My ambitious attempt at trying to predict the number of ITAs for Jan. draw!!!

[sdv]

I agree with you 100%. That's the only way to see it.

I don't believe there will be a NOC list for FSW. Not for the first few months at least.

If they plan to supply the gaps of certain professions, wouldn't make sense giving random NOCs ITAs based only on the CRS.

There is a risk of unbalanced distribution among NOCs on the top of the pool, so if there isn't any NOC list, at least a NOC cap would make sense.

 

[idefix]

If they plan to supply the gaps of certain professions, wouldn't make sense giving random NOCs ITAs based only on the CRS.

There is a risk of unbalanced distribution among NOCs on the top of the pool, so if there isn't any NOC list, at least a NOC cap would make sense.

We are talking about large numbers here. 25.000 applicants for FSW. On average, I don't think a few NOCs will get much more visas than other NOCs.

But I agree, maybe later on, if they see that a few NOCs are getting to many ITAs, they may change the rules and add a CAP. But that won't happen for the first few months.

 

[Granadoespada]

I don't agree with you at all. You are way too pessimistic because you are afraid of something that you (or anybody) don't understand yet.

1st: almost nobody has a valid LMIA right now. If on the first draw they only call for applicants with job offer, they will make a draw of 50 people? Why would they have spent millions of dollars on a new program to get.. 50 immigrants? Almost everybody that had a LMIA on 2014 already applied for FSW - no caps either.

2nd: there aren't many applicants yet on EE. 5.000? 10.000? 15.000? I'm sure it's not more than that. If they only call 1% ... the second draw will have up to 150 people. So, again: they spend several million dollars to call 50 immigrants on the first draw and 150 on the second? 200 immigrants? Way to expensive.

3rd: yes! they want immigrants that speak English very well. That's the lead cause of unemployment among immigrants. They only search for immigrants that can really get adapted to Canada.

4th: Canada doesn't get a dime if everybody on Earth takes IELTS. They are only interested on applicants that speak English well.

5th: Promo? Are you kidding? Should they do a Fidelity Card like American Airlines or Hilton Honors? Why on earth would they say it's easy to go to Canada? What they want is to attract the best immigrants, period. And that those that are truly qualified should able to get there very fast.

6th: They should call about 25.000 applicants for FSW this year. They will have to call a lot of people and the draws will be large enough to accommodate that.

Your analysis made me think...
So they want the best immigrants, period...OK. Just the best.
I reread the news release, and it said they want the highest ranking... Is second place the best, no, right?
So they might just choose the best, which is the top 1 percent... 2nd place is not the best.
(Of course, they can just say the top ten percent)

So now, I think they will just choose the top ten percent, not 1 percent, that's my guess.

As for the reason why they might imply that it's easy to go to Canada, like how entering now is express, it's to create buzz. Awareness will make a lot of people apply...

I think that a part of the pool of applicants will be from people who were part of the 200 thousand backlogged applications.
So that's a big pool. But to actually have the energy to apply again after having been let down before might impact EE application numbers. Because that's how I felt when I applied for FSW 2014, what a let-down. But I still applied, this time with less expectations.

 

[mf4361]

Your analysis made me think...
So they want the best immigrants, period...OK. Just the best.
I reread the news release, and it said they want the highest ranking... Is second place the best, no, right?
So they might just choose the best, which is the top 1 percent... 2nd place is not the best.
(Of course, they can just say the top ten percent)

So now, I think they will just choose the top ten percent, not 1 percent, that's my guess.

As for the reason why they might imply that it's easy to go to Canada, like how entering now is express, it's to create buzz. Awareness will make a lot of people apply...

I think that a part of the pool of applicants will be from people who were part of the 200 thousand backlogged applications.
So that's a big pool. But to actually have the energy to apply again after having been let down before might impact EE application numbers. Because that's how I felt when I applied for FSW 2014, what a let-down. But I still applied, this time with less expectations.

When you say best is top 1 percent, why? why not top 0.5%? why not top 0.1%?

"We will invite the best to immigrate to Canada" is just an publicity thing CIC say. Obviously this is not the perfect system and matrix to measure people. There is no perfect matrix.

There is a target number of immigrants CIC allows people in (60k+ FSW+FST, 20k CEC, etc), Then they select the "best" [insert number seats per draw] measured by their matrix (known as CRS) and let them in. Simple.

