Ray of Hope - 47th Draw

[kryt0n]

Do you guys think their will be a draw tomorrow?

Right now I have 990 points.. after those changes I will have miserable 440

So you have 390 without an lmia? You could take your language test again, or get more work experience. That will help.

 

[aircanada]

For masters grads, they may have already got PR through old PNP stream, such as OINP master stream. I mean, some of people you mentioned can get PR via other programs, no one knows how many these people are still waiting in the pool. Let's see the first draw after Nov 19th.

OINP masters/phd nomination plus paper based PR takes over 2 years. Anyone who has graduated in the past year and a half cannot have received PR through that.

 

[fatani]

International students who did a bachelor in Canada and worked for a year on PGWP currently have 444 points. This group has never received ITA before. Their points will jump to 474 overnight.
Same for masters grads with no Canadian exp, they have never been selected out of the pool either.

Likely it'll take a few draws for points to come down, at least.

Not many students are on 444. Before bonus points I have seen on this forum and other websites as well and other experts such as lawyers and others. All students on this forum or on other websites claimed that Majority of intl students are on 380-400 points so let and all the experts and lawyers also said thats why they wanted 100 bonus points atleast.

After the changes lots of intl students got dissappointed with only 30 points. That clearly suggests that most of them are not in the range of 430-440. Let assume there are 30% students out of 100% students in the pool are in the range of 430 or above which will take them upto 460 or above. So yes first few draws we will see scores will remain a bit high but after the backlog of these students getting cleared the scores will go down considering new students take time to finish and get experience and then come not like LMIAs that you get 400-500 of them in every draw.

And last point well suppose if most intl students are on 444 they should have worked a bit more and could have gone upto 460-470. If I were a student on 444 i should have looked to get exp or score more in language tests rather than demanding bonus. So all of them are not on 444. And in EE year end report we saw only 13K candidates were in the range of 400-449 and mind you score have not gone below 450. And I think out of 13K only 30-40% of them would have been students. Let suppose if there are 26K in the range of 400-450 without bonus and even 50% of them are students it means 13K students are between 400-450 and lets take 50% of them will be in the range of 425-450. So there are 6.5-7K students are in the range of 425-450 without bonus. So even if that is the case they will reach up above 450 and even if 1.5K of them gets cleared in every draw we will see them all clearing up in 4-5 draws. So after that scores will drop.

And even then These numbers are maxum estimates

 

[IgnacioValls]

Not many students are on 444. Before bonus points I have seen on this forum and other websites as well and other experts such as lawyers and others. All students on this forum or on other websites claimed that Majority of intl students are on 380-400 points so let and all the experts and lawyers also said thats why they wanted 100 bonus points atleast.

After the changes lots of intl students got dissappointed with only 30 points. That clearly suggests that most of them are not in the range of 430-440. Let assume there are 30% students out of 100% students in the pool are in the range of 430 or above which will take them upto 460 or above. So yes first few draws we will see scores will remain a bit high but after the backlog of these students getting cleared the scores will go down considering new students take time to finish and get experience and then come not like LMIAs that you get 400-500 of them in every draw.

And last point well suppose if most intl students are on 444 they should have worked a bit more and could have gone upto 460-470. If I were a student on 444 i should have looked to get exp or score more in language tests rather than demanding bonus. So all of them are not on 444. And in EE year end report we saw only 13K candidates were in the range of 400-449 and mind you score have not gone below 450. And I think out of 13K only 30-40% of them would have been students. Let suppose if there are 26K in the range of 400-450 without bonus and even 50% of them are students it means 13K students are between 400-450 and lets take 50% of them will be in the range of 425-450. So there are 6.5-7K students are in the range of 425-450 without bonus. So even if that is the case they will reach up above 450 and even if 1.5K of them gets cleared in every draw we will see them all clearing up in 4-5 draws. So after that scores will drop.

And even then These numbers are maxum estimates

Well calculated!

 

[IamBalvinder]

I'd completed my ECA on 25th October, but didn't register for EE profile. Went on holidays later.
Created it on 14th November, seeing that I'm getting 475 points. Was surprised to see that I've missed such a chance.

Hoping there will be a draw soon, or cutoff to remain similar to current draws.
Fingers crossed.

