Ray of Hope - 119th Draw

[a16107]

Hello everyone,
I have CRS of 261 but can apply only in aug-sept this year. Is there a chance I can get ITA keeping in mind current cutoffs?

thanks

you mean 461 or 261?

 

[pessacanada]

hey i finally got the certificate. so i'm at 460 now . would you update my score plz

Congrats. Your timeline to get nomination certificate please.

 

[13nitinsharma]

Bro did you have a prior knowledge that your NOC is likely to get an invite? I am happy to adjust my NOC to receive an invitation.

Well, the HCP Ontario draw happened on Jan 14 had 1,493 invites and my NOC 0124 was selected at that time by Ontario. People didn’t accept the Ontario EOI at that time since they got invite directly on Jan 23 and 30 (draw with 438 scores).

That means, Ontario target didn’t fulfill at that time and they had to resend the invites to same NOC’s to achieve their target. Hence, 1k invites have been sent on May 31 with almost same list of NOC codes. But, Yes, this time their selection of CRS range and date criteria was quite broad. So, this may happen most of the people who’re in 455+ range, won’t go with HCP and will not accept (as they’ll get direct ITA). So, the chances of same NOC’s are higher again whenever they’ll resend invites in next quarter.

So, you can check if there is any scope to adjust your NOC code as per the current list they shortlisted. This way, you’ll increase your chances of getting invite higher than others. Hope this makes sense!

 

[13nitinsharma]

hey i finally got the certificate. so i'm at 460 now . would you update my score plz

Sure, will do it and share the updated list tomorrow. Congrats!

 

[TADF chemist]

Also regarding the elections

If conservatives come in power nothing is going to affect express entry system as they are the ones who introduced the system in 2015.

Another thing Canada has target of 1 million immigrants till 2021.

The only thing that might change is cut offwill increase because conservatives gave 600 points to job offers . But yet again everyone knows that getting lmia is not a piece of cake .

So all and all cut off will increase but nothing will happen to express entry .

This is my assumption .please feel free to comment

Basically agreed. Express Entry comes into effect mainly to solve the problems of the old system (first-come-first-serve). Express Entry system is relatively fast and fair.

Also agreed, that in worse case the cut-off score will increase (I guess up to 480).

 

[EnthuChap]

Well, the HCP Ontario draw happened on Jan 14 had 1,493 invites and my NOC 0124 was selected at that time by Ontario. People didn’t accept the Ontario EOI at that time since they got invite directly on Jan 23 and 30 (draw with 438 scores).

That means, Ontario target didn’t fulfill at that time and they had to resend the invites to same NOC’s to achieve their target. Hence, 1k invites have been sent on May 31 with almost same list of NOC codes. But, Yes, this time their selection of CRS range and date criteria was quite broad. So, this may happen most of the people who’re in 455+ range, won’t go with HCP and will not accept (as they’ll get direct ITA). So, the chances of same NOC’s are higher again whenever they’ll resend invites in next quarter.

So, you can check if there is any scope to adjust your NOC code as per the current list they shortlisted. This way, you’ll increase your chances of getting invite higher than others. Hope this makes sense!

NOC 0601 and NOC 6221 are for sales guys., Which is what I am currently. I will change the NOC code to 0601 as it was also one of the listed NOCs receiving NOI. Cheers

 

[EnthuChap]

How to adjust noc?
My experience is as below:
Apr 2017 to till date: 2171
2011 to mar 2017: 2283
My noc is 2283, because in 2171 experience is less than 3 years,
What adjustments can I do?
How to figure out that which noc, they are going to pick?
Thx

I don't know either. I'm going to maintain a variety of NOCs of Category A in my EE profile. That's the only trick. Also, @13nitinsharma has briefed that the NOCs which received recently are likely to receive the interest again.

 

[Punitsingh]

I don't know either. I'm going to maintain a variety of NOCs of Category A in my EE profile. That's the only trick. Also, @13nitinsharma has briefed that the NOCs which received recently are likely to receive the interest again.

