With due apologize to all, who were unaware of this (Chris humor) we used to have in early days of the forum/till regular PER rains, here are the numbers on which i based my assumption.
Work load of NDVO
NDVO's 2014 target for FSW applications is 8,100
# of apps completed from previous year programs (FSW 13 and earlier): 4,000 (We all know NDVO was almost done with the backlog before start of FSW 14 apps and keeping in view size of FSW 13 (i.e. 5,000), it is a very optimistic number)
Remaining Target: 4,100
Transfer of file to NDVO started from June (as per SS only 4 PER for NDVO candidates in May 2 on 22nd May and another 2 on 27th May)
That leaves them with less than 140 working days to finalize 4,100 apps i.e. 29 apps per working day. This estimation is based on aggressive contribution from previous programs, which means that actual requirement from FSW 14 apps cud be even higher
Process of VO's application processing
TAT: in following description means time required for each file from start to end of that stage.
Stage 1: Further eligibility, Background, and Security checks are completed --> TAT cud be 1-3 weeks for each application with many apps running in parallel, it will be even higher for interview cases --> most of these processes also run in parallel and VO can manage the time taken by improving the efficiency of case officers.
Stage 2: MR, interview (in few cases), additional docs & PCC requests are sent --> TAT applicant dependent --> these are major bottle necks for NDVO as 45-90 days needs to be given based on docs/PCC required
Stage 3: Review of submitted docs and finalization --> TAT 1-2 days --> VO can manage the time taken by improving the efficiency of case officers
Stage 4: PPR request and visa stamping --> TAT Max 30 days as Passport needs to submitted within 30 days of PPR; less than 1 hr required by NDVO for final checking of passport and visa stamping.
Optimal Workflow to maximize decision finalization by 31st Dec 2014
1. Complete Stage 1 of maximum number of apps as early as possible, so that maximum number of applicants can complete required documentation by mid of November.
2. Complete stage 2 in last 2 weeks of Nov 2014 to ensure max number of PPR are sent before 30th Nov 2014
3. Issue visas to all the processed apps by 31st Dec 2014 (as applicant only have 30 days to submit passport, NOT EXTENDABLE as per VO letter. Although in special circumstances extension may be considered)
NOTE: Any time wasted in processing Stage 3 & 4, before mid of November means few less apps reach stage 2 to give adequate time for completion of documentation/required PCC. I won't be surprised to know that between Mid Nov to end of Dec, most of the MR requests are related to applicants who have already submitted all PCCs (most time consuming requirement of stage 2).
NOTE 2: These VO targets are taken very seriously by Canadian gov and my friend Chris (Immi Minister) has to explain the reasons to the Parliament.
NET NET: NDVO shud be showering PPR in next 2-3 weeks
P.S: Specially apology to the guy who got so frustrated by my previous admittance of the humor that he gave me -1, not that i care abt these damn numbers, but because it wud have really hurt his emotions.
P.S2: I wished to give this analyses with my yesterday's post, but my laptops battery didn't allow.
