My ambitious attempt at trying to predict the number of ITAs for Jan. draw!!!

[Broncos]

cic should hire you guys to do their math ;D ;D ;D ;D

 

[hedonist10]

Sure I am an statistician....would love that job offer

 

[idefix]

1. That number is for principal applicants only and there's no doubt about that

Thanks for clarifying. +1

 

[idefix]

Based on the spreadsheet if we take out people with Canadian experience the highest score is 482 (excluding job offer and pnp).

Is this true ?

That's me . I didn't know that!

 

[idefix]

OK. Everybody needs to understand this. This change has been made only because PNPs and LMIA Full time permanent workers were getting backlogged. Just think of it this way. If you could make that 67 score back when it was 67 score system. You will make the cut now.

The only thing that is a major factor is the number of applicants / the total quota. That is all. If the number of people applying is 75,000. Then everyone who qualifies for FSW / CEC will get in. There is no minimum score. If your score is 300 and you qualify for FSW or CEC you will get in if the number of applicants = total number of quota. Now we have 51000 FSW and 23000 CEC. Historically 12000-13000 people applied for CEC with the cap getting full in October/November. So this means they drastically increased the cap to take into account people from backlog and new applicants so almost everyone who applies in CEC will get through.

Interesting analysis. +1, very hopeful for everybody .

Just my 2 cents:
- They clearly favor now people with excellent English level, because they found out that were the main criteria for integration of new immigrants; so they are trying to filter that;
- The number of applicants per Draw will be determined in function of several factors, one of which is the quality of the pool; So they will invite UP TO 51.000; they may call less people;
- I believe they will call almost everybody that has a good level of English and fits the 67 points for FSW; I recommend everybody that doesn't have CLB 10+ for each skill to try to improve their results because you will get a chance;
- They probably will call everybody that qualifies for CEC, yes - because usually they are already integrated to the Canadian society;

 

[m_dewan33]

Thanks for clarifying. +1

I'm afraid I was wrong. According to the new source shared by hedonist10, it appears that the 50k numbers include the principal applicant along with the accompanying spouse and children.

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/department/media/notices/2014-11-06.asp

This means I definitely overstated the expected ITA for the first draw. Now I'm thinking that it will be around 1500

 

[m_dewan33]

cic should hire you guys to do their math ;D ;D ;D ;D

I know, right? 8) ;D

 

[idefix]

I know, right? 8) ;D

Better yet, they should hire you with LMIA 8)

 

[m_dewan33]

Better yet, they should hire you with LMIA 8)

LOL

 

[biz]

Great calculations

 

[desertfox]

My understanding is FSW and FSTP intake for 2015 will be around 30 thousand (principal applicant) .Now in the first few months, high scorers will be invited, but at later stages, people with average scores should get invitations.

Logic behind this assumption there cant be 30 thousand candidates in the pool with scores above 450.

Moreover, when job match starts, people who have skills will get job offers and thus get additional points. So let us stay positive.

 

[phsetaknev]

Going through all the calculations I have 3 statements:

1) If the number of ITAs issued also includes the dependents then the quota will reach soon enough.
2) (Not considering people with job offers) People with high points now are either highly qualified or their spouse has good stats (education and IELTS) or the ones with Canadian education and/or Work ex. So basically if there are more people in the above category then people who are single wish that they were married to a highly qualified woman
3) And 2 months from the first draw there maybe some candidates who will be falling back to the initial stage by being unable to submit the required docs within 60 days, which will be added back to the pool (i guess) and within this time frame the Job match service might be up and running pushing CIC to take people with highest points considering the Arranged employment/Canadian Job offer (with LMIA)/PNP nominations.

So i think in the first few(3) months if people who are SINGLE, without JOB OFFER or PNP dont get the ITA then there are really slim chances of getting it further in the year. So single guys start getting married and instead of going to honeymoon suite go to IELTS test center and start working

By the way I too have to do that, so :'(

 

[anishsm]

Going through all the calculations I have 3 statements:

1) If the number of ITAs issued also includes the dependents then the quota will reach soon enough.
2) (Not considering people with job offers) People with high points now are either highly qualified or their spouse has good stats (education and IELTS) or the ones with Canadian education and/or Work ex. So basically if there are more people in the above category then people who are single wish that they were married to a highly qualified woman
3) And 2 months from the first draw there maybe some candidates who will be falling back to the initial stage by being unable to submit the required docs within 60 days, which will be added back to the pool (i guess) and within this time frame the Job match service might be up and running pushing CIC to take people with highest points considering the Arranged employment/Canadian Job offer (with LMIA)/PNP nominations.

So i think in the first few(3) months if people who are SINGLE, without JOB OFFER or PNP dont get the ITA then there are really slim chances of getting it further in the year. So single guys start getting married and instead of going to honeymoon suite go to IELTS test center and start working

By the way I too have to do that, so :'(

Hahhahaha time to get married. By the way the old FSW system also preferred married

I guess the decision for the number of ITAs will also be made based on the number of applications that for in each category . There would also be total and NOC quota limitations on the FSW program. If we consider that he ITAs are drawn equally. People with CEC having more points due to jobs and integration into the society will always get more ITAs in each draw until CECIL cap fills . So I think they will decide Number of ITAs based on how many applicants there are in each category and not any arbitrary test number

 

[newGirl_sk]

Going through all the calculations I have 3 statements:

1) If the number of ITAs issued also includes the dependents then the quota will reach soon enough.
2) (Not considering people with job offers) People with high points now are either highly qualified or their spouse has good stats (education and IELTS) or the ones with Canadian education and/or Work ex. So basically if there are more people in the above category then people who are single wish that they were married to a highly qualified woman
3) And 2 months from the first draw there maybe some candidates who will be falling back to the initial stage by being unable to submit the required docs within 60 days, which will be added back to the pool (i guess) and within this time frame the Job match service might be up and running pushing CIC to take people with highest points considering the Arranged employment/Canadian Job offer (with LMIA)/PNP nominations.

So i think in the first few(3) months if people who are SINGLE, without JOB OFFER or PNP dont get the ITA then there are really slim chances of getting it further in the year. So single guys start getting married and instead of going to honeymoon suite go to IELTS test center and start working

By the way I too have to do that, so :'(

LOL!

That isn't true though. In fact the EE scores have been distributed such that even if you are a bachelor, you will be given a chance to have as many points as a married person with an educated wife.
If anything, those who are married are at a loss here because now, unless both of them are equally proficient in English and adequately educated, they could bring each others scores down.

 

[doubleym]

LOL!

That isn't true though. In fact the EE scores have been distributed such that even if you are a bachelor, you will be given a chance to have as many points as a married person with an educated wife.
If anything, those who are married are at a loss here because now, unless both of them are equally proficient in English and adequately educated, they could bring each others scores down.

Yup this is exactly the case. You only stand to lose points with a spouse, you cannot gain additional points.