48th Draw * Score Prediction*

[thepilot]

Hi,

Next draw will be around 490 - 495 with 2000 ITAs.

Logic: 470 + 15 = 485 (everyone is getting 15 points for sure)

Few candidates with LMIA and masters. So add 10 points randomly to 485 which is around 495. As per the last trend they dont wanna increase the cut off points as they want to reach the year end quota too. So they will keep the cutoff relatively mid range such that they will get all the candidates with job offer first and has more than a years of work experience. As per the last cutoff , all the candidates who are below 470 are about to complete 2 years of work ex probably so they will get first chance. So most likely they will start around 490-495 and they will reduce the cut off points slowly.

Even with perfect English and with LMIA without work experience it is still 430-450

There is no way someone with a Masters is younger than 25 years old, bachelors alone takes 4 years and masters another 2 years, which will subtract from the points of age.

 

[simplynd2804]

There is no way someone with a Masters is younger than 25 years old, bachelors alone takes 4 years and masters another 2 years, which will subtract from the points of age.

I completed my masters at 23.

 

[scylla]

Even with perfect English and with LMIA without work experience it is still 430-450

There is no way someone with a Masters is younger than 25 years old, bachelors alone takes 4 years and masters another 2 years, which will subtract from the points of age.

It's totally feasible to get a Masters before you're 25 (not only feasible - but pretty easy). Most in Ontario finish high school at 18 + four years for a Bachelor and then another 1-2 years for a Masters takes you to 23 or 24. I have several friends who managed to do this easily. (Not all Masters are 2 years - some are only 1 year.) Additionally, there are combined Bachelor / Masters programs that grant you both degrees once you complete 5 years of schooling (I have a friend who did something like this through a program at Waterloo). Also have a couple of friends who finished high school a year early and managed to get a Masters by 22 or 23. BTW - they are all Canadians (i.e. people studying in Canada).

 

[newbutterfly]

Even with perfect English and with LMIA without work experience it is still 430-450

There is no way someone with a Masters is younger than 25 years old, bachelors alone takes 4 years and masters another 2 years, which will subtract from the points of age.

I disagree with you. I have a masters degree and I am 24. If not that I did a 6 year course, I would have obtained my masters at 22.

My prediction: 467

 

[kryt0n]

I disagree with you. I have a masters degree and I am 24. If not that I did a 6 year course, I would have obtained my masters at 22.

True. I did a 4 year bachelor's from 18-22. If I had decided to do a master's I could have graduated by 23 or 24, depending on the choice of course.

 

[ronu008]

Hi,

Think in this way, last cutoff was 470. between 465 to 470 there would be around 2000 people at random. out of all these people, most will get 15 points for sure. and rest will get 30 or 50 depending on their masters or LMIA, if they have. but these number is relatively low compared to those who are getting 15 points. so at random add 10 points which brings us to 495. I have a feeling that next cut off will be around 495 and will reduce slowly. This logic looks more realistic.

 

[Aspiring Canadian]

1) 100% correct
2) 100% correct
3) 100% correct. Only highest education needed here. There don't care what you did pre 18
4) you only need to include here the work history you can prove and that gets you points. Don't out down work that will be hard to prove, doesn't get you points or while you were studying. Post ITA there's a history section to include all other jobs (no proof needed). I have had 7 jobs at least in 10 years but there's only 2 in my application, as they are the only two I can prove 100% and get me points.

Relax dude, you're doing fine!!

Thank You for all your help!
Should I then just go in and delete the work experience that I wouldn't get points for? I'm just scared they might say I didn't disclose my work entire history.

 

[kryt0n]

Thank You for all your help!
Should I then just go in and delete the work experience that I wouldn't get points for? I'm just scared they might say I didn't disclose my work entire history.

A lot of people have this fear at first. You add other work history AFTER ita, in your personal history where you list what you have been doing. Just list your skilled work experience and then once you get your ita you just have to prove those. You're all good to go.

 

[simplynd2804]

I think cut off will only be in range of +/- 5 from previous draw, and I think that's because increase in points of Student/ICT/NAFTA is going to be balanced out with decrease in points for LMIA application holder.

The reason I have for this is till now for each draw more than 50% of ITA were given to people with PNP or LMIA means CRS 600+ but now there is drop in LMIA by 550 points so that will increase number of ITA for non LMIA non PNP people so starting from now number ITA will be issued will be able to cover much wider range in terms of CRS score then before.

 

[thepilot]

I disagree with you. I have a masters degree and I am 24. If not that I did a 6 year course, I would have obtained my masters at 22.

My prediction: 467

Did you obtain it all in Canada?

My point was that, there is no way a student with no experience gets over 500 CRS with LMIA

 

[scylla]

Did you obtain it all in Canada?

My point was that, there is no way a student with no experience gets over 500 CRS with LMIA

Right - but I think what the rest of us are saying is that it's entirely possible for someone who is 24 years old to have a Bachelor, Masters and 2 years of work experience.

 

[thepilot]

fair enough.

 

[aircanada]

I predict 485. The first draw after the rule changes. Will go up before it comes down.

 

[ronu008]

I believe, there is high density of candidates around 470 to 480. In mere 2-3 points they are now getting 2000+ candidates. Last 2-3 draw signifies this thing. So after new system in place, 470 would translate to 485. meaning there would be high density around 485. and so they will keep cutoff high around 490-495 and will decrease accordingly.

 

[mfm]

I believe, there is high density of candidates around 470 to 480. In mere 2-3 points they are now getting 2000+ candidates. Last 2-3 draw signifies this thing. So after new system in place, 470 would translate to 485. meaning there would be high density around 485. and so they will keep cutoff high around 490-495 and will decrease accordingly.

I think since LMIA points slashed and extra points for Canadian Education the benefit would go to International Students that dont have any provincial nomination.

So CEC class, without provincial nomination are going to benefit the most.

Cut off would probably around 470ish...