Ray of Hope - 96th Draw

[Mayur_M]

I listed down all the original dates (not counting the three-week break), it was an interesting find.
1. IRCC is on sched. They adjust their sched when they can (the 3 week break on March and the back-to-back draw last May) but they will always employ a bi-monthly draw
2. May and October has 3 draws ea. It'll be interesting to see what October has in store for us.
3. August and September is quite flexible. They can adjust the schedule here and insert a 3week break here
4. Also every after 3 week break, they increase the cut-off score. We could be encountering another 3-week break BUT also an increase in cut-off score

I MIGHT be wrong but someone needs to list down all the original dates (minus the three-week break) and then observe why they put the 3 week break in March and June. There should be a pattern there somewhere.,,

or no lol

Good observation, but that 3 weeks gap negates the effect of increase in draw size and takes us back to square one.

 

[bimale4bipeople]

In two weeks, number of people in the pool went down from 87,478 to 87,350

So from the table and if the draw happens (without any FSTP, PNP draws in between) in 2 weeks time, the CRS will come down below 440 mark

 

[hellotipsy]

Good observation, but that 3 weeks gap negates the effect of increase in draw size and takes us back to square one.

That's their prerogative already although it wouldn't matter as long as they keep up with bi-weekly draws. Might be that they want to keep the numbers up before they increase the cut-off score who knows. This part, I agree, is unfair for us in the sub440s.

Anyway, from my observation, they only have 1 last 3-week break to insert for the year. They can't afford to do another one if they want to meet quota.

 

[hskris]

Experts in the group, do u think of any possibility of another draw by 31st? Or ONIP PNP possibility?

 

[AlfredoInans]

@at4446 It's through analysis we an unravel the weaknesses in IRCC's draw strategy, which unfortunately has been abysmal this year. The problems have been the tie break rule, the loss of points due to age factor, and the completely irrational 3 week draw, that could occur before the 8th August. Once again reversing the sub 440 trend we're beginning to see with yesterday's draw...Unfortunately, some people would have lost 5/6 points by then, and that's if the draw does happen.

Yes, we should do another analysis soon. For now I suspect the draw will be 441 again, except we have a back to back draw to correct the damage done by the cumulative effect of the tie break rule/3 week draw since the beginning of this year.

I wonder what people will choose, to conduct a back to back draw or effect delays through 3 week draws, for the baseless and cosmetic goal of maintaining bi weekly draw cycles... We all know what IRCC chose: 3 week draws, which has ruined/still ruining people's lives this year. RECKLESS!

Really? From past trends it seem there aren't that many people at 441 who entered the pool this year. Draw 88 was 441 with December 7 tie break. 89 was 441 with December 12 tie break. Next draw came down to 440 with December 30 tie break, meaning there weren't many people at 441 who joined from January 2018 to April end (draw 88).

Now we have 441 with December 30 tie break meaning all who were in pool from last year and improved their score to 441+ would have been cleared in yesterday's draw. So the only people left at 441 would be the ones who joined after May 23 (and as a result were not cleared when the score was 440) and the ones who joined this year but only improved their score after May 23.

I'm thinking score should hit 440 if draw size remains the same. Maybe even drop to 439 with tie break last year if the draw size increases to 4000.
I haven't tried to analyse numbers seriously though. So can't really say.

 

[peacefulwarrior]

Really? From past trends it seem there aren't that many people at 441 who entered the pool this year. Draw 88 was 441 with December 7 tie break. 89 was 441 with December 12 tie break. Next draw came down to 440 with December 30 tie break, meaning there weren't many people at 441 who joined from January 2018 to April end (draw 88).

Now we have 441 with December 30 tie break meaning all who were in pool from last year and improved their score to 441+ would have been cleared in yesterday's draw. So the only people left at 441 would be the ones who joined after May 23 (and as a result were not cleared when the score was 440) and the ones who joined this year but only improved their score after May 23.

I'm thinking score should hit 440 if draw size remains the same. Maybe even drop to 439 with tie break last year if the draw size increases to 4000.
I haven't tried to analyse numbers seriously though. So can't really say.

