Frankly, it is time to stop guessing, and just watch for real news.
For those
on-the-cusp, it is at the stage where all you can do is be prepared to sign and ship the application when, in your best judgment, it is an appropriate time to make the application, and in the meantime watch the news to see if, when that date comes, you can still apply under the 3/4 rule.
I have contributed plenty to the speculation. But for anyone who needs to make a real decision about when to apply, it is time to forget about the speculation and pay attention only to real news.
bananaman said:
If I am gauging the sentiment of this forum correctly, it seems like June 1st is rapidly disappearing at a realistic implementation date in many people's opinion. However, there also seems to be several opinions that C24 will be implemented without, or with very little, warning. In this case, why is June 1st less likely as we get closer, if generally we should expect hardly any notice to be given?
This is important to me as I can just about get an application to CIC on Friday 29th May with exactly 1095 days. But if I knew or was very confident that June 1 would not be the date, I would probably wait and submit in the first week of June to give myself a week or so of buffer.
Foremost, nothing has changed in terms of guessing or predicting what will actually be the precise coming-into-force-date for the revised requirements:
We do not know. To be clear, that really does mean
we do not know.
Assertions and opinions to the contrary are
mere speculation, mere guesses.
The only thing we now know is that the coming into force date is not May 11, 2015 or before. Sure, at this stage it is highly unlikely it will be May 12 or May 15.
Beyond that, again
we do not know.
Making guesses two or four or more months ago, July 1st was the odds makers favourite, and that date continues to be the favourite . . . the favourite
guess or bet. Other favoured dates, but not so favoured as July 1st, have been June 1, June 19, and August 1. Again, all these are mere
guesses. It could be May 29 or July 17.
The only difference now is the extent to which real decision-making is on the line, particularly for those very much
on-the-cusp trying to decide how long to wait without risking missing the cutoff date.
To my view we are close enough to when this is going to happen that any further focus on specific dates, on any specific
guess, is counter-productive, blatantly
NOT helpful. At this juncture, those at the point of making real decisions, taking real action, should focus on what is known, what their individual circumstances are, what their priorities are, and make the best decision they can
for their own particular cirucmstances, their own case based on what they actually do know.
In regards to the coming-into-force date, all that is known is that it will be in the coming weeks . . . most likely within ten or twelve weeks at the very most . . . potentially later this week.
My guess, for example, is still June 1st (since nothing at all has changed since I made this guess many months ago). But at this stage I hesitate to even say this now, let alone put any emphasis on it,
because it is just a guess, not something anyone should rely on in deciding for themselves when to sign and ship the application.
bananaman said:
I'll need to be sending my application on May 26 to get it there in time, even with a pricey courier service (I'm on the west coast). My fear is that I wait to add some buffer time only then to find out it's too late.
In the situation posed by
bananaman, for example, a rush to sign and submit the application may overlook a return to Canada which actually happened after midnight, thus a day later than thought, and run into potentially being denied for being short. And, after all, a rush to be sure the application arrives at CPC-Sydney on May 29th may be rendered futile if on May 27th, publicized May 28th, the Governor in Council issues an order fixing the date to be May 29th . . . thus only those applications made as of May 28th getting the benefit of the 3/4 rule with potential credit for time in Canada prior to landing.
Many want to know. But we do not know. We will not know until there is some formal announcement or the Governor in Council actually issues the order.
Many are
on-the-cusp, and anxious. Hopefully the government will show some compassion and approach this so that there is at least a week's notice, so applicants can make rational decisions about when to actually send off the application.
For those coming down to the wire now . . . including anyone who is now reaching the 1095 day APP threshold, not just those approaching the threshold near the end of this month or next month or in July . . . all you can do is have everything prepared and watch for the news, and once you are
past the 1095 day APP threshold (as oft reminded, the applicant must meet the qualifications as of the day
before the application is signed), use your best judgment to decide when to actually sign and send the application.
For example, for someone reaching the 1095 APP threshold tomorrow, technically you can apply (without a shortfall) the day after tomorrow, but it would probably be OK to wait a few more days (at least a little buffer is a good idea). But there is
some risk in waiting.
As we get to the end of the month, and especially if we get into June and still do not know, the decision about whether to wait some extra days gets more difficult, more at risk.
There is nothing anyone here can offer which will make this easier unless and until there is actual, definitive news about what the coming-into-force date will be.
bananaman said:
I hope this is true... I'm leaning towards not submitting until 1st week of June (assuming no announcement is made before then).
This is in reference to the opinion expressed by
MUFC which, in effect, assures there will be notice, and indeed quite a bit of notice, of the cut off date.
This opinion is speculation. I have my own speculation, that there will be some, but minimal notice. But my opinion is also mere speculation. Neither opinion can be relied upon.
There are many, hundreds if not thousands, who like
bananaman would benefit from notice of the cut off date in advance of the date.
To be clear: there is NO reliable assurance the order will be issued by the Governor in Council any more than a day or so before the date fixed in that order for the revised requirements to take effect.
Again, I am expecting some advance notice, but having looked at many previous orders, unlike
MUFC I see
NO pattern and particularly
NO pattern of the sort
MUFC purports to have seen in the implementation of previous legislation by this government. If anything, it appears that such orders are
usually issued no more than a day or three prior to the date fixed for their coming into force.
I agree that the context for this particular change is such that at least some notice (of the actual date) would be reasonable and that virtually no notice would likely cause both a rash of problems (for CIC as well as applicants) and an unseemly outcry, neither of which a sitting government would ordinarily let happen with an election pending so soon.
But again it warrants remembering that NOTICE of these changes has already been given, in the announcements CIC published last June, and by publication of the
SCCA, the Act itself, in the Gazette also
last summer.
The notice those
on-the-cusp are concerned about, including those in a situation like
bananaman, is only notice as to the exact, actual date of implementation. From the government's perspective the precise date itself is more or less a bureaucratic technicality, a formality.
Thus, again, repeating myself for emphasis:
Frankly, it is time to stop guessing, and just watch for real news.
For those
on-the-cusp, it is at the stage where all you can do is be prepared to sign and ship the application when, in your best judgment, it is an appropriate time to make the application, and in the meantime watch the news to see if, when that date comes, you can still apply under the 3/4 rule.
For anyone who needs to make a real decision about when to apply, it is time to forget about the speculation and pay attention only to real news.
And note: Yes, there will be dozens or hundreds, perhaps even thousands, who get very, very close but are cut off. This is going to be a heartbreaker for more than a few who will be poised to put pen to paper and then learn they have to wait another year, or more. This is going to happen. We have had notice this was going to happen for nearly a year.
