My ambitious attempt at trying to predict the number of ITAs for Jan. draw!!!

[MedZed]

I think they will still go by NOC and skill set. We can not predict draw on the basis of high points only. what if only computer programmers are in majority of high score? will they call all computer guys. I dont think it is possible. They will balance the ratio on skill set. So in some NOCs there will be a fair chance for people who are less then 400 points. Even guys who score 320-350 can make it if there is not competition in there skill set. lets wait and see the trend of draws.

Agree,the aim is to keep balance between different NOC's, That's why there is no limited occupation list in EE program.
As you said the highest score applicants belong to just 3 or 4 NOCs and it doesn't sound logical to pick a large number of them in each draw.

 

[desertfox]

Agree,the aim is to keep balance between different NOC's, That's why there is no limited occupation list in EE program.
As you said the highest score applicants belong to just 3 or 4 NOCs and it doesn't sound logical to pick a large number of them in each draw.

I have different opinion.

With no NOC restrictions in place, people from all sectors will apply. I do not think only people from one particular noc will be high scorers.

And if CIC draws based on NOC, they will have violated the promise made in Express Entry. I don't think they will do that without changing policy. And policy change is subject to parliamentary approval.

 

[MedZed]

I have different opinion.

With no NOC restrictions in place, people from all sectors will apply. I do not think only people from one particular noc will be high scorers.

And if CIC draws based on NOC, they will have violated the promise made in Express Entry. I don't think they will do that without changing policy. And policy change is subject to parliamentary approval.

Not just one particular NOC but it would be very limited,I mean neither "just NOC-based" nor "just score-based" selection it would be.They will try to keep balance between both sides.

 

[Froze950]

Whole idea of Making the express entry was to let the job market control itself. I do not think they will be looking which NOC's are Hot or not. High points can be attained with " not so hot " NOC's as well.

Some one mentioned that individuals with 320-350 can also get ITA. As much as I would like to agree with you, it will not be the case ( I think ). So basically, higher the points higher the chances.

 

[mf4361]

Whole idea of Making the express entry was to let the job market control itself. I do not think they will be looking which NOC's are Hot or not. High points can be attained with " not so hot " NOC's as well.

Some one mentioned that individuals with 320-350 can also get ITA. As much as I would like to agree with you, it will not be the case ( I think ). So basically, higher the points higher the chances.

Agreed. This is the main reason CIC go for EE is to have the job market controls the demographics and skill sets of people immigrating to Canada. In the past, ESDC do their research and decides a list of NOC codes that are eligible (thus the FSWP NOC-list).

If Canada job market has a sudden increase in demand in a certain NOC code, those on such NOC are likely to get a job and thus gets priority to immigrate. At least that's the theory. Whether government theories merry with reality is another issue (landing a job overseas & hell in LMIA issues), but that's what CIC wants.

Of course, there is a chance that we have 60% of oil rig hand and 30% of store or restaurant managers immigrates in a year. But statistically, in a pool of large number of samples over all NOC codes, such extreme is so unlikely that it can be ignored. Most of the time we should see a wide spectrum of NOC getting ITA.

Correction:
Job market research is done by ESDC, not CIC.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/express-entry-could-sideswipe-high-skilled-foreign-workers-1.2870369

 

[idefix]

Agreed. This is the main reason CIC go for EE is to have the job market controls the demographics and skill sets of people immigrating to Canada. In the past, ESDC do their research and decides a list of NOC codes that are eligible (thus the FSWP NOC-list).

If Canada job market has a sudden increase in demand in a certain NOC code, those on such NOC are likely to get a job and thus gets priority to immigrate. At least that's the theory. Whether government theories merry with reality is another issue (landing a job overseas & hell in LMIA issues), but that's what CIC wants.

Of course, there is a chance that we have 60% of oil rig hand and 30% of store or restaurant managers immigrates in a year. But statistically, in a pool of large number of samples over all NOC codes, such extreme is so unlikely that it can be ignored. Most of the time we should see a wide spectrum of NOC getting ITA.

Correction:
Job market research is done by ESDC, not CIC.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/express-entry-could-sideswipe-high-skilled-foreign-workers-1.2870369

I agree with this scenario.

Specially because we are talking about big numbers - 200 NOCs? - eligible for EE. How would they set each draw? 10 for 0013, 12 for 0014... it's impossible to manage.

With large numbers - 50.000 FSW this year - things tend to even out, and even cold nocs may get high marks.

Also, their inspiration was Australia and New Zealand - and they don't pick NOCs. Anyway, we'll be sure in 15 days .

 

[m_dewan33]

I think we've all exhausted our forecasting capabilities at this stage!

Let's just wait till they announce the draw details. I'm guessing they will make an announcement sometime next week.

 

[dukhi]

keeping our fingers crossed

 

[Froze950]

Yea, enough speculation! Everything will clear up in 2 weeks time.

 

[dukhi]

Its getting nervous ...just draw the result

 

[desertfox]

Fully agree with Mr. Dewan that we've all exhausted our capacity to analyze. Now we can wait patiently or choose to do so impatiently to see how CIC makes the draws.

One thing I liked most about express entry is that consultants are now less capable of misguiding people. That's the advantage of digitizing systems. Let us at least applause CIC.

 

[m_dewan33]

Fully agree with Mr. Dewan that we've all exhausted our capacity to analyze. Now we can wait patiently or choose to do so impatiently to see how CIC makes the draws.

One thing I liked most about express entry is that consultants are now less capable of misguiding people. That's the advantage of digitizing systems. Let us at least applause CIC.

while digitizing the system is definitely praiseworthy the lack of clarification on several issues such as lmia and arranged employment are precisely the kind of things that is allowing the consultants to mislead people

 

[curious_123]

To be honest, people use consultant in a wrong way... While hiring a consultant you need to be sure you research as well...You can get rejected in CEC for several reasons... job description, NOC, salary mention in ur letter and T4 etc... A good consultant will ensure all these areas are taken care of...If you are bit knowledgeable, you can find out which consultant is bullshitting around...

 

[desertfox]

To be honest, people use consultant in a wrong way... While hiring a consultant you need to be sure you research as well...You can get rejected in CEC for several reasons... job description, NOC, salary mention in ur letter and T4 etc... A good consultant will ensure all these areas are taken care of...If you are bit knowledgeable, you can find out which consultant is bull*censored word*ting around...

Bro,
If I can research myself, I wouldn't be hiring consultants. People who cant do it themselves, or are afraid to do so go to consultants. And most consultants finely do the job of misguiding. But of course there are legit and qualified consultants.

 

[desertfox]

while digitizing the system is definitely praiseworthy the lack of clarification on several issues such as lmia and arranged employment are precisely the kind of things that is allowing the consultants to mislead people

Job match service will take some more time. But how to obtain LMIA for express entry is outlined at CIC website