CHC, Islamabad Spouse Sponsorship Timeline 2012 -2013

[pardesifr]

Also I don't know why I was putting October 2012 :O it is always till September 2012 to clear the confusion, I think I should re do a complete analysis with all figures

 

[immigratingcanada2011]

Also I don't know why I was putting October 2012 :O it is always till September 2012 to clear the confusion, I think I should re do a complete analysis with all figures

Here's the summary:
- Total files completed from Sept 30 2012 to Oct 1st 2012 = 2650 (2200 acceptances + 450 rejections).
- Total files in inventory on Oct 1st 2012 = 2200.
- 2650 completions per 12 months means 221 completions per month. So on Oct 1st 2012 they had 2200 / 221 = 10 months of inventory on hand.
- Based on this, it won't be before July 2013 that all this inventory clears and Ottawa files' turn comes.
BUT BUT BUT......THERE ARE SOME MAJOR WATCHOUTS
1) When I said anomalies I meant that there will always be a certain number of files in inventory that are not expected to be moved, so will indefinitely stay in inventory. These files could be cases that people abandoned without notifying CHC, or cases for which further documents were requested but not provided, or cases that are in the interview queue, something out of normal basically. So out of the inventory of 2200, we need to make an assumption for these anomaly cases that can be ignored as they're not a part of the core normal operation. Hence, no real resources are going towards them and they can be ignored. If 700 of these cases are anomaly, we can ignore them and say there are effectively 1500 files in inventory. This means effective inventory is 1500/221 = 6 months, meaning Ottawa cases turn will come in March 2013.
2) I think when the Ottawa cases go into "processing", their turnaround time will be much quicker as a lot of the initial work (review, digitization, filing, maybe even more steps has already been done in Ottawa. So the operation should hopefully be much more quicker and streamlined once they get to the Ottawa cases.

That is why based on the updated data, my conclusion still holds that I expect Ottawa cases to go into processing somewhere between March-June 2013. Hope that clarifies.

This is purely based on the data available. There are many qualitative aspects that are not accounted for, so Ottawa turn could even come earlier.

 

[pardesifr]

Ok here is some more for you to tune it more.

The Application received number is for Spouse and children, (we don't have seperate number for just spouse and partner) and the number i posted for visa issued and refusal are only for Spouse and partner. I checked and noticed that deference is of about 150-200 per year. So you can at average for 3 years remove 600 which are children.

Or maybe we should do all analysis on figure from Spouse and children for received and process. What do you say ?

 

[immigratingcanada2011]

Ok here is some more for you to tune it more.

The Application received number is for Spouse and children, (we don't have seperate number for just spouse and partner) and the number i posted for visa issued and refusal are only for Spouse and partner. I checked and noticed that deference is of about 150-200 per year. So you can at average for 3 years remove 600 which are children.

Or maybe we should do all analysis on figure from Spouse and children for received and process. What do you say ?

The excel file I opened on inventories has "cases" and "persons" in separate tabs. I am going by "cases" as far as inventory calculation goes. I think the numbers you are giving me are also "cases", so we should be ok.

Hope the concept of anomaly is clear. It's for this reason that CHC reports how long it took for 80% of the cases to get completed. Because the last 20% cases are anomaly cases that are not completed for reasons that are not CHC fault. They are not taking up CHC resources/time, they are just sitting there for some reason and status of file is "open" although its not affecting their operation, so they should be ignored. I have seen many people on this forum not truly understand what the average time means. It's not actually an average, it is the 80th percentile. The closest number you can get to average is the 50th percentile which is the median i.e. the amount of time it takes for 50% of the cases to complete.

 

[immigratingcanada2011]

Here is the number of file received by Ottawa

2010 : 52
2011: 1,573
2012 (Jan to sept) 2,780

Don't forget the Ottawa also started receiving file from US (buffalo and other ??) also in 2012. And 2012 is only for 9 months.

Buffalo (i don't know what other VO were closed and transferred to Ottawa)

2010: 2,942
2011: 2,360
2012 (Jan to Sep): 93

We don't have the figures for Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 so we have to wait, I don't know when CIC will file them to Data site

Last post of the day:

I don't know what the volume of files received from Buffalo is, but the volume of files received at Islamabad was as follows (based on what you gave me):
2009:3000
2010:2600
2011:2300
2012: Based on this declining trend, I think 2012 files received for Islamabad/Ottawa cases would be around 2000.

Current inventory of cases at OTtawa is 2800. My guess is 2000 of these are for Islamabad.

 

[Naqibee]

Very interesting to read analysis / conversation between immigratingcanada2011 and perdesifr. Insha'Allah Ottawa pilot will prove to be more efficient and all of the applications are processed fast. With lots of duas and prayers for speedy processing, may Allah (SWT) re-unite us with our spouses soooon!!

 

[Marium Rizwan]

share ur timline/

\

App. Filed: 15 Nov 2012
AOR Received + Doc Request: 11 Dec 2012
Doc Sent: 4 Jan 2013
File transferred: 15 Jan 2013
Medical Received: 14 Feb 2013


Now everyone says its a looooooooooooooooooooooooong way to go now

 

[Marium Rizwan]

What is "Med Done"?

 

[dino5541]

App. Filed: 15 Nov 2012
AOR Received + Doc Request: 11 Dec 2012
Doc Sent: 4 Jan 2013
File transferred: 15 Jan 2013
Medical Received: 14 Feb 2013


Now everyone says its a looooooooooooooooooooooooong way to go now

your file is in Ottwa ? if thats the case then my remed is near

 

[MRS SAM]

your file is in Ottwa ? if thats the case then my remed is near

basically she forget to send some documents at intial stage thats why her medical was updated late its not remedical

 

[dino5541]

basically she forget to send some documents at intial stage thats why her medical was updated late its not remedical

Thanks for prompt reply, do you know wher her file is just to get idea,
if its in Ottawa then it means they do send correspondence.

 

[MRS SAM]

Thanks for prompt reply, do you know wher her file is just to get idea,
if its in Ottawa then it means they do send correspondence.

she get documents request from missussaga,,before her 1st stage approval

 

[Marium Rizwan]

The letter I received from CIC says my file has been transferred to Islamabad but someone here was saying that everyone gets that letter even if they transfer file to Ottawa. So I am not sure right now where my file is.

 

[Marium Rizwan]

Mrs. Sam

"Medical results have been received' is written under "Decision made" if i click on details

 

[amjad1002]

HI All
i want to know that should i take immigration consultant or not pls reply with your experience

reg