That’s true .. the amount of ppl below 440 is just too much... seems very unlikely that the score will touch 430’s soon.
Ray of Hope - 96th Draw
- Thread starter wolfman2017
- Start date
That’s true .. the amount of ppl below 440 is just too much... seems very unlikely that the score will touch 430’s soon.
Guys,
I have 437 points.I really think is very dificult to win with these express entry draw scores.I am really keeping my hopes on ontario pnp.Do you think there will be more draws from Ontario?Last draw was on march 2018.My noc is 1112 and my husband is NOC 2282.Do you think I stand a chance?
thank you
I have 437 points.I really think is very dificult to win with these express entry draw scores.I am really keeping my hopes on ontario pnp.Do you think there will be more draws from Ontario?Last draw was on march 2018.My noc is 1112 and my husband is NOC 2282.Do you think I stand a chance?
thank you
Yes , that is indeed pessimistic
. IRCC allegedly has only three strategies up its sleeves. One , skip a draw ,second, reduce draw size and third,any province issues 500+ nominations in a week to align with draw week. But barring the third , first two strategies would lead IRCC to fall short of annual targets, if they still want to induct the same number of people as quoted by their Immigration department. If they could send 86000+ ITA's for an annual target of 71400 in 2017 , just guess how many they should send for 74900 for 2018 and 81000+ for 2019. Logic say not less than the number they sent in 2017. All these calculations give a ray of hope for bigger or similar draws in coming weeks.Also they know, sub 440 folks are not losers
and have the same potential and spirit to contribute to Canada's success as 441+ league. So sit tight and pray for a 3750+ draw.We all in this group are aspirants connected by a thin ray of hope, draw over draw. There could be many conspiracy theories around the draw system this year. But here we all still want to focus on bright side. By keeping my head straight , I have made it to the 5th ray of hope thread and soon this hope will pay for me and many others. I know God has plans for me and all of us here. So cheers! and see the bright side of things
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I also think so..Atleast for 1 year they should not reduce scores...
what if people start creating new profiles a day before Birthday to secure 5 points ? I think there are reasons to keep things so.
After 1 year from creating only the points should go down..i under stand ur question that what if they recreate it before 1 year...still it can reduce as we are looking into total time in pool...other wise it is really heart breaking atleast for guys in 440 to loose points now...
n if they are creating one day before...now what if they are getting ITA 1 day before their birthday..
Everybody is supposed to get 1 year right??so for 1 year they should keep the score..
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very true ... but I really do not think back to back would happen. it is very clear that IRCC does not wanna drop the point!but what if the 3 weeks gap does not happen? if we can workout the numbers like last time (the fact that you considered 300 people to enter the pool every day was awesome because you took the worst case scenario) we might have a better idea what would happen specially that we have the updated info on the current pool
Well , number you are quoting gives a scare and crush the ray of hope , but if we prepare for the worst case and assume 280 per day then let me modify my estimate.
Total Entries 280*14 = 3920.
If we assume number of people on 441 to be 150 till august 8 then total above 440 = 3920+150 = 4070.
Now we are uncertain on draw size. Statistics point to the same or larger draw size but IRCC needs to decide that.
So if pool strength above 440 is estimated to be 4070 on 8th August then cutoff scores could be estimated as
Draw Balance Cutoff
2750 1320 453
3000 1070 451
3250 820 448
3500 570 445
3750 320 443
4000 70 441 (cutoff June third week)
4250 -180 440 (Cutoff jan first week) But 4250 is unlikely given the steady increments.
It seems 280 per day would change the dynamics way too much and lets hope we never reach that number . So lets pray for even less than 230 and stick to 230 theory
as the worst case scenario.
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Did ontario start issuing NOIs from today? One guy in the following forum mentioned that he received one an hour ago!
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/oinp-ee-human-capital-priorities-stream-comprehensive-guide.396543/page-709#post-7113567
https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/oinp-ee-human-capital-priorities-stream-comprehensive-guide.396543/page-709#post-7113567
I don't want to be mean, but let's get it straight now than later.
If you put yourself into CIC shoes,The entire purpose of Immigration is to find people who "most likely" fit into Canadian economy and contribute to the system for many years to come. It will defeat the purpose if the person is too old to be able to work for 40 years or so, right? Hence, they introduced the "points reduction per year" to be fair for everybody instead of the one time cut-off of XX points when you pass a certain age. Your age already stays for that one year. And you want your age to be the same for two consecutive years now?
Now let's analyze further if you got the chance to freeze your age points just right before your birthday where there is a guy who face a strategic event and unable to do so at that right moment, you are going to have a lead compare to him. Is that fair for him?
I know your are frustrated because your are losing points. I'm really sorry for your lost.
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