49th Draw Score Prediction

[Castillo]

[quote

=IOS9.2 link=topic=463568.msg5639723#msg5639723 date=1481527227]
Hi Guys

just a quick question, when is the next draw planned for December ? and do we expect still to have 2 draws this month ?

Thanks ..
[/quote]


Most likely two ....14th and 21st .....ita from each around 3k +....just my rational thought if I were the Minister

 

[thestunner316]

Most likely two ....14th and 21st .....ita from each around 3k +....just my rational thought if I were the Minister

LOL on the 3k ITA prediction... i hope you are right but it looks very optimistic

but yes i agree with you on 2 draws, even i expect 2 draws on 14 and 21

 

[ssiddharthsuresh]

Sitting at 498. Hopefully it comes down to the 490s....

 

[jianxia15]

LOL on the 3k ITA prediction... i hope you are right but it looks very optimistic

but yes i agree with you on 2 draws, even i expect 2 draws on 14 and 21

Also expect two draws in December! But 3k seems too optimistic! A draw of 2500 and a drop of even one point to 469 would be a ray of hope!

 

[cococly]

Hi Guys

just a quick question, when is the next draw planned for December ? and do we expect still to have 2 draws this month ?

Thanks ..

I expect one draw only, on Dec 21 , with cut off around CRS 475.

 

[egoo45]

Not trying to sound pessimistic but I think the next draw would have 2500 invites and a score above 490 points.

I agree that we should consider the impact the changes have on the pool's average score. I agree that 600 dropping to 50 for LMIA holders seems like it will drop the score significantly, but I think people are underestimating the number of people with valid job offers now. It's not just the affect the LMIA points decrease vs international student increase. Many more people now have 50 points for job offers that they didn't have before the changes.

So I think if we weigh international students and people with ICT, NAFTA.. etc job offers points increase vs LMIA points decrease on the current pool score average; I personally think the pool average is much higher than it was a month ago.

Another point to consider is that the last draw was PNP specific, so there will be a slight build up of individuals with high scoring CRS points since they haven't been cleared out for 4 weeks.

Although I will be ecstatic if the score drops below 488!

 

[DelPiero07]

My pet snake thinks i'll get an invite with my current CRS.

 

[thepilot]

450!!

 

[fatani]

Not trying to sound pessimistic but I think the next draw would have 2500 invites and a score above 490 points.

I agree that we should consider the impact the changes have on the pool's average score. I agree that 600 dropping to 50 for LMIA holders seems like it will drop the score significantly, but I think people are underestimating the number of people with valid job offers now. It's not just the affect the LMIA points decrease vs international student increase. Many more people now have 50 points for job offers that they didn't have before the changes.

So I think if we weigh international students and people with ICT, NAFTA.. etc job offers points increase vs LMIA points decrease on the current pool score average; I personally think the pool average is much higher than it was a month ago.

Another point to consider is that the last draw was PNP specific, so there will be a slight build up of individuals with high scoring CRS points since they haven't been cleared out for 4 weeks.

Although I will be ecstatic if the score drops below 488!

It will clear after 4-5 draws how the things shapes up. If your assumption is correct than we will see how much it drops on the 2nd draw. Because high scoreres will get cleared up. Again I will say after every 2 weeks 500-600 LMIAs holders were included with 600+ points and 75-80% of them were on or below 350. So now those 90-95% with only 50 points will not get direct ITA. It will take minimum of 3-4 draws then we will only get a fair idea that how much the scores drop and hopefully we will get yr end EE report in jan end or feb start which will put light on upcoming draws.

 

[fatani]

450!!

My experience is that it will be in 480s. If ITAs are kept to 2.5K. And if back to back draw happens which is more likely and 5K ITAs are given in the space of 7 days we can hope that the scores will drop significantly in the range of 470s.

My experience

550-600 PNPs and LMIAs (few who got 600 pts on 17th 18th nov and few who got 200 pts)

Then we left with roughly 1.9K of ITAs. So if we assume that 75% of Intl students were in the range of 380-400 and now they will be in 410-430 range. So if 1/3 of pool consists of intl students than if 20K are students and 5K students are now will be up or above 430 and 2-2.5K will be up or above 470. And some fswp and CEC who are not students and got job offers with new rules.

So i think it will be above 480 to start with.

 

[OMG_Chakromakro]

My pet snake thinks i'll get an invite with my current CRS.

Yepp! with a score like yours .Absolutely ! ;D

 

[Swill]

lol.... I am sitting at 482. I missed the draw before for 2 points. I was at 468 and it closed at 470. now with new rules and points applied, I am curious to know where it will end.

I am also a PNP (Ontario) holder with a job offer and have applied for PNP PR but the current processing time for this type is 18 months which i believe is ridiculous.

 

[viveksegu]

I think they will invite around 4500 people this time.
2500 + 2000 (remaining from the last round). The scores will still be around 470+ because of all those who got extra points.

And after that it will 2500 per draw. And the scores will come down slowly.

On one side I am sure that this will happen and on the other side I want this to happen.

 

[Saskatchewan_Regina]

I think they will invite around 4500 people this time.
2500 + 2000 (remaining from the last round). The scores will still be around 470+ because of all those who got extra points.

And after that it will 2500 per draw. And the scores will come down slowly.

On one side I am sure that this will happen and on the other side I want this to happen.

4500 is too ambitious

 

[Nick~Nick]

I think they will invite around 4500 people this time.
2500 + 2000 (remaining from the last round). The scores will still be around 470+ because of all those who got extra points.

And after that it will 2500 per draw. And the scores will come down slowly.

On one side I am sure that this will happen and on the other side I want this to happen.

Sorry, but it is too ambitious.
Your one side looks correct not the other.