 

[ravdawg]

Not many students are on 444. Before bonus points I have seen on this forum and other websites as well and other experts such as lawyers and others. All students on this forum or on other websites claimed that Majority of intl students are on 380-400 points so let and all the experts and lawyers also said thats why they wanted 100 bonus points atleast.

After the changes lots of intl students got dissappointed with only 30 points. That clearly suggests that most of them are not in the range of 430-440. Let assume there are 30% students out of 100% students in the pool are in the range of 430 or above which will take them upto 460 or above. So yes first few draws we will see scores will remain a bit high but after the backlog of these students getting cleared the scores will go down considering new students take time to finish and get experience and then come not like LMIAs that you get 400-500 of them in every draw.

And last point well suppose if most intl students are on 444 they should have worked a bit more and could have gone upto 460-470. If I were a student on 444 i should have looked to get exp or score more in language tests rather than demanding bonus. So all of them are not on 444. And in EE year end report we saw only 13K candidates were in the range of 400-449 and mind you score have not gone below 450. And I think out of 13K only 30-40% of them would have been students. Let suppose if there are 26K in the range of 400-450 without bonus and even 50% of them are students it means 13K students are between 400-450 and lets take 50% of them will be in the range of 425-450. So there are 6.5-7K students are in the range of 425-450 without bonus. So even if that is the case they will reach up above 450 and even if 1.5K of them gets cleared in every draw we will see them all clearing up in 4-5 draws. So after that scores will drop.

And even then These numbers are maxum estimates

To be honest, most international students who did a bachelors degree at a canadian university, should be scoring pretty high on the IELTS and getting near full marks on CLB english. Which WOULD get them 444. But i guess many internationals did only a 1-2 year diploma, and didn't get as high IELTS as they can.

I am fine with that to be honest. Needs to be some separation of 1-2 year college diplomas at Humber versus bachelors/masters at a University. Just how it is.

 

[thestunner316]

Not many students are on 444. Before bonus points I have seen on this forum and other websites as well and other experts such as lawyers and others. All students on this forum or on other websites claimed that Majority of intl students are on 380-400 points so let and all the experts and lawyers also said thats why they wanted 100 bonus points atleast.

After the changes lots of intl students got dissappointed with only 30 points. That clearly suggests that most of them are not in the range of 430-440. Let assume there are 30% students out of 100% students in the pool are in the range of 430 or above which will take them upto 460 or above. So yes first few draws we will see scores will remain a bit high but after the backlog of these students getting cleared the scores will go down considering new students take time to finish and get experience and then come not like LMIAs that you get 400-500 of them in every draw.

And last point well suppose if most intl students are on 444 they should have worked a bit more and could have gone upto 460-470. If I were a student on 444 i should have looked to get exp or score more in language tests rather than demanding bonus. So all of them are not on 444. And in EE year end report we saw only 13K candidates were in the range of 400-449 and mind you score have not gone below 450. And I think out of 13K only 30-40% of them would have been students. Let suppose if there are 26K in the range of 400-450 without bonus and even 50% of them are students it means 13K students are between 400-450 and lets take 50% of them will be in the range of 425-450. So there are 6.5-7K students are in the range of 425-450 without bonus. So even if that is the case they will reach up above 450 and even if 1.5K of them gets cleared in every draw we will see them all clearing up in 4-5 draws. So after that scores will drop.

And even then These numbers are maxum estimates

where did you get the EE year end report ? is it for 2015 or 2016 ? been looking for it for a while...

 

[7fifty]

Not many students are on 444. Before bonus points I have seen on this forum and other websites as well and other experts such as lawyers and others. All students on this forum or on other websites claimed that Majority of intl students are on 380-400 points so let and all the experts and lawyers also said thats why they wanted 100 bonus points atleast.

After the changes lots of intl students got dissappointed with only 30 points. That clearly suggests that most of them are not in the range of 430-440. Let assume there are 30% students out of 100% students in the pool are in the range of 430 or above which will take them upto 460 or above. So yes first few draws we will see scores will remain a bit high but after the backlog of these students getting cleared the scores will go down considering new students take time to finish and get experience and then come not like LMIAs that you get 400-500 of them in every draw.

