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Simple_truth

Newbie
Jan 19, 2022
3
8
November 24, 2021: Internal IRCC Memo states that FSWC processing times are expected to rise to 36 months in 2022 and that the Federal High Skilled admissions target in upcoming years could be reduced by more than 50% due to the TRPR backlog and Afghan refugee resettlement.

December 14, 2021: Economic & Fiscal Update states (Chapter 1, pg 14) :
Immigration to Grow Our Economy and Welcome New Canadians
Immigration is critical for Canada’s economic growth, especially when it comes to attracting top global talent, meeting the needs of employers, and addressing labour shortages. Immigrants and temporary foreign workers help Canada meet long- and short-term labour market needs, respectively, and international students and visitors are vital to the institutions and businesses they support. They are not only essential to Canada’s economy, but also bring fresh perspectives and connect Canada to the world. The Government of Canada also prioritizes the reunification of families, a fundamental Canadian value that also builds stronger communities. However, the pandemic has caused significant processing delays and backlogs. The government proposes to provide $85 million in 2022-23 so that it can process more permanent resident and temporary resident applications and reduce processing times in key areas affected by the pandemic. This will help to ensure Canada’s immigration system is well-positioned to help meet Canada’s economic and labour force goals. It will also speed up the process to citizenship for the many permanent residents already contributing to building a stronger Canada.
https://budget.gc.ca/efu-meb/2021/home-accueil-en.html

December 16, 2021: Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Mandate Letter:
As Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship, you will prioritize ongoing work to strengthen Canada’s immigration and refugee system, including bringing in more newcomers to all regions of Canada who will support Canada’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. You will also act with urgency to provide resettlement opportunities for people under threat, including Afghan citizens and human rights defenders. As well, you will continue to strengthen family reunification and reduce application processing times, especially those impacted by COVID-19.

To realize these objectives, I ask that you achieve results for Canadians by delivering the following commitments.

  • Continue to bring newcomers to Canada to drive economic growth and recovery, as set out in the 2021-2023 Immigration Levels Plan.
  • Reduce application processing times, including to address delays that have been impacted by COVID-19.

Effect: Candidates start receiving PPRs especially outland candidates.
IRCC filling new positions:
https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/corporate/careers/job-opportunities.html
 
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MayorGrom

Guest
TBH, I wouldn’t go for mandamus. they are working and things are moving. going for mandamus based on some note that was issued back in 2021 is a little hotheaded.
 
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dxdroid

Champion Member
Jun 21, 2021
1,788
1,529
TBH, I wouldn’t go for mandamus. they are working and things are moving. going for mandamus based on some note that was issued back in 2021 is a little hotheaded.
as I said it I am really annoyed that things were not clarified and also about the fact that they said it there is a possibility that applications can be canceled they could also clarify what the increased processing time is about and which application are actually connected to this timing. It does not mean that new applications will have over 3 years processing time. They should also talk about new memos and updates in December which clarified all that, but no, lets create a hype and increase the interest in the channel, it is just pathetic.
 

Alysson

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2019
1,225
2,131
I had decided to take a break from the forums today but this one made me comeback.

Let see.

1. A certain lawyer says : Applications MAY be cancelled, do mandemus!
2. Then : Oh, they may delay your application being processed to 2023 (75K --actually 78K-- pending, 50K places!), so you may be left out in 2022! Mandemus now! Plz!

Let see.... 2. contradicts 1. Its an interesting argument and the point being pushed is : no matter what you do, you will perhaps not get your PR in 2023, if ever, so come to me and do mandemus!

Points not said :
1. A flood of mandemus will swamp court systems, which are already taking quite a bit of time to even accept your writ.

2. The new levels for 2022 (here are for 2021 : https://www.canada.ca/en/immigration-refugees-citizenship/news/notices/supplementary-immigration-levels-2021-2023.html) are around the corner (https://www.cicnews.com/2022/01/canada-to-announce-immigration-levels-plan-2022-2024-by-february-0121114.html#gs.mbesau). By Feb 11, they will be declared and we will know what level have been fixed. A very modest increment of 25-28K will ensure most of those who have been backlogged will be accomodated this year itself. Whats more, Faser guy has shown inclination to do so : https://www.cicnews.com/2021/11/sean-fraser-prepared-to-increase-canadas-immigration-levels-even-as-46000-immigrants-landed-in-october-1119662.html#gs.mbf1n7. So yes, come 11th Feb 2022, you may see the level set to 430K or so and that will absorb the backlogs.