How to maintain multiple noc in profile?

 

[TADF chemist]

Guys pls let me know what is wrong wid below prediction?
12th June CRS: 463

*Apart from below 3 assumptions rest of calculation is based on facts and figures

Assumptions made:
1. Same no of 450+ inflow will continue in June ie 223 per day
2. Draw comes on 12th June with 3350 ITA
3. Out of all candidates in range of 450-470:
a. 60% are from 450-460 slab
b. 40% are from 461-470 slab

Prediction starts:
After 1st May:
470+ = 0
450+ = almost 0

On 24th May, 450+ = 5353
450+ increase per day= 5353/24 = 223
So on 29th May, 450+ = 223*28= 6244
On 29th May draw 470+ candidates removed= 3350
Remaining (450-470) after 29th May = 6244-3350= 2894

From 1st May to 29th May:
470+ added= 3350/28= 120 per day
450-470 added= 223-120= 103 per day

450+ candidates added by June 12th:
470+ = 120*14 = 1680
(450-470)= 103*14= 1442

Total 450+ on 12th June = 1442+1680+2894= 6016
*2894 are leftover from previous draw
*1680 are 470+

ITA to be issued on 12th June= 3350
If we remove 470+ from 3350, then,
ITA issues to (450-470) scorers = 3350-1680= 1670
*This 1670 number will help reducing the cut-off

Now we need to calculate, how many candidates are sitting on a particular score, which is quite tough, let me give a try:

(450-470) candidates in 12th June draw= 6016-1680= 4336
Now I divide 4336 in two slabs, assuming density is higher in 450-460 range
Slab 1: (450-460) = 60% of 4336= 2601
Slab2 : (461-470) = 40% of 4336= 1735
No. Of candidates on each single score from 461-470= 1735/10= 173.5
Decrease in CRS score = 1670/173.5= 9.62
Hence my prediction = 470-9.62= 461 appox.
Now I put in some negativity factors which I cud not foresee and score can be 461+ 2= 463

In the same way you can calculate 26th June draw

I personally think the cut-off score (in the long run) will be basically the same as pervious year, something 435-455. The reason is that the score for the CRS (education, language, age etc), these factors are relatively slow to change. If one says there is a sudden increase in the CRS cutoff, but without any external policy change like intake being smaller < 3350, it is hard to explain why people have higher scores than before. If one says there are more stronger candidates coming into the pool recently, then the question is why they choose now to enter the pool. Why not last year? why not 6 months ago? why not other times?

The assumption of 223 of 450+ is based on recent data. Please note this number can be seasonal.

PS: Based on official calculator, my current score is something 440-450, but this is because I do not have foreign working experience. After working for 1 year outside Canada, I will get 480-500.

 

[EnthuChap]

How to maintain multiple noc in profile?

You switch jobs and handle multiple duties. This phenomenon is referred as 'career progression' ;-) For example, I started off as a Marketing guy (1123), switched to Business Development (4163) and now work in Corporate Sales (6221/0601). You mention your experiences and associate corresponding NOCs in the EE profile.

 

[SociallyAwkward]

Hey Congratulations bro!!!!!
May i ask what is your NOC and your ECA?? Are you an inland applicant?

Hey Thank you so much! I am not an inland applicant
My NOC: 1221 and ECA: Bachelors degree (4 years)

 

[SociallyAwkward]

That's great!! Good luck for your further process, I'll update the list.

Thank you so much! Btw, can you tell me what's the next thread for me from here
I have been lurking by the ROH series for far too long that I practically don't know how rest of the forums work here

 

[DreamITA]

did anyone predict the crs in case of a B2B draw ?

 

[DreamITA]

i think my NOC 4031 (high school teacher ) is not very interesting .
I have CLB 9 9 10 10 in ielts / NCLC 10 10 9 7 in TEF / work experience: 8 years and nothing from Ontario :/

 

[a16107]

My friend received OINP under 1111

just wondering how many days he can accept the NOI and how many days to submit the application?

Thanks