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Ray of Hope - 95th Draw

FairOntario

Star Member
Jul 12, 2018
73
37
Pool size on the 17/07/2018 (estimate)

600 - 1200: 219
451 - 600 : 314
441 - 450 : 866

Total: 1399

441 to 1200: Pool size entry (300/day) 17/07/2018 - 24/07/2018: 2400 - 2700

Draw size: 3750 (25/07/2018)

(2400+1399) Total: 3799...... 49 left on 441

(2700+1399) Total: 4099.....349 left on 441

Either way, cut off estimate (25/07/18): 441

Tie break with 49 left on 441: ??
Tie break with 349 left on 441:??

08/08/2018 next draw size: 4000


Please note: 300/day (441-1200) is a conservative estimate (this has been overestimated to accommodate IELTS result effect, if there is any). Typically, the 300/day entry should include profiles with/on 400 crs.

If this is the case, the 25/07/18 draw should clear all profiles on 441, and possibly include very few profiles on 440. In summary, tomorrow's draw could be 440 optimistically, or 441 conservatively.

Experts, please weigh in on this analysis.
Guys/experts, based on these two scenarios, what would be the tie break dates for the draw tomorrow?

1. Tie break with 49 left on 441: ??
2. Tie break with 349 left on 441:??

With a follow up draw size of 4000 on the 8th of August, we might finally break the 440 barrier 1st week of September. Unfortunately, some of us would have lost points by then.
 

Reddiered07

Hero Member
May 3, 2018
613
499
Guys/experts, based on these two scenarios, what would be the tie break dates for the draw tomorrow?

1. Tie break with 49 left on 441: ??
2. Tie break with 349 left on 441:??

With a follow up draw size of 4000 on the 8th of August, we might finally break the 440 barrier 1st week of September. Unfortunately, some of us would have lost points by then.
439 for sure in the first week of Aug draw! Unfortunately im late by 1 draw :(
 
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samikdg

Hero Member
Apr 27, 2018
550
397
Samik..have any idea when they gonna issue HCP NOIs? It's almost Aug and they have only 5 months left given that they process in 2-4 months !
Rational thinking says that they should definitely start issuing NOIs in July/August as the nomination may take up to 4 months as you've mentioned. But then when were IRCC and OINP bound by rational thinking? :/
Election of Doug Ford as Ontario premier has definitely complicated the matter!
 
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uthejsree

Star Member
Feb 1, 2018
75
28
Does Ontario provide a notice in advance that they will start issuing NOIs under the HCP stream? I don't really know how OINP works.
 

FairOntario

Star Member
Jul 12, 2018
73
37
439 for sure in the first week of Aug draw! Unfortunately im late by 1 draw :(
Profiles on 440 where cleared significantly 23rd May. If the 'optimistic scenario' in my analysis turns out accurate, then IRCC might surprise us tomorrow with a 440 cut off (which is not impossible). Therefore, very few profiles on 440 will get ITA, and I hope you'll be one of them.
 
Sep 5, 2017
5
2
I called on the given helpline number for the OiNP on the official website, they say that they are still issuing the NOIs, just their website is not updated. Sounds a bit strange to me.
 
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peacefulwarrior

Hero Member
Jun 4, 2018
229
131
I called on the given helpline number for the OiNP on the official website, they say that they are still issuing the NOIs, just their website is not updated. Sounds a bit strange to me.
Did you ask them about NOIs under HCP stream? They are issuing it under other streams, which is there in public domain.

They haven't issued NOI under HCP from last 4 months
 
Sep 5, 2017
5
2
Did you ask them about NOIs under HCP stream? They are issuing it under other streams, which is there in public domain.

They haven't issued NOI under HCP from last 4 months
Yes, I explicitly asked about the HCP stream, all they have to say is they are still issuing NOIs but the website is not updated.
 

viki1805

Hero Member
Jun 13, 2018
472
209
Category........
FSW
NOC Code......
2132
App. Filed.......
12-06-2018
What are the chances of getting an invite with a score of 440? Any help/suggestion is much appreciated.
hard to say. you might or might not. but you know what ? reading a few posts in the previous pages would definitely have answered your question.
 

ashokacca

Hero Member
Jun 21, 2018
325
163
What are the chances of getting an invite with a score of 440? Any help/suggestion is much appreciated.
I am at 440.. profile created on june 24... unlikely to get this week... may in the next couple of draws, we might get... when did you create your profile?