I'm at 489 CRS. Rejected Tech draw NOI in December because I was sure that at 489 I would get FSW so I wanted to skip OINP's 6-8 months time plus $1500 fees. Missed the last FSW draw because of tie breaker rule. And since December didn't get NOI in the 2 tech draws since (even the one from 2-3 days ago). Googled yesterday and found out that I had to create a new profile to get selected by OINP again. If only I knew this 3 days ago. OINP has conducted tech draw in Feb and March but idk if it'll do one in April as well and then if the CRS range will be at 489 or not. Can someone please tell me if I'm doomed?
Who knows!
The story of declining and winning or losing are plentiful here.
People with 450 CRS in 2018 declining ITAs thought they'd get it in next draw. 2019 was a shock to them.
People with 460-70s in 2020 thought the same. Twitter is full of their "plight" now.
Don't know if you are FSW-O or CEC. Depending upon what you are, C-19's quota reduction from general EE draws could either help or annoy you.
At the end, increasing CRS with French and LMIA job is an option too. As long as you don't give and are working on your application, you won't be doomed. Just keep in mind that there's a unspoken "Law of Competition" in immigration. If anything's too easy and direct (e.g. shit IELTS CLB9 or a student graduate route), it will get competitive and unreliable very fast.
Rely on the hard stuff to safeguard yourself, while covering the direct and easy stuff.
French right now is super low competition. IIRC, there were only a max of 300 people in the entirety of 2022-23 EE draws who got ITAs as FSW-O through French. Many are still trying to take shortcuts while giving TEF/TCF and not taking it seriously enough. But, expect this to be a situation for the next 1-1.5 year max. After that, the "Law of Competition" will kick in and it would no longer be a path.