Ray of Hope - 119th Draw

[nadal87]

not exactly. there are still people that are above 460 in the pool. new applicants with high crs score enter the pool on a daily basis

Cutoff may well be in the lower bounds of 460's. But, at the same time it should be noted that getting a CRS score above 460 is difficult for out-land candidates and also that the distribution of people in higher ranges is far less when compared to the distribution of people in say 450+ range. The internal CRS tracker is an indication of this distribution.

 

[Punitsingh]

Du

I personally think the cut-off score (in the long run) will be basically the same as pervious year, something 435-455. The reason is that the score for the CRS (education, language, age etc), these factors are relatively slow to change. If one says there is a sudden increase in the CRS cutoff, but without any external policy change like intake being smaller < 3350, it is hard to explain why people have higher scores than before. If one says there are more stronger candidates coming into the pool recently, then the question is why they choose now to enter the pool. Why not last year? why not 6 months ago? why not other times?

The assumption of 223 of 450+ is based on recent data. Please note this number can be seasonal.

PS: Based on official calculator, my current score is something 440-450, but this is because I do not have foreign working experience. After working for 1 year outside Canada, I will get 480-500.

During March, April per day entry of 450+ was appox 240,
From 1st May to 10th May, it was 221
From 10th May to 29th May, it was 240
So doesn’t seem seasonal data

 

[kalex123]

This is slightly aggressive estimate.

u can make an easily fake proil e I tried was able to make it

 

[Punitsingh]

Cutoff may well be in the lower bounds of 460's. But, at the same time it should be noted that getting a CRS score above 460 is difficult for out-land candidates and also that the distribution of people in higher ranges is far less when compared to the distribution of people in say 450+ range. The internal CRS tracker is an indication of this distribution.

Comparison with internal tracker would not be reliable

 

[nadal87]

Comparison with internal tracker would not be reliable

It might not give you an exact distribution; but I believe it is a perfectly capable indication of what to expect in the next draw as it's real data of real people waiting to receive an ITA.

 

[Punitsingh]

It might not give you an exact distribution; but I believe it is a perfectly capable indication of what to expect in the next draw as it's real data of real people waiting to receive an ITA.[/QUO]
Total 451+ in pool on 29th May draw: 6500 approx
In our thread: I guess 60+
So not good data to calculate distribution

 

[SeniorStakes]

I personally think the cut-off score (in the long run) will be basically the same as pervious year, something 435-455. The reason is that the score for the CRS (education, language, age etc), these factors are relatively slow to change. If one says there is a sudden increase in the CRS cutoff, but without any external policy change like intake being smaller < 3350, it is hard to explain why people have higher scores than before. If one says there are more stronger candidates coming into the pool recently, then the question is why they choose now to enter the pool. Why not last year? why not 6 months ago? why not other times?

The assumption of 223 of 450+ is based on recent data. Please note this number can be seasonal.

PS: Based on official calculator, my current score is something 440-450, but this is because I do not have foreign working experience. After working for 1 year outside Canada, I will get 480-500.

Ontario is run by Conservatives. They don't seem to get along well with Federal draws. It is absurd to issue PNP to anyone beyond 455 as all 455+ folks are certain to get an ITA in a month, if not immediately.

Politics is bad when done with the people like us, who are anyway not going to cast their vote in Canada elections.

 

[Punitsingh]

I

Cutoff may well be in the lower bounds of 460's. But, at the same time it should be noted that getting a CRS score above 460 is difficult for out-land candidates and also that the distribution of people in higher ranges is far less when compared to the distribution of people in say 450+ range. The internal CRS tracker is an indication of this distribution.

I agree on the point that lower slabs have higher density.
However in my predictions I considered equal density distribution from 451-470, which is more likely to be wrong, in that case 458 will be the CRS for 5th June

 

[Punitsingh]

Cutoff may well be in the lower bounds of 460's. But, at the same time it should be noted that getting a CRS score above 460 is difficult for out-land candidates and also that the distribution of people in higher ranges is far less when compared to the distribution of people in say 450+ range. The internal CRS tracker is an indication of this distribution.

CRS 459 +-1

 

[Punitsingh]

My mistake, I have ignored the ones left in the pool. :/

Should be around 459 wid 240 addition per day

 

[Punitsingh]

My mistake, I have ignored the ones left in the pool. :/

Should be around 459 wid 240 addition per day

 

[Punitsingh]

not exactly. there are still people that are above 460 in the pool. new applicants with high crs score enter the pool on a daily basis

Right

 

[Punitsingh]

Does not compute. All people above 470 are out of pool. I don't think there are 3350 people in the range of 467-470+ in the pool currently.

Very wrong.
1. 470+ people being added per day after 29th May
2. 451-469 range people are being getting accumulated since 1st May

 

[TADF chemist]

Du

During March, April per day entry of 450+ was appox 240,
From 1st May to 10th May, it was 221
From 10th May to 29th May, it was 240
So doesn’t seem seasonal data

After all, there needs to be a reason for why the score goes up than previous year. Maybe due to smaller intake than 3350 in the future, or something else.

Your number translates roughly 3350 in 14 days, which translates to ~450 cutoff score. In the past year, the score is something like 440-460.

 

[NikSharma01]

Yes, I am afraid it is not only about the money... I will be limiting myself to work in Ontario, while I am checking a lot of jobs on the job bank that are in Vancouver for example.
Let's hope for the best! Good luck to everyone !

You won't be restricted for your entire life buddy. Its just a matter of 2 years and meanwhile you'll be able to seize plenty options.

My hope for an NOI from Ontario has shattered. This time it was a "Targeted Draw" and looks like NOC 0124 related folks were targeted. Total 1079 NOIs issued on 31st May 2019.
https://www.ontario.ca/page/oinp-express-entry-notifications-interest

Congrats to these people. I hope you all will not waste this opportunity. Coz i wouldn't have wasted it, if i would have got it.
@13nitinsharma @NikSharma01 @EnthuChap @skg1988 @Shannoh @SeniorStakes I believe we will get another set of NOIs from Ontario for HCP Stream and this time it will be a "General Draw" rather than a targeted one. It should be around 1000-1200 in numbers. Any idea when it could happen?

My NOC is 2174 Software Developer, looking forward to get an EOI at this point. Its hard to say when it will be conducted. However, looking at the previous scenarios, OINP seems quite active these days, so who knows if we will also get one this month. Let's hope for the best! I want you all to sail through this pool asap.

Well, the HCP Ontario draw happened on Jan 14 had 1,493 invites and my NOC 0124 was selected at that time by Ontario. People didn’t accept the Ontario EOI at that time since they got invite directly on Jan 23 and 30 (draw with 438 scores).

That means, Ontario target didn’t fulfill at that time and they had to resend the invites to same NOC’s to achieve their target. Hence, 1k invites have been sent on May 31 with almost same list of NOC codes. But, Yes, this time their selection of CRS range and date criteria was quite broad. So, this may happen most of the people who’re in 455+ range, won’t go with HCP and will not accept (as they’ll get direct ITA). So, the chances of same NOC’s are higher again whenever they’ll resend invites in next quarter.

So, you can check if there is any scope to adjust your NOC code as per the current list they shortlisted. This way, you’ll increase your chances of getting invite higher than others. Hope this makes sense!

What about NOC 2174?
Is it included in Ontario's demand list?
Was it also included in the Jan 14 draw of OINP?