gregrdyer
Star Member
- Oct 1, 2015
- 8
- Category........
- NOC Code......
- 2174
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- 06-12-2016
Hi my fellow Express Entry Swimmers. I know elections are coming up and it could be a big game changer for the Express Entry Program 2016 onward. However regarding Express Entry Program 2015 and CIC's plans to have 260,000 - 285,000 new permanent residents it is reasonable to assume that CIC is well below their intake level.
BELOW ARE WHAT I BELIEVE TO BE SOME REASONABLE ASSUMPTIONS MADE.
This is because to date a total of 23,542 ITAs were issued. Lets multiply that figure by 4 (to cater for spouse and one dependent and possible ITA rejections) we get a figure of 94,168 possible permanent residents so far for 2015. That figure is still a very long way from 260,000 or 285,000. Lets add a hypothetical 100,000 to the 94,168 (to cater for any backlogs from the previous period). 194,168 is still a very long way from 260,000 or 285,000.
What can we gather from this? Well, CIC stated that they would have 15 to 25 Express Entry Draws in the year 2015. Based on the fact that they are way below their targets it is reasonable to assume that there would be 25 Express Entry Draws for this year. If not, then even if they take everyone in the pool with CRS 400+ they still would not meet their target.
So....this means that between now and December 31st, 2015 it is reasonable to expect 7 more Express Entry Draws. We have a little less than 3 months to go. Therefore it is also reasonable to expect more than 2 draws per month in the upcoming months (if not this month).
The more draws there are in a month, the shorter the wait between draws and the less time for more persons to join the pool. Based on the scores and ITAs in the past few months there seems to be a bit of a plateau (i.e. notice how the score didn't increase from 450 over a 2 week period, with the ITAs issued barely changing).
For CIC to meet their target it would not be prudent to reduce the amount of ITAs issued significantly. It would be in their best interest to increase it but to be devil's advocate lets work with an average of 1500 ITAs issued per draw with the possibility of 3 draws in either this month or upcoming months. This would therefore result in a drop in CRS points required to be issued an ITA.
My reasonable assumption is that if you have got CRS 440 and above...don't lose hope. It is likely you would receive an ITA before the end of the year.
So stay positive. I know I am keeping positive, because I am at CRS 440.
BELOW ARE WHAT I BELIEVE TO BE SOME REASONABLE ASSUMPTIONS MADE.
This is because to date a total of 23,542 ITAs were issued. Lets multiply that figure by 4 (to cater for spouse and one dependent and possible ITA rejections) we get a figure of 94,168 possible permanent residents so far for 2015. That figure is still a very long way from 260,000 or 285,000. Lets add a hypothetical 100,000 to the 94,168 (to cater for any backlogs from the previous period). 194,168 is still a very long way from 260,000 or 285,000.
What can we gather from this? Well, CIC stated that they would have 15 to 25 Express Entry Draws in the year 2015. Based on the fact that they are way below their targets it is reasonable to assume that there would be 25 Express Entry Draws for this year. If not, then even if they take everyone in the pool with CRS 400+ they still would not meet their target.
So....this means that between now and December 31st, 2015 it is reasonable to expect 7 more Express Entry Draws. We have a little less than 3 months to go. Therefore it is also reasonable to expect more than 2 draws per month in the upcoming months (if not this month).
The more draws there are in a month, the shorter the wait between draws and the less time for more persons to join the pool. Based on the scores and ITAs in the past few months there seems to be a bit of a plateau (i.e. notice how the score didn't increase from 450 over a 2 week period, with the ITAs issued barely changing).
For CIC to meet their target it would not be prudent to reduce the amount of ITAs issued significantly. It would be in their best interest to increase it but to be devil's advocate lets work with an average of 1500 ITAs issued per draw with the possibility of 3 draws in either this month or upcoming months. This would therefore result in a drop in CRS points required to be issued an ITA.
My reasonable assumption is that if you have got CRS 440 and above...don't lose hope. It is likely you would receive an ITA before the end of the year.
So stay positive. I know I am keeping positive, because I am at CRS 440.