Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[Himanshu6444]

478 damn you should start partying, next draw 100% you will get.

 

[Scalphunter]

The new draw brings the total number of ITAs issued in 2020 to 87,350, i wonder if they can still do 3/4 more draws with 4500 ITA this year again ? Can they really exceed 100k ITA ?

Weren't they saying that they have a mandate of 4.4% bilingual candidates? I guess it depends on how close this latest draw got them to it.

But ITAs don’t equate PPRs and they don’t have that.

Good point. If they're strictly counting PPRs, then the number of actual immigrants is lower than the invites and the chart on the draw shows invites.

 

[Himanshu6444]

Weren't they saying that they have a mandate of 4.4% bilingual candidates? I guess it depends on how close this latest draw got them to it.

Was that a mandate? It was just a 2019 stat I guess.

 

[Scalphunter]

Was that a mandate? It was just a 2019 stat I guess.

I remember reading it as a mandate. If it wasn't required I don't think they would've bothered adding the French score boost.

Also, the last time the score was at 478, the progression was as follows:
Jul 8 - 476
Aug 5 - 476
Sep 2 - 475
Sep 16 - 472
Sep 30 - 471
Oct 14 - 471

So consistent FSW draws from Sep 2nd to Oct 14th brought the score down quite a bit. This would've been lower but in July and August, they were alternating between FSW and CEC. If they do 5 or 6 FSW draws, the score should come down to 470 or below.

 

[Himanshu6444]

478 damn you should start partying, next draw 100% you will get.

Might be, what is your CRS?

 

[Himanshu6444]

I remember reading it as a mandate. If it wasn't required I don't think they would've bothered adding the French score boost.

Also, the last time the score was at 478, the progression was as follows:
Jul 8 - 476
Aug 5 - 476
Sep 2 - 475
Sep 16 - 472
Sep 30 - 471
Oct 14 - 471

So consistent FSW draws from Sep 2nd to Oct 14th brought the score down quite a bit. This would've been lower but in July and August, they were alternating between FSW and CEC. If they do 5 or 6 FSW draws, the score should come down to 470 or below.

Can't really rely on this past trend as dynamics have changed now. Added French scores, people competing at a high level to improve scores, more people joining in on average.
One thing everyone is neglecting is that scores will go higher because of International studetns in Canada.

 

[Scalphunter]

Can't really rely on this past trend as dynamics have changed now. Added French scores, people competing at a high level to improve scores, more people joining in on average.
One thing everyone is neglecting is that scores will go higher because of International studetns in Canada.

Sure, but Canada is also aiming to get 1.2 million immigrants over the next 3 years, which is around 400,000 a year. That's around 15,000 invites each draw if they want to hit that target.

 

[Himanshu6444]

Sure, but Canada is also aiming to get 1.2 million immigrants over the next 3 years, which is around 400,000 a year. That's around 15,000 invites each draw if they want to hit that target.

but they didn't say they will target this immigration target through just express entry only.

 

[Igethope]

Sure, but Canada is also aiming to get 1.2 million immigrants over the next 3 years, which is around 400,000 a year. That's around 15,000 invites each draw if they want to hit that target.

There are different pathways

express entry is just 100k out that 400k. Check out the breakdown.

 

[m.q.z90]

There are different pathways

express entry is just 100k out that 400k. Check out the breakdown.

108k is the target for FSW 2021
I guess they'll stop somewhr at 102-105k this year.. Atleast i hope so..

 

[Scalphunter]

There are different pathways

express entry is just 100k out that 400k. Check out the breakdown.

Ah, I see. So it's 100k in FSW, FST, CEC, and PNP each?

 

[axmac]

I don't think they pick the ideal score or date. They know they want 4500 in the draw so the algorithm picks the 4500 highest scoring profile and the score of the last profile becomes the cutoff. So anyone with a score higher than last profile gets picked. I'm not sure how the tie breaker is calculated.

If they actually pick the cut off score, then everyone's at the mercy of the picker's whim.

Right, I agree with you. But as I understand it, with each lower score, there would be a lot more people stuck in the pool (with that score) for months. So if it goes to say a 470, the date would automatically go backwards from October 26th, because an October 26th cut-off would activate tens of thousands of 470 candidates from months before. So realistically, the lower the score, the lower the chances of getting through a tie-breaker. Let's hope it gets to 469, man!

 

[Rémi Beauséjours]

Sure, but Canada is also aiming to get 1.2 million immigrants over the next 3 years, which is around 400,000 a year. That's around 15,000 invites each draw if they want to hit that target.

This is devastating. Seems it's time for me to forget about it.

We already have more than 200,000 candidates expired COPR’s from 2019 and 2020 and another 200,000 of 2020 pending for PPRs.
Which will take more than half of the quota in 2021.
This year landings were less than 100,000 !

 

[Scalphunter]

Right, I agree with you. But as I understand it, with each lower score, there would be a lot more people stuck in the pool (with that score) for months. So if it goes to say a 470, the date would automatically go backwards from October 26th, because an October 26th cut-off would activate tens of thousands of 470 candidates from months before. So realistically, the lower the score, the lower the chances of getting through a tie-breaker. Let's hope it gets to 469, man!

Yeah, makes sense. Here's hoping.

 

[Himanshu6444]

Now again it will take 6 -7 draws to go to 471.