LostinCalgary said:
I'm sorry but we don't know how much progress they have made so far do we? They might have very well have most of it in place or nothing at all. We don't have anything official about the cut off date yet, but we don't have anything official about the behind the scenes work either.
Precisely.
We really do not know. Most likely all done in time for some day in July
at the latest, but we do not know that for sure . . . and it could be any day.
For clarification:
The only reason that applications being made now, prior to the coming-into-force date for section 3 of the
SCCA, will be governed by current law and not governed by the revised requirements is that the
SCCA itself includes specific "transitional provisions" (easiest view of the "transitional provisions" in the
SCCA is found in the
related provisions for the Citizenship Act), which explicitly prescribe what will continue to be governed by the provisions of the
Citizenship Act as they read up to the date fixed for the revised requirements to come-into-force.
In particular, relative to adult grant citizenship, this is governed by section 31(1) of the
SCCA, which provides (subject to certain qualifications) that an application made under section 5(1)(c) of the
Citizenship Act (section 5(1)(c) being the section currently governing requirements for adult grant citizenship) before the date fixed as the coming-into-force date will be dealt with and disposed of in accordance with the statutory provisions as they read before that day.
Only a further Act of Parliament could change this. CIC has no discretion in deciding the enforcement date. The Governor in Council's decision-making is limited to fixing the coming-into-force date itself (which of course inherently fixes the enforcement date, as again there can be no difference between the coming-into-force date and the date of enforcement . . . they mean the same thing).
Publication of coming-into-force date:
For clarification, the "coming-into-force" provisions of the
SCCA are also already published in the Gazette, as they are found in section 46 of the Act itself (again, published in the Gazette last September).
As oft noted, the Governor in Council (which really means Harper and his close advisers exercising their decision through the title of the Governor in Council) will fix the coming-into-force date for those provisions of the
SCCA governing requirements for adult grant citizenship (and numerous other provisions as well). This will be done by issuing an
Order.
That Order will be published in the Gazette in Part II. It could be published, by request of the Governor General, in an extra edition promptly after the Order is issued, in which case it would be seen in that Extra Edition of the Gazette very soon after it is made. It might not be published, however, until the next Regular Edition, which could be up to two weeks later (Regular Editions of Part II are published on alternating Wednesdays).
In contrast, the
page for Bill C-24 at the Parliament website appears to be updated at least weekly. It will not post the Order issued by the Governor in Council but will incorporate the content of any order fixing a coming-into-force date into its information (see link for "Coming into Force" at the Bill C-24 page).
So one or the other of these sources could be the first to publicly post the applicable coming-into-force date
officially. The Gazette could be more than a week later than the Parliament website, but the Gazette could publish the Order as soon as the very next day. I do not know if the Parliament page might be updated sooner than its routine weekly update (which appears to be Fridays).
In the meantime, of course CIC itself could publicize the coming-into-force date. While what CIC posts at its website is, technically, not "official," CIC is of course a primary authority source and what CIC posts is reliable, about as close to being official as any unofficial source gets.
In the meantime as well, it is possible that the expected date, the date actually planned as the coming-into-force date, could be divulged before the formal Order is actually made by the Governor in Council. This government does not ordinarily release information of this sort, and while this government is more strict in limiting leaks than almost any other Canadian government ever, they do sometimes deliberately leak information (selective release, in bits and drabs, of their proposed budgets has been a hallmark of this government for example). Overall, while it seems unlikely, it is feasible that some media source will get the coming-into-force date in advance and publicize it.
ALL the rest is unreliable rumour, speculation, or guess-work.
Sure, some follow this sort of thing with more background understanding, more diligence, and more insight, and their guesses are probably worth paying some attention to.
Not worth relying on however, not at all worth relying on. This includes my guesses. I think I follow this stuff rather closely, with appropriate context and an understanding of the processes involved, but my guesses are just guesses.
No guessing is necessary, however, to recognize:
-- the actual date remains unknown to everyone here . . .
-- it could indeed happen any day, and . . .
-- it is most likely to happen before some date in July
Beyond that there are a number of more particular guesses, and some of those are indeed more likely than others, but they are all just
guesses, no more than just a guess.
Date of the Order versus the coming-into-force date itself:
This should be readily apparent, but for clarification it warrants remembering that the date the Governor in Council fixes as the coming-into-force date will be specified in the Order issued by the Governor in Council, and that will not be the same as the date of the Order itself.
The coming-into-force date may be the next day (after the date of the Order itself) or ten days later or possibly not until some time in 2016. Or any date in-between.
Except for the possibility that the government will leak the date planned ahead of the Order itself, the amount of notice the public gets will depend on these two dates:
-- date of the Order itself
-- coming-into-force date fixed in that Order
And the amount of notice will be the difference between the two.
Again, the coming-into-force date could be as soon as the next day following the date the Order is made. That would mean no notice. Or it could be for ten days hence, thus giving ten days notice before the effective date. And so on.
Here again, none of us knows what the government will do in this regards, whether or not the date fixed will be the next day following the date the Order is issued or three days later or ten days later or months later.
Most informed observers are guessing it will be in a range between the next day and a month. Some have more specific guesses.
All just a guess. And while I have guessed there will be at least a few days, perhaps one or two weeks, between the date the Order is made and the actual date fixed for the revised adult grant citizenship provisions to come-into-force, this really is a total
guess.
In perusing other Governor in Council orders specifying coming-into-force dates for other Acts of Parliament, I have seen no pattern. Many are indeed
next-day Orders. But many specify a date in the future. I have seen a three day difference and a six-week difference. I have not endeavored to catelog and analyze the variations because I am quite sure that these variations are far more related to the particulars of the legislation involved than any general policy or practice.
For the sake of those who are
on-the-cusp and anxious (for whatever reasons, and there are many good reasons for some to be anxiously seeking citizenship sooner rather than later), I am hoping that the Order itself is issued a week or more before the coming-into-force date fixed in the Order. Even sooner would have been the fair thing for this government to do, but one might just as well ask
what's-love-got-to-with-it as expect that sort of fairness from this government.