6211 is in NBPNP list but you must also have TEF. Check their website. I just saw it earlier.

 

[indpnv]

Friends, do they announce CRS cutoff on 12 am utc or 12 am PST /

It's on a 24H clock, so 12PM UTC. You should see it around 6AM PDT.

 

[Avengers]

Anxiously waiting for draw...

 

[Avengers]

Advise for IRCC profile must be 2 months old for EE eligible...If we have cut off date rule then why won't this

 

[hellotipsy]

Goodluck to everyone! Congrats to people who will be getting their ITAs today! Hopefully 441 gets wiped out and some of the 440 to be finally invited.(If not this draw, then in the next few draws, that's for sure.)

 

[Daniellasim84]

1), 2) and 3)

Here is a guide to proving relation to sibling living in Canada:

https://www.immigration.ca/the-proof-of-relationship-to-a-relative-in-canada/

4) Yes, that's true.

Thanks!!!