MUFC said:
It is also possible right before the announcement a meteor to hit the earth and all of us to vanish.
Absolutely possible to happen.
You people are really freaking out for no reason.
Except we have had notice that the changes will be in force . . . approximately . . . well, soon.
Except there has indeed already been notice of these changes, and there is the history of this legislation itself . . . in draft since early 2012 at the most recent, that is for at least a year before it was tabled now more than a year ago, adopted and given Royal Assent approximately a year ago (five weeks shy of a year), attendant regulatory changes proposed months ago . . . numerous notices it was coming posted by CIC last summer.
Except there is the history of how this government operates, including its history relative to fixing coming-into-force dates, which has leaned far more toward only one to three days between the order and the date fixed, than toward more lengthy time periods between the date the order is issued and the date that order fixes as the coming-into-force date.
There is no doubt this legislation will be fully implemented in the relatively near future.
In contrast, there are no indications scientists are forecasting any such meteor strike.
And NO one is freaking out.
No one is paranoid.
Getting prepared, putting the paperwork together, exploring what the options are, assessing what the best date for applying is, is very much what hundreds of PRs with a real stake in this are looking at as the date that matters approaches.
Again, time to set aside the speculating and focus on practical realities.
bananaman said:
The trouble, dpenabill, is that we're working with an absence of real news. So we have to make our decisions based on a prediction of what the real news will be, and when it will come.
If I send off my application on May 26/27 and it turns into a non-routine application and the coming-into-force-date isn't much later, I'll wish I had waited.
If I wait until June and miss the cut off, I'll wish I had submitted at 1095 days.
So in order to decide what makes most sense, we need to speculate.
Actually, what I have been trying to emphasize is that, indeed, those in a situation like yours really are working
with an absence of real news and to caution that it is time to put aside the speculation and make decisions
as best you can given what you do know.
The speculations will not illuminate anything you can make a decision based on. In deciding what makes the most sense, it is time to forget the speculations, and make decisions precisely on what you do know, as best you can.
It is down-to-the-wire for many of you.
Regarding the buffer issue: frankly, there are many, many other factors more likely to influence how the processing goes and what the risks are regarding the ultimate outcome . . . so long as the minimum APP of 1095 days is met as of the day before the application is made.
Many should include a buffer because they did not keep absolutely perfect and complete records.
Many should include a buffer because their overall situation tends to not make a strong impression of having settled permanently in Canada (immediate family members still living abroad for example).
Some should have a good buffer because if they happen to get RQ, their records to show employment or residence may have some soft spots.
Some, like me, waited to have a very long buffer because there were circumstances in our lives which appeared to put our residency at risk for being questioned.
Most of these individuals will be better off waiting, even if waiting means waiting another year (I waited nearly two years beyond the date I initially surpassed the 1095 day APP threshold).
This is why I emphasize that each individual needs to use his or her own best judgment in deciding the appropriate time to apply.
But make no mistake: relying on speculation would not be deciding what makes the most sense.
At this juncture I am sorry that I contributed so much to all the speculation here in the past. I should have known better. At the time the impending effective date was far enough off in the future I did not see the potential for anyone relying on those speculations in making any actual decisions. But just as your post now illustrates, in the absence of real knowledge many, like you, are probably grasping at the various speculations and trying to discern which is more likely . . . but that's a fool's endeavor, reading tea leaves.
It will be hard to ignore the speculations, but frankly it is down to the stage of things where deciding what makes sense demands focusing on known realities and evaluating one's own case using one's own best judgment.
For you, and many others, it will be the last week of May (assuming there is no real news before then) before you are down to making a definitive decision about which day to send the application off.
It may make sense to leaning toward
gambling that there will be at least a few days between the date the Governor in Council issues the order, and the date fixed in that order . . . that is, that there will be a few days notice . . . since this does seem likely (no guarantees though) and it would facilitate accruing a few more days buffer (at least a couple is a good idea, even for the strongest applications).
But each individual needs to approach this given his or her own set of facts and priorities . . . some will only have to wait one more year and waiting might not be a major issue for them . . . while others may be facing a much longer wait and a longer delay in becoming a citizen might have a real impact on their life, such as their career opportunities, convenience traveling to visit a parent approaching an end-of-life situation.
I understand it is both a difficult decision for many and one which, at the moment, suffers for the lack of knowing a critical element: the cut off date. But it is no time to panic. No time to speculate. No time to rely on anyone else's speculations. Use your best judgment based on what you know, and recognize that it could easily come down to the wire before you can make the actual decision. That is, you may be wrestling with this come May 26th without knowing any more than we know now. And you will have to decide. No need to bang your head on the wall about it in the meantime . . . just get ready, be prepared . . . and when the time comes, make your decision based on your best judgment.
