Ray of Hope - 119th Draw
- Thread starter NikSharma01
- Start date
If draw happens on June 5th, then the cut-off will drop back to later 450s.
Probably 457-460.
Probably 457-460.
My estimation based on 24th May score distribution is below:
CRS score distribution of candidates in the Express Entry pool as of May 24, 2019
CRS score range Number of candidates
601-1,200 729
451-600 4,624
441-450 5,872
Means in 14 days from May 10th to May 24th there were about:
601-1,200: (729-317= 412/14days = 29profile/day
451-600: (4624-1668=2957/14days = 211profile/day)
441-450: (5872-5360 = 510/14days = 36profile/day
So, by 29th May, the distribution will be approximately:
600-1200: 729 + 145 (29profile x 5days) = 874
451-600: 4,624 + 1055(211profilex5days ) = 5679
441-450: 5872 + 180(36profilex5day) =6052
Number of nvitation issued on 29th May is 3350. So, the 874profile with 600+points would have all received ITA. (3350-874 =2476)
Remaining 2476 will be taken from 451-600point range. So 5679-2476= 3203.
Therefore, after the invitation,the score distribution will be:
600+ = 0
451-600 =3203
441-450=6052
By 5th June, the score will be approximately:
600+= 203 (29profile x7days)
451-600= 3203 + 1477(211x7) =4680
441-450=6052 + 252(36x7)=6304
I believe that those 3203 profiles(451-600range) left in the pool after the 29th May are those who have score of 470-451 and looking at the score from ROH119, most people who have entered the pool recently have score of 450-470s.. We can only hope that most of them have 450s...If that so, then the cutoff score should come down between 455-460 if there will be a draw this coming Wednesday. Amen.
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Thanks a lot...exactly what I was trying to get at. It should come down to less than 460 at the very least since most are concentrated between 450-460s if I remember the distribution correctly.
However, the following draws would be more crucial as its going stay in the 450s for a long time at this pace.
Agr
I also believe that those 3203 profiles(451-600range) left in the pool after the 29th May draw are those who have score of 451-470 and looking at the score from ROH119, most people who have entered the pool recently have score of 450-460s.. We can only hope that most of them have 450s...If that so, then the cutoff score should come down between 455-460 if there will be a draw this coming Wednesday. Amen.
Agreed dear...
I also believe that those 3203 profiles(451-600range) left in the pool after the 29th May draw are those who have score of 451-470 and looking at the score from ROH119, most people who have entered the pool recently have score of 450-460s.. We can only hope that most of them have 450s...If that so, then the cutoff score should come down between 455-460 if there will be a draw this coming Wednesday. Amen.
right.. a lot of people has score 451-454 even on ROH.. so it could be anything between 450-460
Yes, dear...There has to be a DRAW this Wednesday for the score to come down to 450-460 range...Otherwise...The cutoff score will stay above 465 or even 470+ again if CIC decide to conduct a draw on 12th June for instance.