19th draw - what could be the lowest score

[Jad77]

I hope as well your guess is right (I am at 446).
But I think it would be 448 or 449... (High probability is between 446 and 449).

 

[rrealansari]

430 when my number will come :'(
I say they should give priority to those who are waiting for long time rather than those you just created their profiles.

Any how I was not expecting that the score can go that low: I alomost lost the hope but I can a possibility.

Best Regards,

 

[number411]

I say they should give priority to those who are waiting for long time rather than those you just created their profiles.

How does it help the Canadian economy if they select low score profiles that are waiting for long time?

Selecting high score ones that were recently created helps them because they get better human capital, as per their belief that CRS points are proportional to human capital that is suited for Canada.

 

[bestofluck]

Well I am with 438 here

IF the draw takes place on 16th Oct It will surely reduce the score below 450. IF the Draw happens to be on 23rd Oct it might go up by few points.

We have to accept there are 1500 invites with every draw. Just forget the backlog or any other calculations. Just see the remaining 7 draws with 1500 invites means total invites remain are 10,500. With 1500 people joining the EE pool the people who will join are also 10,500, but there are only 10% above 450 which means total of 1500 will be with 450+

Now out of 10,500 remaining invites only 1500 will be with 450+ score. How many people with LMIA and PNP might join? There are all chances for the scores to go down below 450.

 

[dupsy21]

May I ask how you came about 7 remaining draws for this year? So far, it has been an average of 2 draws per month.

Well I am with 438 here

IF the draw takes place on 16th Oct It will surely reduce the score below 450. IF the Draw happens to be on 23rd Oct it might go up by few points.

We have to accept there are 1500 invites with every draw. Just forget the backlog or any other calculations. Just see the remaining 7 draws with 1500 invites means total invites remain are 10,500. With 1500 people joining the EE pool the people who will join are also 10,500, but there are only 10% above 450 which means total of 1500 will be with 450+

Now out of 10,500 remaining invites only 1500 will be with 450+ score. How many people with LMIA and PNP might join? There are all chances for the scores to go down below 450.

 

[Bablaa]

May I ask how you came about 7 remaining draws for this year? So far, it has been an average of 2 draws per month.

I guess its CIC's declaration at the start of the year that there will be 25 draws in 2015.

 

[Bablaa]

Well I am with 438 here

IF the draw takes place on 16th Oct It will surely reduce the score below 450. IF the Draw happens to be on 23rd Oct it might go up by few points.

We have to accept there are 1500 invites with every draw. Just forget the backlog or any other calculations. Just see the remaining 7 draws with 1500 invites means total invites remain are 10,500. With 1500 people joining the EE pool the people who will join are also 10,500, but there are only 10% above 450 which means total of 1500 will be with 450+

Now out of 10,500 remaining invites only 1500 will be with 450+ score. How many people with LMIA and PNP might join? There are all chances for the scores to go down below 450.

Ok, let me understand your prediction.
You are assuming that the new entries in the EE pool to be : 15000
You are also assuming that only 10% of these entries have 450+ scores i.e : 1500
CIC is approximately inviting 1500 applications per draw
So, if CIC is getting 1500 450+ scores every draw, how in the world can score drop southwards of 450?

My understanding might be incorrect. But this is what I could guage...

 

[bestofluck]

May I ask how you came about 7 remaining draws for this year? So far, it has been an average of 2 draws per month.

They have stated that there will be 15 to 25 Draws during 2015.

 

[bestofluck]

Ok, let me understand your prediction.
You are assuming that the new entries in the EE pool to be : 15000
You are also assuming that only 10% of these entries have 450+ scores i.e : 1500
CIC is approximately inviting 1500 applications per draw
So, if CIC is getting 1500 450+ scores every draw, how in the world can score drop southwards of 450?

My understanding might be incorrect. But this is what I could guage...

Understand simple way

7 draws remain...they will take 1500X7 = 10,500 total aaplicants

7 weeks new EE aplicants also 7x1500= 10,500 out of which only 1000 to 1500 are above 450 (10,500 - 1500= 9000)

So the remaining 9000 they cannot get from Ontario or other PNP or LMIA. (upto December)

This means the score has to drop IF all 7 draws take place. Now if they stop making draws saying 2105 quota is completed than its bad luck
(but that seems to be not happening because only 30,000+ ITA given in 9 months)

TO my logic the scores might drop to at least 15 points by December i.e 435. That's why I have not opted for any PNP and waiting the scores to drop

 

[tomneversfield]

I truly wish you all the best of luck, and I hope the score goes down to 430 by year-end.

However my gut tells me that they'll engineer the remaining draws such in to maintain 450 a floor score for 2015... In 2016 they will let up a little bit, but they will likely re-introduce NOC caps... I hope I'm wrong.. i really do.. but it's a gut feeling I have!

 

[KetkiN]

Any idea if there will be another draw in OCT, given the approaching elections? If draw #19 is delayed now, I have absolutely no hopes of getting through in 2015 with a CRS of 436.

 

[scylla]

I guess its CIC's declaration at the start of the year that there will be 25 draws in 2015.

They didn't say that. They said there would be up to 25 draws and a minimum of 15 draws.

 

[nonnemacher]

I truly wish you all the best of luck, and I hope the score goes down to 430 by year-end.

However my gut tells me that they'll engineer the remaining draws such in to maintain 450 a floor score for 2015... In 2016 they will let up a little bit, but they will likely re-introduce NOC caps... I hope I'm wrong.. i really do.. but it's a gut feeling I have!

I also have a strong feeling that immigration will introduce NOC caps soon! Some PNP are already focusing on some specific NOC`s, maybe the Express Entry will do the same, who knows..

I hope that I`m wrong though ??? ??? ???

 

[sivas1981]

Friday Mania....

Any hopes or guesses or ideas for a draw on coming Friday ?

Let's "assume" just "assume" there is a draw on friday, then, I would "assume" CIC would lower the lowest CRS Score to atleast 444 points to get 1500 to 1600 applicants.....

 

[Jad77]

435 By the end of the year is a good bet

Understand simple way

7 draws remain...they will take 1500X7 = 10,500 total aaplicants

7 weeks new EE aplicants also 7x1500= 10,500 out of which only 1000 to 1500 are above 450 (10,500 - 1500= 9000)

So the remaining 9000 they cannot get from Ontario or other PNP or LMIA. (upto December)

This means the score has to drop IF all 7 draws take place. Now if they stop making draws saying 2105 quota is completed than its bad luck
(but that seems to be not happening because only 30,000+ ITA given in 9 months)

TO my logic the scores might drop to at least 15 points by December i.e 435. That's why I have not opted for any PNP and waiting the scores to drop