Ray of Hope - 96th Draw

[RPS92]

Pooling Date 19-Apr 4-May 16-May 8-Jun 20-Jun 5-Jul 19-Jul
601-1200 136 205 185 317 209 268 244
451-600 935 1116 871 2596 1057 1455 1101
441-450 1450 992 909 1092 1731 979 822
2521 2313 1965 4005 2997 2702 2167

Cut off 441 441 440 451 442 442 441

ITA 3500 3500 3500 3750 3750 3750 3750
Date 25-Apr 9-May 23-May 13-Jun 25-Jun 11-Jul 25-Jul

Date to reach ITA 6 5 7 5 5 6 6
People added in Pool 979 1187 1535 -255 753 1048 1583

People added per day after pooling 163 237.4 219 -51 151 175 264
People added per day before pooling 257 281 250 428 270 271


IELTS result did have an effect but not too much, the general trend of applicants entering the pool itself has increased.

 

[gauravmlal]

So glad "that the whole score will be 450+ given the release of 2 IELTs results" has been disproved, its not right to assume that all those receiving their IELTs are maxing out or scoring CLB9.

If you want to ponder on something , do it on next probable draw size , because that is the way forward. IELTS do play a role , you might have seen many success stories on previous threads of people shooting there CRS with many retakes of IELTS and at the same time many new aspirants entering the pool after their IELTS results, because anyhow you need it to enter the pool other than the ECA results. IELTS affect was very much restricted by relatively large draw size.
IRCC has completed four sets each of 3000,3500 and 3750 . Draw size is most likely going to be different , which side is the question ? Analytic energy should be concentrated on that aspect , because IELTS affect is proven.

 

[ersandee]

If you won't to ponder on something , do it on next probable draw size , because that is the way forward. IELTS do play a role , you might have seen many success stories on previous threads of people shooting there CRS with many retakes of IELTS and at the same time many new aspirants entering the pool after their IELTS results, because anyhow you need it to enter the pool other than the ECA results. IELTS affect was very much restricted by relatively large draw size.
IRCC has completed four sets each of 3000,3500 and 3750 . Draw size is most likely going to be different , which side is the question ? Analytic energy should be concentrated on that aspect , because IELTS affect is proven.

Truly quoted, IRCC is done with 3750 series and now its time to change. Which way is the question ?

 

[hellotipsy]

So glad "that the whole score will be 450+ given the release of 2 IELTs results" has been disproved, its not right to assume that all those receiving their IELTs are maxing out or scoring CLB9.

I have to agree. IELTS might have an effect on the number of people entering the pool BUT it does not single-handedly shoot up the CRS score cut-off to unlawful proportions

 

[Sree1982]

congrats to all who got an ITA..I think afer a long time most of us predicted the crs correctly as far as 95th draw is concerned..
Now i think this draw ie most likely to happen on 8th is definitely going to reveal the intention of IRCC..Personally i think and i wish it to go below 440..

 

[FairOntario]

IELTS results are just overrated. The time there was no IELTS result, and the cut off was on a sub 440 trend, they still managed to coordinate with some provinces to issue nominations en masse, or worse still delay the draw. I hope everyone can now see the downsides of the ridiculous tie break rule and 3 week draws, without a counterbalance (a subsequent back to back draw and freezing profile age till expiry).

Think about people on 442 who missed ITA due to the tie break rule, and subsequently lost 6 points (birthday) before the 11th July draw, and can no longer improve scores. Their dream is over, killed only because of a reckless strategy imposed on such a beautiful/thoughtful immigration program. Are we going to say a 442 profile with CLB9/10 IELTS is not good enough.....

This year's strategy is lazy, not smart, one-sided, lacks both versatility and nuance! I just wonder who the 'devil' is in.... with an overinflated ego that thought this was a good idea! The algorithm is unintelligent, if there is any, It's in fact turned out to be a dream killer, at least for some unfortunate ones! Birthdays - a day of celebration - have become our worst nightmares. NOT FAIR!

 

[hellotipsy]

I think they employed a three-week break to keep up with the bi-weekly draws as evident from the previous occurrences. (maybe? I am DEFINITELY grasping at straws here but there should be a logical explanation for the 3-week gaps)

So as long as we keep up with bi-weekly draws (and hopefully increased cut-off to 4000 or 4250) we will eventually get to the sub440s but indeed it is unfair for those who have waited for so long

 

[FairOntario]

Shameful that people with 440, who have been in the pool since January are yet to get ITAs, and already lost/are loosing points soon. The tie break for even those on 441 for the 25th July draw is December, 2017, despite a 440 cut off on the 23rd May (shows the strategy failed).

Some people with 441 (victims of the tie break rule) that have been in the pool, are also loosing points before the next draw on the 8/8/2018 - which might not even happen, no thanks to the clumsy 3 week draw that could rear it's ugly head anytime from now, with no rational counterbalance/correction.

