Express Entry system #39/488 points/755 ITA

[karthik506]

The Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, pursuant to section 10.3 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, gives the annexed Ministerial Instructions Respecting Invitations to Apply for Permanent Residence under the Express Entry System (July 27, 2016).

Ottawa, July 27, 2016

JOHN MCCALLUM
Minister of Citizenship and Immigration

MINISTERIAL INSTRUCTIONS RESPECTING INVITATIONS TO APPLY FOR PERMANENT RESIDENCE UNDER THE EXPRESS ENTRY SYSTEM (JULY 27, 2016)

Determination — number of invitations

1. (1) For the purposes of paragraph 10.2(1)(b) of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, the number of invitations that may be issued during the period beginning on July 27, 2016 and ending on July 28, 2016 is 755.

Required rank

(2) Foreign nationals who, on July 27, 2016 at 12:40:23 UTC, have been assigned a total of 488 points or more under the Comprehensive Ranking System that is set out in the Ministerial Instructions Respecting the Express Entry System, as published in the Canada Gazette, Part I, on December 1, 2014 and as amended from time to time, occupy the rank required to be invited to make an application for permanent residence.

 

[binshuo20]

2016's quota for economic class is 160000, which is 20000 less compared with 2015 quota.

31000 ITA issued in 2015, so let's say an ITA corresponds to 6 new immigrants.

Per 39th draw, this year 16800 ITA have been issued, which means there are about 11000 ITA left. and there are 10 draws left if they keep the biweekly drawing, which means an average draw of 1100 people per round. So I don't even think the score will fall below 475 this year, not even mention international students are going to get more points from the system later this year, making it even harder for oversea applicants.

If I'm wrong, please point it out. I could really use some hope.

 

[Sluffy]

2016's quota for economic class is 160000, which is 20000 less compared with 2015 quota.

31000 ITA issued in 2015, so let's say an ITA corresponds to 6 new immigrants.

Per 39th draw, this year 16800 ITA have been issued, which means there are about 11000 ITA left. and there are 10 draws left if they keep the biweekly drawing, which means an average draw of 1100 people per round. So I don't even think the score will fall below 475 this year, not even mention international students are going to get more points from the system later this year, making it even harder for oversea applicants.

If I'm wrong, please point it out. I could really use some hope.

It might be something like that
http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/38th-draw-guess-t432261.0.html;msg5306885#msg5306885

 

[Alexios07]

It might be something like that
http://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/38th-draw-guess-t432261.0.html;msg5306885#msg5306885

The current backlog is huge, around 380k applications. Since ITA doesn't always mean PR so they might increase the ITAs pass the 1k/draw for this year if they WANT.

 

[mcrystald]

This doesnt sound hopeful at all

 

[DamhaSirah]

This doesnt sound hopeful at all

Agreed. This is so demotivating. I was so looking forward to this draw, all for nothing...

 

[deadbird]

Agreed. This is so demotivating. I was so looking forward to this draw, all for nothing...

Hang in there Ahmad. I'm sure the numbers will drop in September. The CIC officer said so in the talk in Edmonton.

 

[DamhaSirah]

Hang in there Ahmad. I'm sure the numbers will drop in September. The CIC officer said so in the talk in Edmonton.

How did you guess my name?

 

[siddharthbala]

How did you guess my name?

Because the first five letters are "ahmad" backwards?

 

[Sluffy]

The current backlog is huge, around 380k applications. Since ITA doesn't always mean PR so they might increase the ITAs pass the 1k/draw for this year if they WANT.

Thank you for the sharing the link.
But you seem to misinterpret the stats.

The stats of inventory of economic class for March, 2016 was around 153K people (not applications!) for both EE and non EE (sounds much better, than 380k applications, right? )
We are interested only in several streams - FSW, FST, PNP and CEC. Because others (like caregivers) have their own quotas and do not participate in EE.
So if you sum up the pre-EE inventory for these streams you will get smth like 92143 people (not applications!).
With the approval rate let's say 70% (based on last year stats) it will be around 64,5k people to admit.

The lowest admission target for 2016 is 100k people for both EE and pre-EE. So we have 35.5K people to be admitted via EE this year that means - visa issued.

Based on the Quarterly data release, there are in average as many dependents as principal applicants, I mean - 2 persons per applications.
Sounder EE they will admit (issue visa) to 35.5k people based on 17750 applications (and ITAs)- and they need to be processed till the end of the year.

We discussed many times that EE takes in average 6 months to proceed the application. This means that till the end of the year they will proceed applications submitted (and ITAs issued) no late from the July or August of 2015. But the intake doesn't stop, and people received ITAs and applied in September will be finalized in March 2017.

Goal number of admission for 2017 will be announced in November or December, till that time they will use numbers of 2016 - 100k a year, 25k for the first quarter of 2017. And we remember that inventory will be finalized, right? It means 12.5k ITAs to be issued for that fist quarter, which is 2000 per draw. And this corresponds to what CIC official guy said in the video.

So in my ideal world there's a chance