Ray of hope - FSW - 1

[Scalphunter]

Some bilinguals got their scores bumped up, never forget that.

Yeah, but is the total number of bilinguals who got their scores bumped, new 471+ profiles, provincial nominated profiles together greater than 4500 between Nov 5th and the next draw? If no, the cutoff will drop.

 

[joconstantine]

I am a silent follower of this thread and to have some optimism i come here to check posts. I am sure there would be others who sail in the same boat. I stand at 471 and i have my birthday on 7th January. I will come down to 466 after that. Me and my husband both got CLB 9 in March. Soon after that Covid thing happened and all programs draws stopped. My husband’s WES couldn’t be done because we were unable to get transcripts. Somehow we got and posted that in August. His WES report came right after 14th October’s draw (after taking almost 3 months time-irony again, they said they did not receive it, we raised a ticket and so on ). We were very hopeful that in next draw, that was supposed to be on 28th October, we finally have a bright chance, since cutoff was consistently dropping in past 3-4 draws and it was at 471 then. Just before a day, on 27th October, they come up with this new french update and again cutoff has jumped off! IRCC must now be regular with the draws and I really pray that cutoff comes down to 471 at least by December. Fingers crossed !!

Sorry for long post

Try retaking IeLts, and get to clb 10 for 2-3 modules.

 

[Carmen01]

 

[s.sharma07]

Yes, i think that’s the only hope.

I got 9 (L) and 8 (R) in last attempt. Need atleast 7.5 each in writing and speaking for CLB 10.

 

[ns317]

I am a silent follower of this thread and to have some optimism i come here to check posts. I am sure there would be others who sail in the same boat. I stand at 471 and i have my birthday on 7th January. I will come down to 466 after that. Me and my husband both got CLB 9 in March. Soon after that Covid thing happened and all programs draws stopped. My husband’s WES couldn’t be done because we were unable to get transcripts. Somehow we got and posted that in August. His WES report came right after 14th October’s draw (after taking almost 3 months time-irony again, they said they did not receive it, we raised a ticket and so on ). We were very hopeful that in next draw, that was supposed to be on 28th October, we finally have a bright chance, since cutoff was consistently dropping in past 3-4 draws and it was at 471 then. Just before a day, on 27th October, they come up with this new french update and again cutoff has jumped off! IRCC must now be regular with the draws and I really pray that cutoff comes down to 471 at least by December. Fingers crossed !!

Sorry for long post

471 was the stabilizing point (where inflow of candidates equaled invites sent every two weeks) pre covid with 3900 invites. EE demand has been continuously increasing over the last two years, and the stabilizing score would only go up unless they increase the number of invites.

So last month, 471 again became somewhat close to the stabilizing point with 4500 invites. Now I doubt they’ll increase the invites beyond 4500 per draw because that number allows them to reach their targets. Hence it’s quite likely that the stabilizing point will be higher than 471 going forward.

Last draw was 478 (the score went up because there was a 3 week gap between draws, not due to any French points impact), only 3 more draws left in the year in all likelihood. So it’s unlikely the score will drop to 471 again this year. It’s best to look for ways to increase the score if you’re at 471.

It’s difficult to predict a safe score at the moment since no one really know how much the increased points for French impacts the CRS. I don’t think it’ll be much of an impact. However the organic demand for the EE program is likely to keep increasing the CRS score and so, 473-475 is probably much safer than 471 at the moment. 6 months later, 478 might be the safe score. It’s important to realize that even the concept of a safe score is a dynamic one as far as this program is concerned. So the sooner one acts, the safer one gets.

 

[Carmen01]

Another day for permutations and computations

 

[Naxwell]

Another day for permutations and computations

And "Pessimistications"

 

[Emman O.]

And "Pessimistications"

Lol. There are lots of them here. Inasmuch as I know everyone should try to improve their points, it's not necessary to drive people on the fear factor. The cut off peaked at 478, and it will start coming down from there. It's so simple to analyze.

 

[jrossi]

Tbh, I was initially scared we are in the 480+ era. But the draw yesterday, and the information in the pool is clear to see. Even if there's no b2b, the score will drop. Without b2b, the cut off in two weeks time cannot be 478 again, it will be 475-476. That's how it will drop in bits.

yes, absolutely. Of course the score will drop in the next draw. But to predict it will touch 471 by the end of the year... it’s quite a tall order. The influx in the pool shows there’s roughly 4,000 candidates being added to the 471-600 range every 2 weeks + an average of 300-400 PNPs every 2 weeks. Which means we can expect a reduction of around 100-200 candidates in the 471-480 range every month. With that, I don’t see how a 471 is going to happen this year. It’s just numbers. Might happen around January/February if the influx gets reduced.
If anyone is sitting at 471-472 and is approaching their birthday (+30yr), this is their last call to schedule a new IELTS/TCF session, before it’s too late (not to say it will then become impossible, but will become even harder).

