FSW WORLDWIDE
- Thread starter js555
- Start date
. Let's do it!
M
MayorGrom
Guest
They announced it today:
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2022-2024.html
Includes the time-limited temporary public policies for temporary resident to permanent resident pathways, with all admissions anticipated by the end of 2023.
M
MayorGrom
Guest
Admission means processing, not new applicants. 40k + 32k is remaining out of 90k they invited. All it says is that they will process 40k of those in 2022 and the rest in 2023.
Hi everyone.
Here are some of my thoughts you may find... a little bit positive.
Some initial points we should take into consideration:
1) In the beginning of 2022, in the FHS backlog, there were about 67k people (17k of CEC applicants and 50k of FSW).
2) The high range for FHS 2022 target is 64k people.
3) An average processing time is >6 months.
So, my thoughts are:
1) It is not clear how many people are actually in the backlog since people leave the processing inventory only after landing, not after getting the golden mail. I assume that the words "IRCC now processing an average of 800 FSWP applications per week" actually mean "about 800 people land every week", so the real number of people in the backlog may be notably lower than the one IRCC publish. Those who got a COPR but take a month or two before the flight are also counted as backlogged. Yeah, pretty stupid data interpretation.
2) Taking into account the previous point, there is a chance that IRCC chose this target (64k) in accordance with the real number of people in backlog which they haven't provide to the public.
3) It's highly likely that IRCC will stop new invitation rounds for FHS until mid-summer.
4) If IRCC will start sending ITAs around this summer, it's impossible for those people to land in Canada in 2022 since an average processing time is >6 months. As a result, they will be counted as 2023 targets.
6) Taking into account the aforementioned points, the whole situation may look like IRCC plans to spend the whole 2022 for clearing the backlog. It may send as many ITAs as it wants, but none of those ITA receivers will land in 2022.
7) In any case, at least 95% of people in backlog will receive Golden Mails.
8) If the CEC stream is no longer to be prioritised, I assume that more than half of the remaining 5% will be those CEC applicants who received ITAs in 2021. Don't hate me, please, but I find it fair since still there're tons of FSW people who are waiting their Golden Mails since 2019.
9) People with complex cases, people with expired medicals and those who have to add spouses/kids could also fall into these 5%.
In any case, it's the matter of luck, and only God knows one's fate.
Here are some of my thoughts you may find... a little bit positive.
Some initial points we should take into consideration:
1) In the beginning of 2022, in the FHS backlog, there were about 67k people (17k of CEC applicants and 50k of FSW).
2) The high range for FHS 2022 target is 64k people.
3) An average processing time is >6 months.
So, my thoughts are:
1) It is not clear how many people are actually in the backlog since people leave the processing inventory only after landing, not after getting the golden mail. I assume that the words "IRCC now processing an average of 800 FSWP applications per week" actually mean "about 800 people land every week", so the real number of people in the backlog may be notably lower than the one IRCC publish. Those who got a COPR but take a month or two before the flight are also counted as backlogged. Yeah, pretty stupid data interpretation.
2) Taking into account the previous point, there is a chance that IRCC chose this target (64k) in accordance with the real number of people in backlog which they haven't provide to the public.
3) It's highly likely that IRCC will stop new invitation rounds for FHS until mid-summer.
4) If IRCC will start sending ITAs around this summer, it's impossible for those people to land in Canada in 2022 since an average processing time is >6 months. As a result, they will be counted as 2023 targets.
6) Taking into account the aforementioned points, the whole situation may look like IRCC plans to spend the whole 2022 for clearing the backlog. It may send as many ITAs as it wants, but none of those ITA receivers will land in 2022.
7) In any case, at least 95% of people in backlog will receive Golden Mails.
8) If the CEC stream is no longer to be prioritised, I assume that more than half of the remaining 5% will be those CEC applicants who received ITAs in 2021. Don't hate me, please, but I find it fair since still there're tons of FSW people who are waiting their Golden Mails since 2019.
9) People with complex cases, people with expired medicals and those who have to add spouses/kids could also fall into these 5%.
In any case, it's the matter of luck, and only God knows one's fate.
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M
MayorGrom
Guest
I have had very similar thoughts and I ended posted only one which is similar to you Point (9).
Frankly speaking, your analysis is based on several assumptions. 1) We are assuming that there are no more CEC draws until the summer, which is a very big assumption; 2) We are assuming that IRCC will not shift resources to something else (Ukrainian crisis); 3) We are assuming that processing mean landing and not getting a final decision and thus, closing their PR application; 4) We are assuming that they will actually care about upper limit which is not guaranteed. They can strive to hit 55K (a target number), which results in ~20k of applicants to be processed in the next year.
If IRCC shifts focus on Ukarnian, then they will end up having the same backlog problem in 2023. If IRCC wants to focus on Ukrainian crisis, they will hire new resources so that it would never affect the backlogs from being processed.
Not impossible to land if it’s new CEC, like they’ve shown lol. So hopefully draws only really begin when there is no chance of them hindering backlog.