I also think it would be either 440 or 439. (they shouldn't skip the draw :|)

 

[Mayur_M]

I also think it would be either 440 or 439. (they shouldn't skip the draw :|)

Draw skip is scary

 

[FairOntario]

Really? From past trends it seem there aren't that many people at 441 who entered the pool this year. Draw 88 was 441 with December 7 tie break. 89 was 441 with December 12 tie break. Next draw came down to 440 with December 30 tie break, meaning there weren't many people at 441 who joined from January 2018 to April end (draw 88).

Now we have 441 with December 30 tie break meaning all who were in pool from last year and improved their score to 441+ would have been cleared in yesterday's draw. So the only people left at 441 would be the ones who joined after May 23 (and as a result were not cleared when the score was 440) and the ones who joined this year but only improved their score after May 23.

I'm thinking score should hit 440 if draw size remains the same. Maybe even drop to 439 with tie break last year if the draw size increases to 4000.
I haven't tried to analyse numbers seriously though. So can't really say.

True, following the quad draw cycle, the draw size will likely increase to 4000 on the 8th August. By monitoring the trend till next week we should be able to accurately predict the cut off.

For now let's hope the draw happens bi- weekly consistently, and no more 3 week delays till the year ends. To this end, even 336 to 338 is possible this year for those who have not lost points by then.

We should all thank you for unraveling the Dec 2017 tie break puzzle for yesterday's draw. All things being equal and with no surprises/tinkering, I believe you're on point.

 

[gauravmlal]

I also think it would be either 440 or 439. (they shouldn't skip the draw :|)

I know it is too early for a prediction of any sort but based on established norms of a non-IELTS fortnight, if we take number of 441+ entries per day to be 230 , we can project a rough cutoff.
Total Entries 230*14 = 3220.
If we assume number of people on 441 to be 150 till august 8 then total above 440 = 3220+150 = 3370.
Now we are uncertain on draw size. Statistics point to the same or larger draw size but IRCC needs to decide that.

So if pool strength above 440 is estimated to be 3370 on 8th August then cutoff scores could be estimated as
Draw Balance Cutoff
2750 620 446-445
3000 370 443
3250 120 441 (cutoff around May last week or June 1st week)
3500 -130 440 (cutoff Dec '17 - 1st week Jan'18)
3750 -390 440 (cutoff 2nd week Mar'18)
4000 -630 440 (cutoff June end or July 1st Week)
4250 -880 439 (Cutoff Sept-Oct'17) But 4250 is unlikely given the steady increments.

These numbers are vulnerable to draw skip and PNP nomination surge :| and are based on past Pool traffic in a non IELTS draw.
Lets pray all factors remain constant and draw size increases to 4000.

 

[FairOntario]

I know it is too early for a prediction of any sort but based on established norms of a non-IELTS fortnight, if we take number of 441+ entries per day to be 230 , we can project a rough cutoff.
Total Entries 230*14 = 3220.
If we assume number of people on 441 to be 150 till august 8 then total above 440 = 3220+150 = 3370.
Now we are uncertain on draw size. Statistics point to the same or larger draw size but IRCC needs to decide that.

So if pool strength above 440 is estimated to be 3370 on 8th August then cutoff scores could be estimated as
Draw Balance Cutoff
2750 620 446-445
3000 370 443
3250 120 441 (cutoff around May last week or June 1st week)
3500 -130 440 (cutoff Dec '17 - Jan'18)
3750 -390 440 (cutoff Mar'18)
4000 -630 440 (cutoff June end or July 1st Week)
4250 -880 439 (Cutoff Sept-Oct'17) But 4250 is unlikely given the steady increments.

These numbers are vulnerable to draw skip and PNP nomination surge :| and are based on past Pool traffic in a non IELTS draw.
Lets pray all factors remain constant and draw size increases to 4000.

This is great. @AlfredoInans, please see this. Hope no draw skip etc....

