Ha, if you add 10 days to each of your timeline it'll match perfectly with mine, which I'm also from Toronto.
It is highly possible that your R10 completeness check is done, and file is transferred for A11.2 eligibility verification.
I, by accident, ordered a GCMS notes when my file is only 2 weeks old and found out that there's a task due on the 6th week of my AOR. The timeline matches with yours too as if you see on yours, the date your BG changed is exactly the 6th week after your AOR.
And i've seen many cases just recently for PNP candidates that the BG doesn't go to in progress from not started as expected, but go back to not needed at this time within the first 1 and a half month, and after 2 - 3 months of dead silence, go to in progress a few weeks before their PPR. So if i'm correct, we should be following the same trend as well.