That is absolutely impossible to estimate -- it depends on the will of the government to push it through, there is no standard procedure that can be used to estimate it. As a practical matter, the real variable is just how much gets done before the the summer recess. Does the government want to pass as much legislation as possible before the recess? Or are they comfortable letting it sit for consideration in the fall? Here is a list of possibilities, from slow to fast:
- the witnesses are heard quickly, the committee votes, and it goes back to the House of Commons for the third reading. Conceivable, if this happens, it could become law before the summer recess, depending on the willingness of the Senate to simply vote on it. The last two weeks or so of the schedule permit extended hours -- will these be used to pass as much legislation as possible?
- the witnesses are heard quickly, the committee votes, and it goes back to the House of Commons for the third reading, is voted on, and then it just sits until the Senate reconvenes after the recess. If this happens, it could be law before October 1st, but I doubt it.
- some of the witnesses are heard, but the committee doesn't finish, or doesn't vote on them. Getting slower.
And so on and so forth. At this point, I would suspect that the main thing slowing it down is two things: 1) the wish of the CPC to not be blamed by immigrant communities for the bill, which makes it more likely that they will want at least the appearance of listening to the wishes of the NDP and the libs, 2) the amount of attention the contentious Elections bill is getting, and 3) the fact that for the majority there may be no rush. If you look at past legislation, if the government really wants it, it can become a law within a very few days. That's why this is impossible to actually put a date on.