So, where is the hope for those of us at sub 440, who can no longer improve scores? When people with good scores are loosing points even at 440/441/442, can't these people see these huge weaknesses.

At the end of the day, IRCC can't care less, their strategy is too lazy to discern these inconsistencies. Since they can always wait, delay, manipulate to cream only the top of the pool, and hopefully meet their end of year target clumsily, regardless how many people with equally good scores have wasted their hard earned money, life and time, because of some tie break rule or 3 week draw. CRUEL!

Now PNPs are now on a discrimination binge, with strange/unclear criteria not in line with the express entry pool, such as french speakers only, only people with relatives in Canada, only people with IT occupation, Job offers, study in Canada and sub sections of the general express entry NOCs etc....OINP might go this route soon too. Perhaps, this is what they meant by digging deep into the pool for talents! Again, NOT FAIR!

 

[navinball]

The simple fix is to freeze the age when the profile is created till it expires 1 yr later, with birthdays not decreasing the crs score. It's fair for all.

 

[ashokacca]

We at 430 to 440 have to worry about only one thing now... Draw skip... if there is a 3 week draw, it is back to squire one...

 

[Chris Puth]

Hi guys,

I've a couple of doubts. Will there be any difference in CRS points if Candidate's work experience increased from 3 years to 4 years?

Another doubt is, let's say there's someone in Canada who's ready to sponsor us. Will it be possible to do? And how much will it cost approximately? (I've heard it'll be ridiculously expensive, not sure about the source though)

I hope one of you guys would help me out since I'm sitting at 435 from last December.

Thanking you!

 

[gauravmlal]

We at 430 to 440 have to worry about only one thing now... Draw skip... if there is a 3 week draw, it is back to squire one...

First half of 2018 had been rather slow when it comes to number of ITAs issued as compared to first half of 2017. Last year a total of 86000+ ITA's were issued. Most issued in second half must be contributing to the total count of 2018 as the PR process takes almost 6 months. ITA's as well as immigration targets for both 2018 and 19 are higher than last year. If 86000+ were issued last year we could expect more or less the same number this year , which again would add up to the total count of 2019. Now going by statistics ,47200 had been issued so far and 86000-47200 roughly gives 39000 more invites. Now if they want to achieve this number then a draw skip is unlikely to happen due to any alleged 440 conspiracy. It may happen to keep a biweekly balance but then we should see a couple of 4000 and 4250 as well.
A higher ranking official in IRCC has already stated that they are aware of the potential below the cutoff in the pool. So even the analysts are hoping a busy second half. We could trust them with their belief that they have a realization that they are also missing out on talent because of high cutoffs and hence expect some consistency with the draws.
Lets hope it works this way. After all we could simply wish and pray.

 

[FairOntario]

amazing analysis you did!!! please do another one with current data!!!! it is been a while since a prediction has been right

@at4446 It's through analysis we an unravel the weaknesses in IRCC's draw strategy, which unfortunately has been abysmal this year. The problems have been the tie break rule, the loss of points due to age factor, and the completely irrational 3 week draw, that could occur before the 8th August. Once again reversing the sub 440 trend we're beginning to see with yesterday's draw...Unfortunately, some people would have lost 5/6 points by then, and that's if the draw does happen.

Yes, we should do another analysis soon. For now I suspect the draw will be 441 again, except we have a back to back draw to correct the damage done by the cumulative effect of the tie break rule/3 week draw since the beginning of this year.

I wonder what people will choose, to conduct a back to back draw or effect delays through 3 week draws, for the baseless and cosmetic goal of maintaining bi weekly draw cycles... We all know what IRCC chose: 3 week draws, which has ruined/still ruining people's lives this year. RECKLESS!

 

[hellotipsy]

I listed down all the original draw dates (if three week breaks had not happened), it was an interesting find.
1. IRCC is on sched. They adjust their sched when they can (the 3 week break on March and the back-to-back draw last May) but they will always employ a bi-monthly draw (exception May and October, see below)
2. May and October has 3 draws ea. It'll be interesting to see what October has in store for us.
3. August and September is quite flexible. They can adjust the schedule here and insert a 3week break here without affecting their bi-monthly (bi-weekly?) draw rule
4. Also every after 3 week break, they increase the cut-off score. We could be encountering another 3-week break ( I postulate this to be in Aug or September) BUT also an increase in cut-off score

I MIGHT be wrong but someone needs to list down all the original dates (minus the three-week break) and then observe why they put the 3 week break in March and June. There should be a pattern there somewhere.,,

or no lol

 

[ersandee]

Why everyone is taking about 3 weeks draw now ? Is there a pattern ?

I don't see a reason, if 440 thing is the reason , last draw was on 441 with dec 2017 cutoff.

May be next draw come to 440.