I posted a bit of an analysis in another thread which I don't think can be far off on the basis of this draw:
thourb said:
An interesting thing that I noticed from that presentation (https://c.ymcdn.com/sites/www.cerc.ca/resource/resmgr/government_relations/Express_entry_national_stake.pdf) is that CIC seem to have been a bit more transparent with their statistics than they are elsewhere - by breaking down CRS scores held by people on March 28th 2016 into 10's rather than 50's. I can only approximate this as the numbers aren't given, only a bar chart without the underlying data - but I'll give it a shot. Bear in mind that the statstics for everyone over 470 CRS reset 5 days prior to that snapshot, as on 23rd March there was a draw with a 470 cut off. It's not an especially large sample on which to base my estimates, but it's about the best I can find. I'm also using the 2015 year end report to assist with my calculations.
In my estimate, it seems that on 28/03 approximately 0.1% of the entire pool had scores in the 270s. On 3rd January there were 60,042 candidates in the pool. Assuming that the numbers remain broadly stable throughout, That would mean that in that 5 day period, approximately 60 people entered the pool with a score in the 470s. The number of people in the 460's is broadly similar, but the number of people who entered the pool in the 480's appears to be around a quarter of the number. Let's be generous and assume half so perhaps only 30 people.
There have been no draws below 470 since April 20th and since then there have been 176 days. On that basis I can approximate that there are 1056 people currently backlogged in the 480s (likely between 480 and 481) and 2112 people with scores in the 470s. That analysis puts away any suggestions that there are thousands of people waiting in the 480s like some are suggesting on here. A very small percentage seem to get that high a score. The difficulty is (and always has been) that with relatively modestly sized draws where half of the draw goes to those with PNP or LMIA there are few places which can be allocated to those based solely on CRS. I'm optimistic that when they change the points given for LMIAs that we will see a reasonable drop in the required CRS score.
Historically, on the data we have available, we know that 60% of ITAs go to those with PNPs or LMIAs. This is on the basis that there is an average 1350 ITAs given per draw (this is all based on 2015 data). So per draw we can expect 810 (on average) LMIA/PNP holders will get nomination. Thus in today's draw, I won't have been far off my estimates (likely a few hundred out) - 1800 ITAs of which 800 approx PNP/LMIA and approximately 1000 non LMIA/PNP. It's actually fairly likely that there were fewer LMIA/PNP in this draw (perhaps only half of the 810 average) due to this draw being only one week on from the previous draw. If that were the case then my guess is probably spot on - 1800 ITAs, 1400 of which have no PNP, 1000 in the 480s and 500 in the 470s.
On this basis, if we get another draw of around 1800 in a fortnight I would expect that 800 of those would be 600+, very few in the 480's (I expect no more than 60) and then perhaps around 900-1000 (around half of my earlier estimate now that much of any backlog has been cleared) in the 470s. All in all, if we get another draw of 1800 I expect scores to mostly clear the 470s and CRS will be in the range 469-472. If CRS drops down to 1500 I can't see it going below 472.
Will be really interested to see whether this rudimentary estimation that I've made based on very approximate data has any standing in reality, but on the basis of this past draw I'm pretty much spot on to what I'd expected.