 

[javeds]

IELTS results are just overrated. The time there was no IELTS result, and the cut off was on a sub 440 trend, they still managed to coordinate with some provinces to issue nominations en masse, or worse still delay the draw. I hope everyone can now see the downsides of the ridiculous tie break rule and 3 week draws, without a counterbalance (a subsequent back to back draw and freezing profile age till expiry).

Think about people on 442 who missed ITA due to the tie break rule, and subsequently lost 6 points (birthday) before the 11th July draw, and can no longer improve scores. Their dream is over, killed only because of a reckless strategy imposed on such a beautiful/thoughtful immigration program. Are we going to say a 442 profile with CLB9/10 IELTS is not good enough.....

This year's strategy is lazy, not smart, one-sided, lacks both versatility and nuance! I just wonder who the 'devil' is in.... with an overinflated ego that thought this was a good idea! The algorithm is unintelligent, if there is any, It's in fact turned out to be a dream killer, at least for some unfortunate ones! Birthdays - a day of celebration - have become our worst nightmares. NOT FAIR!

I dont think there is anything sinister in what IRCC is doing. EE is a merit based process and age is a part of the equation. Even if IRCC intentionally moved things around to closely guard the 440 territory, I would see people losing ITAs in a 3 week draw due to age as a collateral damage rather than intentional. They have enough fish in the sea.

 

[AlfredoInans]

I know it is too early for a prediction of any sort but based on established norms of a non-IELTS fortnight, if we take number of 441+ entries per day to be 230 , we can project a rough cutoff.
Total Entries 230*14 = 3220.
If we assume number of people on 441 to be 150 till august 8 then total above 440 = 3220+150 = 3370.
Now we are uncertain on draw size. Statistics point to the same or larger draw size but IRCC needs to decide that.

So if pool strength above 440 is estimated to be 3370 on 8th August then cutoff scores could be estimated as
Draw Balance Cutoff
2750 620 446-445
3000 370 443
3250 120 441 (cutoff around May last week or June 1st week)
3500 -130 440 (cutoff Dec '17 - 1st week Jan'18)
3750 -390 440 (cutoff 2nd week Mar'18)
4000 -630 440 (cutoff June end or July 1st Week)
4250 -880 439 (Cutoff Sept-Oct'17) But 4250 is unlikely given the steady increments.

These numbers are vulnerable to draw skip and PNP nomination surge :| and are based on past Pool traffic in a non IELTS draw.
Lets pray all factors remain constant and draw size increases to 4000.

Yes this looks very reasonable @FairOntario. Fingers crossed for an increase in draw size. Last year draw size went as high as 3923 so 4000 in 2 weeks is very possible. Also the overall target has increased for this year and the only way to reach that is by increasing draw size (or increasing frequency of draws). Hoping for 4000!

 

[Gtman]

If PNP Ontario opens up, it will help a lot of people. They have huge quite quotas to fill and it will a very positive impact if they start issuing NOIs. Not sure why so delayed this year. A lot of people in the 420 to 440 would have gladly accepted the invite from Ontario PNP

I dont think there is anything sinister in what IRCC is doing. EE is a merit based process and age is a part of the equation. Even if IRCC intentionally moved things around to closely guard the 440 territory, I would see people losing ITAs in a 3 week draw due to age as a collateral damage rather than intentional. They have enough fish in the sea.

 

[sunboy129]

Call me pessimistic, but I do believe that CIC will use every trick in its sleeve to not let cutoff go below 440. Not even 439. Hoping for Ontario Pnp, but seems like even they do not want my noc.

 

[Tech_girl123]

If you are able to get the ECA of your PGEM as at least 1-year diploma, then it will add 25 points on skill transferability (assuming you have CLB9 in IELTS) and another 7 points in Education. With 470 points, should be a sureshot ITA
Do research though if WES will recognize your distant diploma, else you'll have to get it done by IQAS

Omg ! Thanks for letting me know .. I’ll get my degree only by December .. but atleast I have chance next year which is also a great news . Thanks