Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[axmac]

Here, we don't tolerate pessimism without facts. If you want to make ludicrous posts like this, you add facts.

Thanks, Emman. Your posts are always reassuring. These self proclaimed soothsayers aren't doing us any good. People don't realize how positive a score 478 is. All the long term French language folks have been picked up at just 478. Given how hard it is to get French CLB7 without months of education, things should normalize, more so with a b2b. And let's all be confident there will be.

 

[iam_ij]

Thanks for the advice dude.
I had the impression you had to decline the PNP invitation in order to retain your eligibility for the federal draw but you're saying you can hold a PNP invite plus a federal invite at the same time?
It's all hypothetical now in any case since the Francophone OINP draw came through at 453-470 pts so I have too many points! More I learn about how the IRCC works, less I understand...

Guess you got your ITA

 

[Carmen01]

The wait continues for me ....counting down to 18 November .

 

[ZAtoCD]

Some nice graphs for everyone. https://www.cicnews.com/2020/11/express-entry-4500-itas-issued-in-new-draw-1116152.html#gs.k55tgf

 

[jrossi]

Here, we don't tolerate pessimism without facts. If you want to make ludicrous posts like this, you add facts.

I'm sorry, but his prediction is totally within reasonable expectations. Just look at the influx numbers, it continues to be near 300 candidates/day in the 471-600 range. There's just a *very* small gap for pool size reductions in each draw. If this influx persists, I hardly believe we'll see another 471-472 draw this year.
Honestly, it's not about being pessimist, it's about accepting the numbers and building a strategy to overcome them.

 

[jrossi]

Thanks, Emman. Your posts are always reassuring. These self proclaimed soothsayers aren't doing us any good. People don't realize how positive a score 478 is. All the long term French language folks have been picked up at just 478. Given how hard it is to get French CLB7 without months of education, things should normalize, more so with a b2b. And let's all be confident there will be.

I honestly believe there were near zero influence of the french boost in that cutoff. The cutoff went higher because the influx in the pool continue trending up, the 3 week gap, and also because there were near 1000 PNPs, while the average for previous draws was always around 300-500.
Again: these people already had +30 points before. It's very likely that the vast majority of candidates with bilinguism were already above 480. I've never heard of anyone with the bilinguism bonus sitting at 450, 460 (which means they would be actually sitting at 408-418 without french).

 

[Sweetyblaise]

I'm sorry, but his prediction is totally within reasonable expectations. Just look at the influx numbers, it continues to be near 300 candidates/day in the 471-600 range. There's just a *very* small gap for pool size reductions in each draw. If this influx persists, I hardly believe we'll see another 471-472 draw this year.
Honestly, it's not about being pessimist, it's about accepting the numbers and building a strategy to overcome them.

Eeya

 

[priya yadav]

Waiting for ITA and spending a lot of time and money is completely leading to lot of stress.....people are losing points by age...mainly FSW......candidates....
For a long time they have not done draws for FSW...atleast they have to compensate that by doing back to back draws......but nothing is happening...instead scores gone up...letting us to lose hope in canada......should see what happens in near future

 

[Emman O.]

You mean it won't still come down with a b2b in November or December?

I'm sorry, but his prediction is totally within reasonable expectations. Just look at the influx numbers, it continues to be near 300 candidates/day in the 471-600 range. There's just a *very* small gap for pool size reductions in each draw. If this influx persists, I hardly believe we'll see another 471-472 draw this year.
Honestly, it's not about being pessimist, it's about accepting the numbers and building a strategy to overcome them.

 

[Pyruvate1]

Draw projection: 472-473 for 11/11 and 475 for 11/18.

Also on an average, around 100-120 new people are added every day with score 470+

The spike was due to the french update. Sincerely, I am not trying to be too optimistics but from trend, scores will still go below 470

 

[Pyruvate1]

I'm sorry, but his prediction is totally within reasonable expectations. Just look at the influx numbers, it continues to be near 300 candidates/day in the 471-600 range. There's just a *very* small gap for pool size reductions in each draw. If this influx persists, I hardly believe we'll see another 471-472 draw this year.
Honestly, it's not about being pessimist, it's about accepting the numbers and building a strategy to overcome them.

The truth is that the increased biweekly ITA will make up for the increased influx. It would have been worse if ITA was still in 3500 to 3900. We are in the state of 4200 to 4500 and I do not think having 4500 above 471 biweekly is sustainable. The influx will definitely fall short of 4200 to 4500 biweekly

 

[Igethope]

I actually believe it will still hit early 470s, but these guys have been highly unpredictable. If your birthday is close like mine, try and max out ielts if u still can. I am still hopeful a back to back can set things straight. 471 hang in there; anything can happen. Things will get clearer with next draw.

 

[jrossi]

You mean it won't still come down with a b2b in November or December?

There’s not reason to believe there will be a B2B in November. For December, I’m not quite sure if we’ll see a B2B. For a simple reason: the next draws will be November 18th, December 2nd and December 16th. So, we already have 2 draws in December. In 2018 and 2019 we had B2B draws in December because otherwise the month would hold only 1 draw (considering IRCC ceases its activities during the weeks of Xmas and New Years holidays).
This time around, we’ll have 2 draws in December, without the need of one of them being after the week of December 21th. So, I firmly believe we’ll not see another b2b this year.
Yet, I hope I’m wrong. But again, here is not a place for optimism, but for us to share data that could lead us to an informed decision. Being optimistic will not lead us anywhere, but pursuing extra points, will.

 

[nikhilkbhat]

There’s not reason to believe there will be a B2B in November. For December, I’m not quite sure if we’ll see a B2B. For a simple reason: the next draws will be November 18th, December 2nd and December 16th. So, we already have 2 draws in December. In 2018 and 2019 we had B2B draws in December because otherwise the month would hold only 1 draw (considering IRCC ceases its activities during the weeks of Xmas and New Years holidays).
This time around, we’ll have 2 draws in December, without the need of one of them being after the week of December 21th. So, I firmly believe we’ll not see another b2b this year.
Yet, I hope I’m wrong. But again, here is not a place for optimism, but for us to share data that could lead us to an informed decision. Being optimistic will not lead us anywhere, but pursuing extra points, will.

There may be draws on November 11th and 25th.. if that happens, there'll be a b2b draw in December..

 

[jrossi]

There may be draws on November 11th and 25th.. if that happens, there'll be a b2b draw in December..

Why would IRCC be willing to make 2 back to backs in a matter of 3 weeks between them? Doesn’t make any sense to me.