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Ray of Hope - 95th Draw

FairOntario said:
Pool size on the 17/07/2018 (estimate)

600 - 1200: 219
451 - 600 : 314
441 - 450 : 866

Total: 1399

441 to 1200: Pool size entry (300/day) 17/07/2018 - 24/07/2018: 2400 - 2700

Draw size: 3750 (25/07/2018)

(2400+1399) Total: 3799...... 49 left on 441

(2700+1399) Total: 4099.....349 left on 441

Either way, cut off estimate (25/07/18): 441

Tie break with 49 left on 441: ??
Tie break with 349 left on 441:??

08/08/2018 next draw size: 4000


Please note: 300/day (441-1200) is a conservative estimate (this has been overestimated to accommodate IELTS result effect, if there is any). Typically, the 300/day entry should include profiles with/on 400 crs.

If this is the case, the 25/07/18 draw should clear all profiles on 441, and possibly include very few profiles on 440. In summary, tomorrow's draw could be 440 optimistically, or 441 conservatively.

Experts, please weigh in on this analysis.
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Guys/experts, based on these two scenarios, what would be the tie break dates for the draw tomorrow?

1. Tie break with 49 left on 441: ??
2. Tie break with 349 left on 441:??

With a follow up draw size of 4000 on the 8th of August, we might finally break the 440 barrier 1st week of September. Unfortunately, some of us would have lost points by then.
 
FairOntario said:
Guys/experts, based on these two scenarios, what would be the tie break dates for the draw tomorrow?

1. Tie break with 49 left on 441: ??
2. Tie break with 349 left on 441:??

With a follow up draw size of 4000 on the 8th of August, we might finally break the 440 barrier 1st week of September. Unfortunately, some of us would have lost points by then.
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439 for sure in the first week of Aug draw! Unfortunately im late by 1 draw :(
 
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Reddiered07 said:
Samik..have any idea when they gonna issue HCP NOIs? It's almost Aug and they have only 5 months left given that they process in 2-4 months !
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Rational thinking says that they should definitely start issuing NOIs in July/August as the nomination may take up to 4 months as you've mentioned. But then when were IRCC and OINP bound by rational thinking? :/
Election of Doug Ford as Ontario premier has definitely complicated the matter!
 
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Does Ontario provide a notice in advance that they will start issuing NOIs under the HCP stream? I don't really know how OINP works.
 
Reddiered07 said:
439 for sure in the first week of Aug draw! Unfortunately im late by 1 draw :(
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Profiles on 440 where cleared significantly 23rd May. If the 'optimistic scenario' in my analysis turns out accurate, then IRCC might surprise us tomorrow with a 440 cut off (which is not impossible). Therefore, very few profiles on 440 will get ITA, and I hope you'll be one of them.
 
I called on the given helpline number for the OiNP on the official website, they say that they are still issuing the NOIs, just their website is not updated. Sounds a bit strange to me.
 
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ankit.vijaywargiya said:
I called on the given helpline number for the OiNP on the official website, they say that they are still issuing the NOIs, just their website is not updated. Sounds a bit strange to me.
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Did you ask them about NOIs under HCP stream? They are issuing it under other streams, which is there in public domain.

They haven't issued NOI under HCP from last 4 months
 
peacefulwarrior said:
Did you ask them about NOIs under HCP stream? They are issuing it under other streams, which is there in public domain.

They haven't issued NOI under HCP from last 4 months
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Yes, I explicitly asked about the HCP stream, all they have to say is they are still issuing NOIs but the website is not updated.
 
What are the chances of getting an invite with a score of 440? Any help/suggestion is much appreciated.
 
go4sacchi said:
What are the chances of getting an invite with a score of 440? Any help/suggestion is much appreciated.
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hard to say. you might or might not. but you know what ? reading a few posts in the previous pages would definitely have answered your question.
 
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go4sacchi said:
What are the chances of getting an invite with a score of 440? Any help/suggestion is much appreciated.
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I am at 440.. profile created on june 24... unlikely to get this week... may in the next couple of draws, we might get... when did you create your profile?
 
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