Hey Pawshi/ Astral, u ppl have done good analysis and this is what the thread needs.Pawshi said:I totally agree with your views. However, I have difference of opinion on PNP figures. I consider this as to be 15% in each draw. If you see November 30, 2016 draw, it was 559. This was when, OINP was on full flow.
However, please also factor the withdrawl/rejection rate. If you see David Cohen (Canada Immigration) video, the rejection rate in the paper based applications was around 35%. Due to high scores in 2016, many have cooked up the scores and are declining the ITAs, so that they can come back in the pool and modify the EE profile to have 100% accurate profile.
From October 2016 to till date almost 26610+ ITAs have been issued. Considering 15% of them as PNP, then it becomes 22600+ as economic immigrants till date.
Total annual target for economic immigrants is 72000+. If we consider 1:1.5 as ITA vs family ratio, then we need 54000 ITAs from October 2016 to September 2017 period. Already 22600 is gone, so we are left with 31400 ITAs for next 7 months. This breaks down to 4500 per month. Add 1000 for the PNP per month. Add conservative rejection ratio - 20% (which used to be 35% earlier). This leads to 1000 per month.
So overall, 4500+1000+1000=6500 per month means 3200 plus draw every two weeks.
I dont see a reason of the fall in draw size, atleast for the next three months. March, April and May 2017. Considering total 7 draws (including one more draw of Feb), I do believe that scores will drop to 420+/- 10 by May end.
I more or less arrived at the same figures trying/analyzing to understand the last few draws and when i tried to relate it to last year report i feel that something might b amiss. Can u relate the same math to last year report figures by considering a reasonable increase in no of additions and rejections as u have taken in ur post. I feel the score should go down lower to 400 and low soon.
400 - 449 13,537
440 - 449 2,486
430 - 439 2,842
420 - 429 2,185
410 - 419 2,899
400 - 409 3,125
am i on track or lost some wer?