PMM said:
Hi
I would put my money on July 1st.
For betting in a pool, that is indeed probably the best bet in the pool.
But it is just a bet.
For tens of thousands of PRs, however, this is not merely about odds-making, not an academic exercise.
It may be worth reviewing some contextual background into what this means for tens of thousands of PRs.
For those on the cusp in 2015 there are real stakes, real consequences in play. I tend to swing with those who emphasize patience, and feel that there should be no rush to make the application for citizenship,
but the difference this coming year, for many thousands of PRs, could be a year or up to nearly two years. It is one thing to be patient and give it an extra month or two, but to have to wait an additional year plus, that is a lot. And the change-over will have that impact on thousands of PRs. No matter what date the section 5(1) amendments take effect, the change will suddenly extend the earliest eligibility date by a full year for thousands of PRs.
Thus, for those on the cusp in 2015, for those who could end up waiting, if they fail to get an application made prior to the amendments taking effect, an extra year or even two (the latter being those who could get credit for time in Canada prior to landing if they apply before the amended section 5(1) comes into force), it will be better to not make any bet now, but to watch the news closely. As the actual date approaches there should be some signs it is coming. Thus, for example, toward the middle of the month come May, and likewise in June (and so on), there will be many (in the hundreds if not thousands) who will want to be prepared to get the application sent off well in time to be actually received at CIC before the last day of the month. (Date application arrives and is received at CIC is the critical date, even though date application is signed is ultimately the date of application.)
This is a crazy transition. It is undoubtedly having an impact on intermediate travel plans -- recognizing, for example, for many a two week trip home for the end of the year holidays could mean the difference between getting an application submitted with at least a full week margin before June 30th, versus not being in a position to apply until it is too late to get the application in before July 1st, and that could mean not being eligible until some time in 2016 or even 2017.
If the Governor in Council has not ordered the amendments to come into force on July 1st, another batch of PRs, again probably in the hundreds if not thousands, will be on a similar cusp in July, approaching the August 1st date.
And so on.
I personally waited an extra year to apply for citizenship, and then procrastinated some, delaying applying by a few months more beyond that. But I had a visa-exempt passport, no plans to pursue career opportunities for which a Canadian passport would make a difference, and no travel plans which would be affected. Many, many others do not have the luxury of waiting a long time. For many, a long wait will entail significant inconvenience or even have a major impact on finances.
There is some irony, though, in that for some PRs the amendmended version of section 5(1) will accelerate the date they become eligible, and for some even make the difference in being eligible altogether. Long-haul truck operators with routes into the U.S. for example, some off-shore oil workers, some academics with temporary placements abroad, PRs whose actual presence in Canada was falling short of the 3/4 ratio imposed under the current version of section 5(1) but whose portion of time in Canada does meet a 2/3 ratio. These PRs (whose overall time residing in Canada is six years) will become eligible when the amendments take effect. While they are undoubtedly not few in number, the impact of the amendments will heavily weigh in the other direction, the number of PRs suddenly having to wait a lot, lot longer will vastly exceed the number who benefit from more liberal 2/3 ratio requirement.
In any event, the anxiety if not consternation felt by those on the cusp in 2015 is well-founded. For many, especially those who were living and working in Canada for years on temporary status, who finally were given PR status, and who will suddenly find themselves on the cutoff side of the change-over next year, and who will have to wait an extra year plus, I fully understand and sympathize with the sense that this just does not feel fair.