Ray of Hope - 43rd Draw

[DamhaSirah]

Ive done some simple analysis on the all of the Express entry draws

Simple Pivot Table

Simple line chart

Hope it helps someone.

+1 for the effort mate!

 

[Canada2425]

Ive done some simple analysis on the all of the Express entry draws

Simple Pivot Table

Simple line chart

Hope it helps someone.

Let's hope the red line in line chart attains it's normal behavior in upcoming draws. Cheers.

 

[Omidahomie]

hi!
i just make a calculation here.
the number of ppl was sent by ITA in 2015 is 29749
and by sep/7 the total num in 2016 is 19292.
if the number in 2016 is not less than 2015, assum equal to 29749
and we still have 7 chances (twice per month)
therefore, the num of ITAs has to reach to (29749-19292)/7 = 1493!! the number will tell the truth!

BUT
even the quota will increase in the coming future, but the score probabaly keeps the high level at least in Sep or in Oct.
Comparing the historical data, the score is being push up by PNP and other factors. And these high score may take at least two draws to digest and get back to around 465s (taking reference in 2015/11/27 and 2015/12/4).

Just personal thought...

Hi, Good analysis. But i think you should calculate it this way: 29, 749 ITA's in 2015 and only 19, 292 YTD 2016. Hence we are 10, 457 ITA's short if we are to assume same number of ITA's in 2016 vs. 2015. Hence they have to invite another c3,500 ppl per month in the remaining 3 months of 2016. Thats 1,750 ITA's per draw till end of 2016.

 

[_Aspirant]

Hi, Good analysis. But i think you should calculate it this way: 29, 749 ITA's in 2015 and only 19, 292 YTD 2016. Hence we are 10, 457 ITA's short if we are to assume same number of ITA's in 2016 vs. 2015. Hence they have to invite another c3,500 ppl per month in the remaining 3 months of 2016. Thats 1,750 ITA's per draw till end of 2016.

But maybe, we are forgetting Syrian refugees taken by IRCC. I read somewhere (don't remember exactly) that it made huge difference in number of economic quota of 2016.

I hope I am wrong.

 

[Augustiner]

Hi, Good analysis. But i think you should calculate it this way: 29, 749 ITA's in 2015 and only 19, 292 YTD 2016. Hence we are 10, 457 ITA's short if we are to assume same number of ITA's in 2016 vs. 2015. Hence they have to invite another c3,500 ppl per month in the remaining 3 months of 2016. Thats 1,750 ITA's per draw till end of 2016.

There are 8 more draws in 2016. My calculation is 10,457/8=1,307 per draw as if you gave those information.
1300 ITAs per draw is still a good number.

 

[Omidahomie]

Oh nice! By the way, i just updated my EE profile and the status now says under processing rather than open/active as before. You know how long this takes? Was just checking personal details and saved it again.

Hope the processing isnt too long!
Omer

 

[intensecool]

Oh nice! By the way, i just updated my EE profile and the status now says under processing rather than open/active as before. You know how long this takes? Was just checking personal details and saved it again.

Hope the processing isnt too long!
Omer

12-24 hours max.

 

[RoseEllie6]

Looks like if it follows trends it should go up a bit tho - last year the score was 455 in sept and 470 in oct so honestly let's hope for the best and that it decreases by at least 15 - i really hope i get selected and for everyone else as well - my score stands at 480 so etieherit decreases or i need to get a pnp.

I think the next score will prob be 485 if it lower as expected, what are you guys prediction for the upcoming sept 21st draw?

 

[Sluffy]

But maybe, we are forgetting Syrian refugees taken by IRCC. I read somewhere (don't remember exactly) that it made huge difference in number of economic quota of 2016.

I hope I am wrong.

The decrease in economic quota is about 15% or even 20%
So the number of ITAs in 2016 is smth like 25286, so less than 6000 are left.
But most of applications will be admitted in 2017, so since September they start to gain applications for 2017.

The possible scenario is that they will announce the quotas for 2017 in November 2016.

Untill that time they will use the same target as for 2016.

 

[Mermedz]

I think and greatly hope that the future draws will follow the trend of issuing more than 1,000 ITAs.

So, to calculate whether the CRS scores will go down, if the coming draw stays at 1,000 ITA level, we need to know how many PNPs on average enter the express entry. When the number of ITAs is somewhat greater than the number of people with PNPs, then the average CRS score will go down (in most cases).

There are also many other factors, however, this one is also important.

 

[Hot2Cold]

But maybe, we are forgetting Syrian refugees taken by IRCC. I read somewhere (don't remember exactly) that it made huge difference in number of economic quota of 2016.

I hope I am wrong.

I think the Syrian quota is seperate from the economic quota, wven though the latter is affected by the former. This is because the processing of both is divided between the same people.

The load from pre-EE applicants and Syrian refugees must have reduced drastically by now, that is why we are seeing an upward creep in the ITAs issued.

Looking forward to better news on the 21st. Good luck to all.

 

[ajithj]

I think the Syrian quota is seperate from the economic quota, wven though the latter is affected by the former. This is because the processing of both is divided between the same people.

The load from pre-EE applicants and Syrian refugees must have reduced drastically by now, that is why we are seeing an upward creep in the ITAs issued.

Looking forward to better news on the 21st. Good luck to all.

Economic quota was reduced by 15000 to accommodate Syrian refugees. There would be a reduction of around 6000 ITAs compared to 2015.

 

[Alexios07]

I meant pre-EE backlog.

The largest backlog is the pre-EE backlog, aka the floodgate system aka the first come first served system where IRCC could not control how many applications they could receive.

I honestly don't know why people on this forum keep saying that IRCC will clear all the backlog in $current_year. There are more than 383,000 applications in the backlog.

 

[NiHrPe]

The largest backlog is the pre-EE backlog, aka the floodgate system aka the first come first served system where IRCC could not control how many applications they could receive.

I honestly don't know why people on this forum keep saying that IRCC will clear all the backlog in $current_year. There are more than 383,000 applications in the backlog.

Some of those 380tish k have been waiting for 3 or 4 years... I imagine many of them have already moved to Aus or elsewhere, or given up completely... Not even sure if processing applications so old makes sense...

 

[Alexios07]

Some of those 380tish k have been waiting for 3 or 4 years... I imagine many of them have already moved to Aus or elsewhere, or given up completely... Not even sure if processing applications so old makes sense...

This is the latest data from March this year. If they are still in the system, then IRCC still has to process them one by one.