Number of seats for immigrant depends only on how much immigrants CIC wants them to come.

Whether "best 5%, best 10%" is not important to CIC. And it depends on demand too.

 

[idefix]

Your analysis made me think...
So they want the best immigrants, period...OK. Just the best.
I reread the news release, and it said they want the highest ranking... Is second place the best, no, right?
So they might just choose the best, which is the top 1 percent... 2nd place is not the best.
(Of course, they can just say the top ten percent)

So now, I think they will just choose the top ten percent, not 1 percent, that's my guess.

As for the reason why they might imply that it's easy to go to Canada, like how entering now is express, it's to create buzz. Awareness will make a lot of people apply...

I think that a part of the pool of applicants will be from people who were part of the 200 thousand backlogged applications.
So that's a big pool. But to actually have the energy to apply again after having been let down before might impact EE application numbers. Because that's how I felt when I applied for FSW 2014, what a let-down. But I still applied, this time with less expectations.

They will make draws every 15 days. They should draw about 2.000 applicants per draw to get to their target. The first draws will draw only high scores because there are several applicants that didn't make it into FSW / CEC / FST. But then the minimum score will lower a lot because they need a lot of people.

During the entire program of FSW, 8 months, about 30k people applied. Numbers of CEC and FST are lower. There is just no way that in one month of EE will get 200k applicants. It is a lot of work to apply: you need an ECA, a high IELTS.. They will release complete statistics about the pool on each draw. I would be really surprised if there are more than 15k applicants. My bet would be arround 8k applicants. The draw should be from 1k to 2k, so top 12% to top 25%.

In 2 weeks we'll be sure of things.

 

[idefix]

When you say best is top 1 percent, why? why not top 0.5%? why not top 0.1%?

"We will invite the best to immigrate to Canada" is just an publicity thing CIC say. Obviously this is not the perfect system and matrix to measure people. There is no perfect matrix.

There is a target number of immigrants CIC allows people in (60k+ FSW+FST, 20k CEC, etc), Then they select the "best" [insert number seats per draw] measured by their matrix (known as CRS) and let them in. Simple.

Number of seats for immigrant depends only on how much immigrants CIC wants them to come.

Whether "best 5%, best 10%" is not important to CIC. And it depends on demand too.

Couldn't agree more. +1

 

[mf4361]

If they plan to supply the gaps of certain professions, wouldn't make sense giving random NOCs ITAs based only on the CRS.

There is a risk of unbalanced distribution among NOCs on the top of the pool, so if there isn't any NOC list, at least a NOC cap would make sense.

The whole point CIC introducing EE is to fill job demand in Canada faster.

In the past, EDSC do job market research to create a list of occupations that Canada is in demand. Thus the list of eligible list of NOC in FSW/FST. This reacts to job market too slowly and not doing its function.

Now they want to pass this responsibility onto the free market of jobs itself. If an occupation is in huge demand, employers can't find a Canadian for it and will start to look for foreigners to fill up that job. Then the Job Bank comes in. If a foreigner lands a job in Canada, they will get highest priority to come. In the big picture, most future immigrants will fill jobs that aren't filled by Canadians.

That's CIC's plan. Whether that would work out? we will see

 

[doubleym]

The whole point CIC introducing EE is to fill job demand in Canada faster.

In the past, EDSC do job market research to create a list of occupations that Canada is in demand. Thus the list of eligible list of NOC in FSW/FST. This reacts to job market too slowly and not doing its function.

Now they want to pass this responsibility onto the free market of jobs itself. If an occupation is in huge demand, employers can't find a Canadian for it and will start to look for foreigners to fill up that job. Then the Job Bank comes in. If a foreigner lands a job in Canada, they will get highest priority to come. In the big picture, most future immigrants will fill jobs that aren't filled by Canadians.

That's CIC's plan. Whether that would work out? we will see

This is spot on.

Over time the system should govern itself, say a company needs a new skilled employee, they advertise for 4 weeks, carry out interviews, still can't find a suitable employee. Then they look to the Job Bank, they find a suitable foreigner and are then they can apply to ESDC for a free LMIA, 10 days later that comes back and the candidate is able to add that to their profile, gain an additional 600 points and are selected for an ITA at the next draw in say 2-3 weeks. ~6 months later the new immigrant lands and fills that skill deficit.