And last point well suppose if most intl students are on 444 they should have worked a bit more and could have gone upto 460-470. If I were a student on 444 i should have looked to get exp or score more in language tests rather than demanding bonus. So all of them are not on 444. And in EE year end report we saw only 13K candidates were in the range of 400-449 and mind you score have not gone below 450. And I think out of 13K only 30-40% of them would have been students. Let suppose if there are 26K in the range of 400-450 without bonus and even 50% of them are students it means 13K students are between 400-450 and lets take 50% of them will be in the range of 425-450. So there are 6.5-7K students are in the range of 425-450 without bonus. So even if that is the case they will reach up above 450 and even if 1.5K of them gets cleared in every draw we will see them all clearing up in 4-5 draws. So after that scores will drop.

And even then These numbers are maxum estimates

Not to say you are wrong, but I was a student now on PGWP

Graduated from undergrad (engineering) in 2014 + 2 years work experience in Canada and started work right after graduation in NOC B type job & CLB 10+ CELPIP
My current score is 469 (trust me, I've maxed out everything!!!). And there are many people like me that I know...

 

[thestunner316]

Not to say you are wrong, but I was a student now on PGWP

Graduated from undergrad (engineering) in 2014 + 2 years work experience in Canada and started work right after graduation in NOC B type job & CLB 10+ CELPIP
My current score is 469 (trust me, I've maxed out everything!!!). And there are many people like me that I know...

so 469 is with the new or the old score system ?

 

[patricia.hple]

Distribution of international students by type of program:
http://www.international.gc.ca/education/report-rapport/economic-impact-economique/sec_4.aspx?lang=eng

Old stats. but it gives you some idea of the proportion/ distribution.

50-55% of international students are at university level. but this spread across 4 years. so the number of international student at bachelor's level each year is ~48,000 students maximum.

Then you discount for actual graduation rate (!), % apply for PR (not all want PR), language capability (not all students score CLB 10, trust me on this), funding, and other factors.

I don't think the number of "perfect" undergrad student in the pool is more than 10%, or 4,800 students.
Then you gotta add some for Masters and PhD etc. But those are significantly smaller number.
Overall, ~6k - 7k students ==> gone in 3-4 draws.

 

[cool_canada]

For FSW outland applicants the maximum possible CRS is 484. If we determine the average percentage of population, we can somehow guess how low the score can go in addition to your analysis above.

 

[thestunner316]

For FSW outland applicants the maximum possible CRS is 484. If we determine the average percentage of population, we can somehow guess how low the score can go in addition to your analysis above.

i thought it was 481, where did the extra 3 points come from
and just remember thats english speaking candidates, french speaking ones with TEF will score higher

 

[cool_canada]

i thought it was 481, where did the extra 3 points come from
and just remember thats english speaking candidates, french speaking ones with TEF will score higher

Well, this is what I got in the CIC CRS Calculator. High score of English and French speaking should be considered as rearest.

 

[fatani]

where did you get the EE year end report ? is it for 2015 or 2016 ? been looking for it for a while...

EE year end report of 2015. Which said as on jan 3 2016 there were 13K between 400-449. Thats why I said that we should double this number and assume as if there are 26K.

 

[fatani]

Not to say you are wrong, but I was a student now on PGWP

Graduated from undergrad (engineering) in 2014 + 2 years work experience in Canada and started work right after graduation in NOC B type job & CLB 10+ CELPIP
My current score is 469 (trust me, I've maxed out everything!!!). And there are many people like me that I know...

To be honest CLB 9-10 Is not everyones cup of tea and I agree with you that there are lots of them like you. Thats why I said 6.5-7K students above 430. Above 430 means it could be 440-450-60-70-80-90 or 500. But let if a person is above 430 with 30 bonus he/she will come in the range of 450-500 thats why I said minimum 430.

6.5-7K is still a huge number if this the number it will take 2.5-3 months to clear up i.e. 5-6 draws. But if you look befor the bonus points has been announced every 7 out of 10 students were saying that there should be atleast 100 points and lots of them said avg score of intl student is 380.

If we look at the EE yr End report of 2015. It says as on 3rd jan 2016 there were 60K active profiles in the pool. So if you assume that now there will be 100K profiles. And we cant translate every profile as an applicant because lots of people have 2 profiles one of husband one of wife. If anyone of them gets ITA the other has been withdrawn. So still suppose if there are 100K profiles as of now.

If 30% of them means 30K are students in the pool. And majority means 75% of them are below 420. It means still there will 6.5-7K students in the pool which will go over to 450 with bonus or still are over 450 like you.