Guys/experts, based on these two scenarios, what would be the tie break dates for the draw tomorrow?Pool size on the 17/07/2018 (estimate)
600 - 1200: 219
451 - 600 : 314
441 - 450 : 866
Total: 1399
441 to 1200: Pool size entry (300/day) 17/07/2018 - 24/07/2018: 2400 - 2700
Draw size: 3750 (25/07/2018)
(2400+1399) Total: 3799...... 49 left on 441
(2700+1399) Total: 4099.....349 left on 441
Either way, cut off estimate (25/07/18): 441
Tie break with 49 left on 441: ??
Tie break with 349 left on 441:??
08/08/2018 next draw size: 4000
Please note: 300/day (441-1200) is a conservative estimate (this has been overestimated to accommodate IELTS result effect, if there is any). Typically, the 300/day entry should include profiles with/on 400 crs.
If this is the case, the 25/07/18 draw should clear all profiles on 441, and possibly include very few profiles on 440. In summary, tomorrow's draw could be 440 optimistically, or 441 conservatively.
Experts, please weigh in on this analysis.
1. Tie break with 49 left on 441: ??
2. Tie break with 349 left on 441:??
With a follow up draw size of 4000 on the 8th of August, we might finally break the 440 barrier 1st week of September. Unfortunately, some of us would have lost points by then.