3. In all probablities, new rounds of invitations will start in Fall 2022 with landings scheduled for 2023.
That’s my plan. I’ll wait out the new distribution before doing anything.
 

VVV62

Star Member
Feb 11, 2021
174
227
Category........
FSW
AOR Received.
15-10-2020
Med's Done....
26-11-2020
Hi everyone!
Just my 2 cents.

Let me agree with mr. Simple Truth that we should take into consideration that there were a bunch of IRCC official postings after the aforementioned intermal IRCC memo. In any case, why should IRCC have published its 2022-2023 Immigration Plan if they would've planned to reduce FHS by more than 50% in upcoming years?

Nevertheless, I think that we should shift our attention on the recently published IRCC's Immigration Level Plan where for Federal High Skilled (FHS = FSW + FSTC + CEC) the 2022 target is 110,500 (112,900 as a high range) immigrants.
According to Dec, 2021 stats about the backlog, we know that for FHS there are:
54,529 (FWS-EE) + 223 (FSW-C-50) + 24 (FSW-pre-C-50) + 805 (ST-EE) + 9 (ST-no-EE) + 24,675 (CEC-EE) + 55 (CEC-no-EE) = 80,320 ppl.

So, to sum up my thoughts:
1. I think there's no need for panic.
2. For 2022, there's enough room for all backlogged people (FHS).
3. IRCC keeps working on our files, and I like its pace.
4. $80+ millons will probably be spent by IRCC on hiring new personnel. So, I expect the finalizing pace will grow in the following months.
5. I think no 50% cut will probably take place in 2022-2023.
6. Nevertheless, due to the current processing time, it's almost impossible for a person who will receive aт ITA in 2022 to land in Canada in 2022, so there's a chance that 110,500 - 80,320 = 30,180 free places could be given to applicants from other Classes.
7. Thus, it's quite possible that IRCC stops sending ITAs until mid-2022 in order to focus all its workforce on the backlog since it hinders the reduction of the application processing time.
8. I don't want to offend pre-ITA people, but I think making a pause is the easiest way out: after clearing the backlog, the average processing time will highly likely fall down to the pre-COVID results (around 6-8 months). It's logically to assume that if IRCC continues to invite new people, almost no 2022 ITA receivers will land in Canada until 2023-2024.
9. I'm not sure about the PNP backlog (especially about the paper-based one), but having the finalizing pace of about 15k applications per month, I suggest that 5-6 months will be enough to clear the FHS backlog.
 
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D

Deleted member 1050918

Guest
TBH, I wouldn’t go for mandamus. they are working and things are moving. going for mandamus based on some note that was issued back in 2021 is a little hotheaded.
There are absolutely no indicators showing anything moving for outland apps. Only a handful of PPRs vs what it was before the pandemic. IRCC themselves said FSW waits 21 months on avg now and is expected to wait 36 months this year.
 
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Deleted member 994371

Guest
Who knew a process which was supposed to take six months would have resulted in so much drama.

This is like watching Big Brother.
 
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MayorGrom

Guest
There are absolutely no indicators showing anything moving for outland apps. Only a handful of PPRs vs what it was before the pandemic. IRCC themselves said FSW waits 21 months on avg now and is expected to wait 36 months this year.
Application processing timeline will be reduced. 36 months is expected IF 2021 processing speed remains the same; which is not the case.

A handful of PPRs that are posted on this forum. 2 of my co-workers got PR last week; they won't bother going somewhere online and posting anything.
 