 

[joconstantine]

Yes, i think that’s the only hope.

I got 9 (L) and 8 (R) in last attempt. Need atleast 7.5 each in writing and speaking for CLB 10.

Yes, please do yourselves a big favor retrying IELTS test(s). It will not be difficult if you put in an extra effort. You won't regret this, even with an extra 3 points, you will have a much greater chance. Wish you all the best!

 

[abqalhamairi]

I really cant understand anyone who says that french points increase did not have an impact on the increased CRS score! What kind of an analysis is that? And what is backing your idea? FSW stopped for 4 months and CRS stopped at 478, now, it stopped for an additional WEEK and only due to that, it hit 478 again! How is that logical!

 

[jrossi]

I really cant understand anyone who says that french points increase did not have an impact on the increased CRS score! What kind of an analysis is that? And what is backing your idea? FSW stopped for 4 months and CRS stopped at 478, now, it stopped for an additional WEEK and only due to that, it hit 478 again! How is that logical!

1 - at that time, the CEC candidates above 470 kept leaving the pool every 2 weeks. Also, IELTS were not available everywhere. That’s why it remained “under control” even with 6 months of CEC only draws.
2 - The reason for 478 is a mix of a 3 week buffer in the pool (something that didn’t happen in any of the CEC/PNP draws), and specially, the 1000 PNPs. Previous draws were ranging from 300-500 PNPs, this one had 1000!
3 - Again, official data from IRCC: only 4% of candidates in the pool speak French, less than 2.8% of candidates that get PR speak French, probably half of these 2.8% are not bilingual, but actually people who came from French-speaking countries with no much knowledge of English. That means, let’s say, 1.5% of the candidates who received ITAs in 2019 were bilingual. That’s a very small number. Add to that the fact that those who were bilingual already had 30 bonus points before the change in the CRS Criteria. It’s very unlikely these candidates weren’t already at the upper 480’s. Myself, being bilingual in French and English, received my ITA sitting at 508 (would be 528 in the new criteria). You see? For these candidates, these 20 extra points really didn’t matter.

 

[Carmen01]

I have coffee and pastries...anyone care to join me?
You all please continue with the analysis, I want to see something.

 

[ns317]

1 - at that time, the CEC candidates above 470 kept leaving the pool every 2 weeks. Also, IELTS were not available everywhere. That’s why it remained “under control” even with 6 months of CEC only draws.
2 - The reason for 478 is a mix of a 3 week buffer in the pool (something that didn’t happen in any of the CEC/PNP draws), and specially, the 1000 PNPs. Previous draws were ranging from 300-500 PNPs, this one had 1000!
3 - Again, official data from IRCC: only 4% of candidates in the pool speak French, less than 2.8% of candidates that get PR speak French, probably half of these 2.8% are not bilingual, but actually people who came from French-speaking countries with no much knowledge of English. That means, let’s say, 1.5% of the candidates who received ITAs in 2019 were bilingual. That’s a very small number. Add to that the fact that those who were bilingual already had 30 bonus points before the change in the CRS Criteria. It’s very unlikely these candidates weren’t already at the upper 480’s. Myself, being bilingual in French and English, received my ITA sitting at 508 (would be 528 in the new criteria). You see? For these candidates, these 20 extra points really didn’t matter.

Half of 2.8% is probably too generous a share for those who are bilingual. I’d estimate it to be 20% of 2.8% at most.

The additional ITAs granted due to the points change would be trivial, barely enough to increase the CRS by even 1 point. Even a super high estimate of 10% of all ITAs last draw, or 450 out of 4500, seems unlikely, which is approximately what’s needed to increase the CRS by 1 point in the 470s.

 

[abqalhamairi]

1 - at that time, the CEC candidates above 470 kept leaving the pool every 2 weeks. Also, IELTS were not available everywhere. That’s why it remained “under control” even with 6 months of CEC only draws.
2 - The reason for 478 is a mix of a 3 week buffer in the pool (something that didn’t happen in any of the CEC/PNP draws), and specially, the 1000 PNPs. Previous draws were ranging from 300-500 PNPs, this one had 1000!
3 - Again, official data from IRCC: only 4% of candidates in the pool speak French, less than 2.8% of candidates that get PR speak French, probably half of these 2.8% are not bilingual, but actually people who came from French-speaking countries with no much knowledge of English. That means, let’s say, 1.5% of the candidates who received ITAs in 2019 were bilingual. That’s a very small number. Add to that the fact that those who were bilingual already had 30 bonus points before the change in the CRS Criteria. It’s very unlikely these candidates weren’t already at the upper 480’s. Myself, being bilingual in French and English, received my ITA sitting at 508 (would be 528 in the new criteria). You see? For these candidates, these 20 extra points really didn’t matter.

Man! I respect you, but your analysis makes no sense! You are a guy who benefited from the french extra points prior to 20/10/2020 and you are telling me that people like you are way too less to be significant to affect ONE draw?