On the other hand if a particular skill is not in as high demand, the employer would start advertising, be able to find many potential Canadians/Permanent Residents and hire one of those, otherwise they would apply for an LMIA and be rejected.

 

[Granadoespada]

When you say best is top 1 percent, why? why not top 0.5%? why not top 0.1%?

"We will invite the best to immigrate to Canada" is just an publicity thing CIC say. Obviously this is not the perfect system and matrix to measure people. There is no perfect matrix.

There is a target number of immigrants CIC allows people in (60k+ FSW+FST, 20k CEC, etc), Then they select the "best" [insert number seats per draw] measured by their matrix (known as CRS) and let them in. Simple.

Number of seats for immigrant depends only on how much immigrants CIC wants them to come.

Whether "best 5%, best 10%" is not important to CIC. And it depends on demand too.

why not 0.5 or 0.1, because one is the lowest whole number...

Well yes after 2 weeks we'll know if any of our guesses are right.

After the first draw, then the second rank will rise
to first rank, then some applicants
will join and the pool will be replenished, so after the best are allowed in, then maybe eventually everyone except the lowest will get in?

 

[desertfox]

May be CIC wants to give us more time to speculate?

They haven't published ee draw instructions yet. Wonder what is going on.

 

[anishsm]

May be CIC wants to give us more time to speculate?

They haven't published ee draw instructions yet. Wonder what is going on.

Exactly.. It's becoming very mysterious and the suspense is killing. The press release said BEFORE the end of January and it's almost the end of January. They will have the draw on 31st January and declare it the day before...

 

[idefix]

Exactly.. It's becoming very mysterious and the suspense is killing. The press release said BEFORE the end of January and it's almost the end of January. They will have the draw on 31st January and declare it the day before...

Since we are speculating , I'd say they will publish instructions on the 27th or 28th and draw on the 29th. It's more fun that way!

 

[claudianrejaj]

guys this is a great work you've made!

Still if i may say...you might be close, but I don't believe it would works like this. it's just a matter of budget. They have a plan for collection. depends very much of this.

min 5000 ITA per months is my estimation

assuming 80% chances of success, they will take around 5M per months from this. ;D

 

[claudianrejaj]

The whole point CIC introducing EE is to fill job demand in Canada faster.

In the past, EDSC do job market research to create a list of occupations that Canada is in demand. Thus the list of eligible list of NOC in FSW/FST. This reacts to job market too slowly and not doing its function.

Now they want to pass this responsibility onto the free market of jobs itself. If an occupation is in huge demand, employers can't find a Canadian for it and will start to look for foreigners to fill up that job. Then the Job Bank comes in. If a foreigner lands a job in Canada, they will get highest priority to come. In the big picture, most future immigrants will fill jobs that aren't filled by Canadians.

That's CIC's plan. Whether that would work out? we will see


I don't think they care too much of immigrants demand other than as a 'selling product'. Took specialists just because they bring more money and taxes and they are good buyer too for the canadian market. Who else can buy the products here? Not much of exports. Look at Target withdraw.. Who comes and being able to stay, they don't care as well. There will be always others and others. That is why they reject so many and so easy and the new system is so simplified and not carried too much of really build a population of the country. It's just business. There is a huge demand, so plenty like us for them to take even the minimum. On the other hand, they just build this system to give them kind of an automatical statistic of demand as in the previous system they have worked just on paper and never being able to see how much money they can gain until final submissions.


Just my thoughts...

 

[GurmanS]

Interesting analysis. +1, very hopeful for everybody .

Just my 2 cents:
- They clearly favor now people with excellent English level, because they found out that were the main criteria for integration of new immigrants; so they are trying to filter that;
- The number of applicants per Draw will be determined in function of several factors, one of which is the quality of the pool; So they will invite UP TO 51.000; they may call less people;
- I believe they will call almost everybody that has a good level of English and fits the 67 points for FSW; I recommend everybody that doesn't have CLB 10+ for each skill to try to improve their results because you will get a chance;
- They probably will call everybody that qualifies for CEC, yes - because usually they are already integrated to the Canadian society;

I got 343 points in ee and profile got selected under cec. My english proficiency is really high ? how r my chances ?