Ray of Hope - 119th Draw

[hove&B]

When is the new CRS cut of going to come? Menn this wait is like forever

If this wait is like forever for someone with your crs, what do you think it will be for those below 460 today or 450 long term?
Advice: chilax. A draw will come when it will because like they say, U can push an elevator button a 100 times, it wont come any faster.

 

[kalex123]

Good night guys see u in the morning

 

[LKRYA]

Along with my husband..my score is 453. If the scores are going to continue in 460 trend..my husband is asking me to delete his profile make me as single applicant with spouse not accompanying by which the scores will come around 460. If I do that will there be any issue. It would be helpful if someone shed light on this.

I am thinking on the same here. If I can get an idea on how hard or easy is to get the spouse after we land that would be great info. I will have 459 without spouse where I find more chance. And i hardly can see the score goes down to 447 soon.

 

[hove&B]

In other news, its a potential draw day today. Lets get ready for the usual pattern of events.

Endless questions on what time is the draw.

Fake draws posted

Real draw happens and endless comments like my crs is above 1200 why havent i received my ita message?

99 percent ita recipients disappear for good form the thread.

ROH 120 created and the regular trolls go into overdrive and make comments like CRS will never go below 470 and express entry will end by October.( though i did notice i made one or two of them look and they did engage in pre draw commentaries.The Human psychology is quite amazing.).

Anyhow it goes today, just like life, some will be filled with joy while others will be downcast.

Still a Ray Of Hope Forum.

 

[KMB2C2019]

As this thread is active, asking here:

I have a few years of freelance work included in my EE profile as the 100% shareholder of my company. I have 1 main stream of revenue from one main client and I have reference letter from them. dont have letter for smaller clients. they make up roughly 20% or less of total revenue. I have the articles of incorporation etc. Will these be enough?

Also I work simultaneously in a freelancing platform so I have included that separately as well because the starting dates are different. I have asked for and recieved approx 3-4 letters from ex clients. But its nothing compared to my total number of clients there and most people just order once and never return bakc to the platform so its hard to get letter from everyone. I do have order history etc to prove everything along with money trail.

So wondering if my second bit of work will be counted or not. If its not accepted due to lack of evidence will there be any issue with my application post ITA? I already have sufficient points from work experience without this. I only mentioned this so that I am fully transparent with my work experience.

 

[LKRYA]

Hey dear, I have made an estimation before when we were hoping there would be a draw last Wednesday on 5th June, but I will put the data again


My estimation based on 24th May score distribution is below:
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 24, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 729
451-600 4,624
441-450 5,872

Means in 14 days from May 10th to May 24th there were about:

601-1,200: (729-317= 412/14days = 29profile/day

451-600: (4624-1668=2957/14days = 211profile/day)

441-450: (5872-5360 = 510/14days = 36profile/day

So, by 29th May, the distribution will be approximately:

600-1200: 729 + 145 (29profile x 5days) = 874

451-600: 4,624 + 1055(211profilex5days ) = 5679

441-450: 5872 + 180(36profilex5day) =6052

Number of nvitation issued on 29th May is 3350. So, the 874profile with 600+points would have all received ITA. (3350-874 =2476)

Remaining 2476 will be taken from 451-600point range. So 5679-2476= 3203.

Therefore, after the invitation,the score distribution will be:

600+ = 0
451-600 =3203
441-450=6052

By 12th June, the score will be approximately:

600+= 406 (29profile x14days)
451-600= 3203+ 2954(211x14) =6157
441-450=6052 + 504(36x14)=6556

I believe that those 3203 profiles(451-600range) left in the pool after the 29th May are those who have score of 470-451.

After the 12th June draw the score distribution should be:

With 3350ITAs
600+= 0
451-600= 3213 (6157-2944)
441-450=6556

With 3500ITAs
600+= 0
451-600= 3063(6157-3094)
441-450=6556

With 3900ITAs
600+= 0
451-600= 2663(6157-3494)
441-450=6556

I can't estimate the cutoff score as it depends on the density of the 451-600 score. All I know is If CIC really have a target of issuing 90,000 ITAs this year then with the 14 draws left to go, they will have to issue approximately 3,900 ITAs per draw from this coming Wednesday iif they really want to achieve the target. Currently, they had issued 35100 ITAs (2x3900 + 8x3350 + 500 FST) since January, so 54900 ITAs to go divided by 14 draws = 3921 ITAs. Therefore, it will be faster for the cutoff score to go back below 450. If they stick with 3350 then unfortunately, it might take 4draws atleast to reach 450 again especially with the high number of high scorers enter the pool daily.

This is very well done! gratitude for your time put in to this.

 

[EnthuChap]

Something is better for nothing..seniors please add your views @13nitinsharma @WantToImmigrate @Not_Your_Donkey_Kong

I will say look how it pans out in the next 2-3 draws and u can take a call on making it non-accompanying. It's the action time now with increased draw size and things can happen real fast. So extend your patience a tad more. Cheers

 

[EnthuChap]

It's going to be 3700 or more.

I'll be content with any increment for now.

 

[nadal87]

Along with my husband..my score is 453. If the scores are going to continue in 460 trend..my husband is asking me to delete his profile make me as single applicant with spouse not accompanying by which the scores will come around 460. If I do that will there be any issue. It would be helpful if someone shed light on this.

You might want to reconsider as it amounts to misinterpretation in the eyes of the VO officer who will assigned to process your case.

You will need to have a very good reason for why your spouse won’t be accompanying you. Common reasons include, separation, death, disability etc. It would be very difficult for you to explain the reason and even harder for the VO to believe your reason in other circumstances. Also consider the possibility that they can reject your application if they believe that you have misrepresented facts to increase your CRS score.

There is a thread on the same topic, please read it thoroughly before going ahead with your decision.

https://www.canadavisa.com/canada-immigration-discussion-board/threads/regarding-spouse-and-child-not-accompanying.475472/

 

[ExpressMan]

This is probably the longest ROH thread at 142 pages.

 

[indpnv]

This is probably the longest ROH thread at 142 pages.

Not even close, check ROH 68

 

[cdddelhi]

PREDICTION FOR TODAYS DRAW:

ITA’s : 3,350
CRS: 461-463

ITA’s: 3,500
CRS: 460-462

ITA’s: 3,750
CRS: 459-461

ITA’s: 3,900
CRS: 457-459

My suggestion

“NEVER LOSE HOPE
AS THE PAIN YOU'VE BEEN FEELING,
WILL SOON GO AWAY,
AND JOY IS ON THE WAY.” .

All The Best to everyone

 

[Punitsingh]

PREDICTION FOR TODAYS DRAW:

ITA’s : 3,350
CRS: 461-463

ITA’s: 3,500
CRS: 460-462

ITA’s: 3,750
CRS: 459-461

ITA’s: 3,900
CRS: 457-459

My suggestion

“NEVER LOSE HOPE
AS THE PAIN YOU'VE BEEN FEELING,
WILL SOON GO AWAY,
AND JOY IS ON THE WAY.” .

All The Best to everyone

Slightly positive, but possible

 

[ExpressMan]

So..when does the CIC usually annoucne the cut off's and draw ?

I mean..any fixed time or mostly ?

 

[Avmaia]

So..when does the CIC usually annoucne the cut off's and draw ?

I mean..any fixed time or mostly ?

Probably between 9am and 7pm UTC.

 

[kalex123]

Probably between 9am and 7pm UTC.

10 am cst