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IncredibleCanada

Star Member
Jan 14, 2022
127
29
Canada Government will never bother whether WP/OWP/Student Permit getting expired or whether of not PR is processed. It is like "If you have it, take it or forget it" situation. But this is now bringing some level of embarrassment for Government as Canada is heavily relied on immigration which they need for years to come. There should be something cooking, it is just the case we don't know. What we know is 2 months old information. Also Steven's file seems to be scrubbed, which is just to raise anxiety
 
D

Deleted member 1050918

Guest
A handful of PPRs that are posted on this forum. 2 of my co-workers got PR last week; they won't bother going somewhere online and posting anything.
Said this before mate, you gotta compare "REPORTED" PPRs pre-pandemic vs post-pandemic. We know most people don't report them but more PPRs = more REPORTED PPRs. You can see that the current backlog isn't going anywhere. IRCC reported it too, backlog increased from Oct to Nov.
 
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Hokage

Hero Member
Feb 27, 2020
262
471
Category........
FSW
So, to sum up my thoughts:

6. Nevertheless, due to the current processing time, it's almost impossible for a person who will receive a golden mail in 2022 to land in Canada in 2022, there's a chance that 110,500 - 80,320 = 30,180 free places could be given to applicants from other Classes.
The golden mail you're referring to is the ITA and not PPR golden mail right?
 
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Alysson

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2019
1,225
2,131
Hi everyone!
Just my 2 cents.

Let me agree with mr. Simple Truth that we should take into consideration that there were a bunch of IRCC official postings after the aforementioned intermal IRCC memo. In any case, why should IRCC have published its 2022-2023 Immigration Plan if they would've planned to reduce FHS by more than 50% in upcoming years?

Nevertheless, I think that we should shift our attention on the recently published IRCC's Immigration Level Plan where for Federal High Skilled (FHS = FSW + FSTC + CEC) the 2022 target is 110,500 (112,900 as a high range) immigrants.
According to Dec, 2021 stats about the backlog, we know that for FHS there are:
54,529 (FWS-EE) + 223 (FSW-C-50) + 24 (FSW-pre-C-50) + 805 (ST-EE) + 9 (ST-no-EE) + 24,675 (CEC-EE) + 55 (CEC-no-EE) = 80,320 ppl.

So, to sum up my thoughts:
1. I think there's no need for panic.
2. For 2022, there's enough room for all backlogged people (FHS).
3. IRCC keeps working on our files, and I like its pace.
4. $80+ millons will probably be spent by IRCC on hiring new personnel. So, I expect the finalizing pace will grow in the following months.
5. I think no 50% cut will probably take place in 2022-2023.
6. Nevertheless, due to the current processing time, it's almost impossible for a person who will receive a golden mail in 2022 to land in Canada in 2022, there's a chance that 110,500 - 80,320 = 30,180 free places could be given to applicants from other Classes.
7. Thus, it's quite possible that IRCC stops sending ITAs until mid-2022 in order to focus all its workforce on the backlog since it hinders the reduction of the application processing time.
8. I don't want to offend pre-ITA people, but I think making a pause is the easiest way out: after clearing the backlog, the average processing time will highly likely fall down to the pre-COVID results (around 6-8 months). It's logically to assume that if IRCC continues to send invite new people, almost no 2022 ITA receivers will land in Canada until 2023-2024.
9. I'm not sure about the PNP backlog (especially about the paper-based one), but having the finalizing pace of about 15k applications per month, I suggest that 5-6 months will be enough to clear the FHS backlog.
Some points as well. Their goal is to use part of the EE distribution for Afghanistan refugees plan(40k) but over 6k already landed last year and they have been posting every landing on social media. Their current rate would only make them land 10-15k this year, and the delay is not lack of officers working on cases, it’s bureaucracy in Afghanistan citizens getting selected, since they have to go through a third party system first. I don’t see that increasing much. They are only landing like 200-400 per week since last year.
 
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Alysson

Champion Member
Apr 17, 2019
1,225
2,131
Said this before mate, you gotta compare "REPORTED" PPRs pre-pandemic vs post-pandemic. We know most people don't report them but more PPRs = more REPORTED PPRs. You can see that the current backlog isn't going anywhere. IRCC reported it too, backlog increased from Oct to Nov.
There was no landing last year. Almost no one who got PPR last year was able to land, because it started in November. All those finalized apps will land this year, so there is no way of knowing yet how much got finalized, unless someone orders an ATIP requesting their processing/landing inventory for FSW.