Ray of Hope - 46th Draw

[kryt0n]

You seem to be having a bad day. Perhaps channelizing your energy on improving your CRS score would be more beneficial instead of commenting here lol

BURRRRRRRN

 

[Alexios07]

I'm not so sure. When (because I don't think it's IF any longer) these new changes come in the points are going to go haywire. Giving international students extra points, and reducing points for LMIA are only a small fraction of what he could/or might do. There might be points for siblings, changes to points for age, points for bringing kids, points for certain occupations.... who knows!

Or could next to no changes of course...

Yup, that's why I said we need a fictional ray like the one from the Death Star to reach 440, or Delusional Ray to reach 400. Once all the new points are adding in, no way cut off points can go below 450.

 

[Aal_]

Was it mentioned anywhere that they might give more points for french speaking applicants?

 

[samanta60]

Congrats to all those that finally got an ITA. I'm still sitting at 462, but I admit this draw today was unexpected for me.

I still don't understand why CRS score remains quite close to last draw (484 vs 475) even raising the number of ITAs (1500 to 1800). Does anyone know if it has to be with PNP?

Is it possible another draw next Wednesday? 1800 ITAs again?

Anyway I think this are great news and hope the trend remains this way.

Before this draw, there were I think 12 draws in which no single person with score below 483 had not been invited. Usually there are about 800 people every two weeks with score above let's say 484. So this time probabily 1000 people in range [475-483] have been selected, who have been accumulated during last 12 draws. Which means usually there are on average 84 people in [475-483] per draw (every two weeks), this means almost 8 people on each single score (at scores near 470 or 480, not everywhere).

Next draw: 800 people above 483 will be invited. If they invite 1000 people it means 200 with scores lower than 483. and if we assume there are 8 sitting on each score then it means 200/8=25 scores below 483. I rather assume 20 not to be too optimistic. Then it means we go down to 483-20=463 with even only 1000 invitations.

To me this seems quite surprising. So please let us know if any of you BIG Data people see any mis-calculation or wrong assumption in what I said.

 

[Alexios07]

Was it mentioned anywhere that they might give more points for french speaking applicants?

Read this thread:

Potential changes in Express Entry in upcoming months (released by IRCC)

There will definitely be a big surge in cut off score in November.

To me this seems quite surprising. So please let us know if any of you BIG Data people see any mis-calculation or wrong assumption in what I said.

We have that Andy guy here in this forum with his sophisticate prediction website. Maybe check with him?

 

[sunchaser]

My guess - With 1800 draws next, cut-off would drop to ~465-469 8)

 

[JALT]

Yup, that's why I said we need a fictional ray like the one from the Death Star to reach 440.

I just don't see how blowing up IRCC is going to help

 

[_Aspirant]

Congrats to all who got invites. This draw gave a big hope to people like me.

 

[JosephR]

My guess - With 1800 draws next, cut-off would drop to ~465-469 8)

Thanks. God will bless you. +1 for you

 

[YOF2015]

Sitting on 463 and waiting patiently for the up coming draws....

 

[thourb]

Based on your calculation, how many candidates do you think are now waiting at 450s and 440s? Those are the 2 first "large" groups according to the report https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cerc.ca/resource/resmgr/government_relations/Express_entry_national_stake.pdf

It's somewhat more difficult to work out the 440's and 450's from the data. The primary reason for this is that we don't have any draws in the 440's at all, so the best I can easily calculate is a snapshot of how many candidates were in the 440's on the date in question. Similarly, the closest previous draw to the stats we have available in the 450's is 453 on 24/02/16, which makes it difficult to calculate as well. I'll give my best guess though:

People in the range 450-459 on 28/03/16: ~0.8% of the total pool (~60,000 candidates) = 480. There was a draw on 24/02/16 which cleared out everyone as low as 453. Days between 24/02/16 and 28/03/16: 32. That means that approximately 15 people a day enter the pool with a score between 453-459. There has never since been a draw in the 450-460 range.

To work out the backlog I multiply the above average number of people entering the pool every day by the number of days since the last draw: 238 days x 15 people per day = 3570 people backlogged in the range 453-459.

For the 440's all I can say is that 4.6% of the pool were in that range on that date, suggesting that the total number of people in the 440's in March was 2,760.

Assuming that the data is consistent year-on-year (a very big assumption!), there are already published stats from January 2016 showing the composition of the pool broken down into 10's from CIC (accurate as of January 3rd 2016):

440 - 449 2,486
430 - 439 2,842
420 - 429 2,185
410 - 419 2,899
400 - 409 3,125

The increase in applicants in the 440's between 03/01/16 and 28/03/16 was approximately 274 (in 87 days, or only 3.15 candidates per day). Assuming that these numbers increased in a linear fashion, there would be now an additional 750 candidates in the 440-449 range (for a total of 3236 candidates). I doubt that this is anywhere near correct though and it is likely to be much higher. The reason for this is that we only really have the first year's EE data before anyone's EE profiles started to expire. I would bet that a high number of people whose EE profiles expired without an ITA would have created a new profile this year, with many keeping the same score as they had last year. If around half of the people whose profiles expired after a year have recreated them then the number of people in the 440-449 range would balloon from 3236 to 4854, which would be more consistent with my other estimates. There's just no way of knowing at this stage.

What will be really interesting is to see the CIC end of year report for 2016 now that we're reaching a point where the backlog of pre EE applications is nearing completion and we'll be two years into EE, so we'll be able to get a better idea of how much (or whether) the EE pool grows year on year. In the end, I expect this debate to be somewhat academic in the long-run as there's little doubt in my mind that once the old backlog is cleared we'll be looking at around 2500 ITAs per week with scores dropping considerably. On top of that, there will be some major changes to CRS score calculation in the near-future which will throw anyone's estimates out of whack.

Summary: My estimate of people in the 450's - approximately 3570, perhaps as high as 4000. 440-449, who knows - but I expect somewhere between 3236 and perhaps as many as 5000.

 

[JosephR]

Ontario started pumping tons of nominations every month. That makes a huge number of +600 crs score accumulating.

Its just a reduction of 9 points even with 1804 ITAs . This slow trend will continue until Ontario nominations got finished.

Still I hope that crs score will come to the level of 450 within a couple of months.

 

[ravdawg]

BC gave a bunch of PNPs ITAs too. this month..so they will have a downstream effect in a few months

 

[patricia.hple]

In 2015, CIC issued 31,063 ITAs. In 2016, so far they have only issued 23,902 ITAs. Let's be conservative and assume that they keep the same level as last year, that is another 7,161 ITAs to be issued in the upcoming draws. We have ~4 left? That is an average of 1,790 ITAs per draw. So actually the chance to clear 460s before the end of the year is quite high in my opinion. I'm just hoping though, that there is some chances for people in the 50s and 40s as well! Be positive guys

 

[YOF2015]

In 2015, CIC issued 31,063 ITAs. In 2016, so far they have only issued 23,902 ITAs. Let's be conservative and assume that they keep the same level as last year, that is another 7,161 ITAs to be issued in the upcoming draws. We have ~4 left? That is an average of 1,790 ITAs per draw. So actually the chance to clear 460s before the end of the year is quite high in my opinion. I'm just hoping though, that there is some chances for people in the 50s and 40s as well! Be positive guys

Hope what u said turns out to be true...