So I have a rant and y'all the only ones who might care and understand what I have to say.
tl;dr version is, in my opinion, FSW-O normal processing won't resume until january 2022, and general FSW draws won't happen until December 2021 with 99,9% probability.
By normal processing I mean enough PPRs for this forum to notice the significant movement or stable weekly PPR updates on myimmitracker (around 10 per week or more for FSW-O like in 2020).
It's a pessimistic approach, but the most realistic and logical I could come up with. Being FSW-O stuck myself, I'd be happy to be wrong and you can screenshot this rant and post it on r/agedlikemilk if you want to if and when the opposite happens.
So my reasoning is this: so far we've only seen that IRCC only cares about their target numbers of PR landings since they purposely ignoring everyone both in social media and webform/email requests with gener.
The target number for 2021 is 401 000 landed immigrants in every category and 108 500 from 401k should be us, every high skilled applicant including CEC.
Latest total numbers in google on landed permanent residents are
184 000 in July, with around 40k only in the month of July.
If we extrapolate this, we get (all numbers are landed permanent residents):
1) worst case scenario being 26k people on average per month = 314k
2) best case scenario 40k people per month every month = 384k
3) irrealistic but even better scenario with 5k monthly increments from july's 40k = 459k
Both realistic scenarios are short of their targets but best case is probably close enough to please the federal government and\or shareholders.
To achieve best case they will need to concentrate all their resources on quick guaranteed landings within the timeframe of howmuchever months left in 2021. And in IRCCs opinion, it seems, guaranteed landings are inlands, family reunification and afghan refugees.
In addition, India flight ban might also influenced their decision not to focus on outlands, since
India is #1 in supplier of immigrants. As of tomorrow, India flight ban might be lifted as RSub said above that the flight IN-CA has departed and the ban wasn't renewed by the feds last week (they still might renew it on monday). Although, I don't think it'll change things because again outland PPRs demand more resources and time to land.
Alright now to my dates.
January next year for processing because new year, new targets, and there might not be enough CECs to achieve their targets in 2022 and thus processing might resume then.
Of course, there's a possibility that they'll want to clear CEC backlog (Feb 14 and 20 2021 as of now
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/services/application/check-status.html) in which case it's even worse and we can only hope for sept 2022, but I think (or rather hope) that at least one person in charge of this has enough common sense that low scoring CECs isn't really a good idea to implement on a regular basis.
December this year for general FSW draws because they don't want to run out of new CECs to process that potentially can land withing a month since there were cases where CECs got their PR in under a month and since their processing isn't first-come-first-served anymore. After December, possibility of landing a CEC this year is really low so there's really no difference for them in terms or target numbers, but they might still stretch it out to January for whatever reason.
There is no solution for us to implement unfortunately, because even if we all organised, chipped in for an expensive lawyer that will force IRCC to give us a definitive timeline, the lawsuit can take any time from 6 months when all this probably becomes irrelevant.
Good news is this conclusion made me at peace and less anxious about the wait and focus on other things in my life. And I hope it helps someone else too.
Happy to hear your thoughts on this and people telling me I'm wrong. Because I really want to be wrong and that after elections, for whatever reason, miracle happens and PPRs pour by the thousands for outlanders.
