19th draw - what could be the lowest score

[gregrdyer]

Hi my fellow Express Entry Swimmers. I know elections are coming up and it could be a big game changer for the Express Entry Program 2016 onward. However regarding Express Entry Program 2015 and CIC's plans to have 260,000 - 285,000 new permanent residents it is reasonable to assume that CIC is well below their intake level.

BELOW ARE WHAT I BELIEVE TO BE SOME REASONABLE ASSUMPTIONS MADE.

This is because to date a total of 23,542 ITAs were issued. Lets multiply that figure by 4 (to cater for spouse and one dependent and possible ITA rejections) we get a figure of 94,168 possible permanent residents so far for 2015. That figure is still a very long way from 260,000 or 285,000. Lets add a hypothetical 100,000 to the 94,168 (to cater for any backlogs from the previous period). 194,168 is still a very long way from 260,000 or 285,000.

What can we gather from this? Well, CIC stated that they would have 15 to 25 Express Entry Draws in the year 2015. Based on the fact that they are way below their targets it is reasonable to assume that there would be 25 Express Entry Draws for this year. If not, then even if they take everyone in the pool with CRS 400+ they still would not meet their target.

So....this means that between now and December 31st, 2015 it is reasonable to expect 7 more Express Entry Draws. We have a little less than 3 months to go. Therefore it is also reasonable to expect more than 2 draws per month in the upcoming months (if not this month).

The more draws there are in a month, the shorter the wait between draws and the less time for more persons to join the pool. Based on the scores and ITAs in the past few months there seems to be a bit of a plateau (i.e. notice how the score didn't increase from 450 over a 2 week period, with the ITAs issued barely changing).

For CIC to meet their target it would not be prudent to reduce the amount of ITAs issued significantly. It would be in their best interest to increase it but to be devil's advocate lets work with an average of 1500 ITAs issued per draw with the possibility of 3 draws in either this month or upcoming months. This would therefore result in a drop in CRS points required to be issued an ITA.

My reasonable assumption is that if you have got CRS 440 and above...don't lose hope. It is likely you would receive an ITA before the end of the year.

So stay positive. I know I am keeping positive, because I am at CRS 440.

 

[Lammawitch]

@Gregryder, you seem to be forgetting that the 2015 targets will mainly be filled by the pre-2015 backlog, as stated by CIC.

Also, the numbers you quote are for total immigrants from ALL streams, not just EE.

 

[gregrdyer]

@ Gregryder, you seem to be forgetting that the 2015 targets will mainly be filled by the pre-2015 backlog, as stated by CIC.

Also, the numbers you quote are for total immigrants from ALL streams, not just EE.

Hey Lammawitch, I get what you are saying, hence the reason I added the 100,000 to my already inflated figure of 94,168. If the backlog was greater than 100,000 it would be very difficult for CIC to clear up within the year 2015, which they said they would do. Hence the reason I am very optimistic we would see lower scores.

 

[georgekolath]

You have got a point. I am hoping and praying that the score goes down upto 350 . I am not sure how feasible it will be but fingers crossed.

 

[Lammawitch]

Hey Lammawitch, I get what you are saying, hence the reason I added the 100,000 to my already inflated figure of 94,168. If the backlog was greater than 100,000 it would be very difficult for CIC to clear up within the year 2015, which they said they would do. Hence the reason I am very optimistic we would see lower scores.

I see what you mean. But:

FSW/FSTW target for 2015 is 47k - 51k, *including* dependents (spouses and children). Don't forget this is number of PRs expected to *land*, not #of ITAs, or approved applications.

The rest of the 200k+ is from other streams. In January 2015, CIC backlog was over 400k for all immigration streams.

 

[syedahraza]

Hi,

My current CRS points are coming out to be 412. Is there any chance that the threshold comes below 450 in the coming months? I am a PhD student and married and have 4 years of foreign experience. My IELTS result is (L:8, R:9, W:7.5,S8).

 

[mf4361]

450.

Check me with that when it draws.

 

[Tuskers]

Hopefully 450.

 

[MASF]

I did some analysis of the data provided by CIC on express entry draw between 18th Sept till Oct 2nd. What I found is interesting.

In the draw of 18th Sep with cut-off of 450, all profiles with 450+ scores would have been cleared. In 2nd Oct draw of 450 cut-off, there were 1530 ITAs, which means all of these were created in the intervening 14 days, that gives a rate of 109 450+ profiles per day. If the same rate continues, then in the next draw on 16th Oct, there will be again 1530 profiles above 450+ points. And this can continue for ever.

The key question is - Is the addition of 109 450+ profiles per day a reasonable rate?

Let us try to look at a bigger sample size of 6 months from Jan till July 6, given by Reference 1.

By 6th July, there were 2,181 profiles with points greater than 450, and 12, 928 ITAs already issued with minimum cut-off of 453. So, we know that from Jan 1 till July 6, there are only 15,109 450+ profiles added into the system in these 187 days, so the rate is about 81 per day.

Hence, we can safely assume that the rate is about 80-85 and not 109 per day. If CIC wants to issue 1500 ITAs again, with a cut-off of 450, they can't have a draw on Oct 16th. Either they have to wait another week, in which case at 85 per day, the number of 450+ profiles will be 1785 and so the cut-off will be a bit higher than 450, say 463 or so. Or if they want to increase the rate of ITAs and have a draw on 16th, then at this rate they get only 1185 ITAs so either they issue this many or reduce by a few points and issue 1500 ITAs again.

In summary the lowest score depends on how many 450+ profiles get added in these days till the next draw (is it 80 per day or 100 per day).. and how many ITAs the CIC wants to give out.. and after how many days the next draw actually happens.

The best case scenario for us, is a draw happening on Oct 9th and 1500 ITAs issued again. This would mean the cut-off definitely falls to 440 or so.



Till Oct 2nd, CIC has given 23,548 ITAs in 9 months and 18 draws, that averages to about 2,616 per month and 1308 per draw.

References:
1. http COLON //www DOT cic DOT gc DOT ca/english/resources/reports/ee-midyear-2015 DOT asp
2. http COLON //www DOT cic DOT gc DOT ca/english/express-entry/rounds DOT asp

Hi I believe you scenarios need to take into account the persons who are rejected after ITA and reenter the pool. I believe this is also a reason the score has not dropped 450

 

[TECC_Seneca]

Hello All,

I just tried creating my profile and I got it as ineligible twice. I have no clue what is happening. Need Help!

I have a 1 year of work experience, no CEC and 5 years of work experience outside Canada. While creating my profile I didn't enter the preious work exp to check my score without that and only the Canada 1 year experience. Is this the reason I am getting ineligible?

 

[One_Topsy]

Hello All,

I just tried creating my profile and I got it as ineligible twice. I have no clue what is happening. Need Help!

I have a 1 year of work experience, no CEC and 5 years of work experience outside Canada. While creating my profile I didn't enter the preious work exp to check my score without that and only the Canada 1 year experience. Is this the reason I am getting ineligible?

I would advise that you recreate it slowly. There is obviously something you are selecting the makes it ineligible.

If you use the Come to Canada tool, it should work.

 

[Jad77]

I did some statistics and here is my assumption :
For the 19th draw the lowest possible score would be 443 points if it happens on the 16th of October. (As I said that's the lowest possible score).
But the high probability would somewhere between 446 and 449 points on the 16th of October (and 440 points or so if it happens on the 9th).
Of corse, It depends on the number of candidate entering the poor and the number of PNP issued.

Let's wait and see.

 

[Bablaa]

I am at 446 waiting for the draw and to get an ITA.... 17th and 18th draws were of 450 scores.... Hopefully 19th draw is sooner and lowest score also becomes lesser by 5 points or so....

446 and waiting ;D

 

[AgentC]

I sincerely wish that it comes down from 450 and wish all those 440+ good luck. But I have strong feeling that this time also the cut off will be 450 or more. I don't have any convincing logic/reasoning for this. But just a gut feeling based on observations so far.

 

[Bablaa]

446 I Guess

I hope your guess is right