20th Draw - Realistic expectations?

[scylla]

I believe the score will stay above 450 for the rest of the year due to provincial nominations. But that's obviously just a guess.

 

[alex_dinou]

I'm really interested what happens if theoretically there are 1480 candidates with the score of 450 or above and let's say 70 with score 449, and CIC wants to select 1500 candidates. Do they set the score at 449 and go with 1550 selectees? Or do they settle for 1480? Or is there some additional way to select among the 70 candidates with the score of 449 - like NOC code or similar?

 

[Asivad Anac]

I'm really interested what happens if theoretically there are 1480 candidates with the score of 450 or above and let's say 70 with score 449, and CIC wants to select 1500 candidates. Do they set the score at 449 and go with 1550 selectees? Or do they settle for 1480? Or is there some additional way to select among the 70 candidates with the score of 449 - like NOC code or similar?

Tough to say but going by past evidence they are likely to delay the draw by a week in such a situation and retain the cutoff at 450 or higher.

 

[cyronn]

Tough to say but going by past evidence they are likely to delay the draw by a week in such a situation and retain the cutoff at 450 or higher.

Any particular reason why CIC would keep the 450 cutoff? I assume so far it has been a bandwidth issue. But delaying draws to keep the cutoff at 450 is something else. What about the folks with below 450 then?

 

[Asivad Anac]

Any particular reason why CIC would keep the 450 cutoff? I assume so far it has been a bandwidth issue. But delaying draws to keep the cutoff at 450 is something else. What about the folks with below 450 then?

No reason at all. Except that they appear to favor that number for reasons best known to them. It's an arbitrarily chosen number and has no real significance almost exactly like the 67/100 limit for FSW eligibility. Does that mean someone with 66 points is a poor immigrant? No. It's just a number.

 

[cyronn]

No reason at all. Except that they appear to favor that number for reasons best known to them. It's an arbitrarily chosen number and has no real significance almost exactly like the 67/100 limit for FSW eligibility. Does that mean someone with 66 points is a poor immigrant? No. It's just a number.

At 66 you are ineligible and can't proceed further. At 449 you can create a profile and be left in limbo. If 450 is a cutoff, maybe CIC should mention it.

 

[purplesnow]

I'm really interested what happens if theoretically there are 1480 candidates with the score of 450 or above and let's say 70 with score 449, and CIC wants to select 1500 candidates. Do they set the score at 449 and go with 1550 selectees? Or do they settle for 1480? Or is there some additional way to select among the 70 candidates with the score of 449 - like NOC code or similar?

they've done draws where only 700+ people got invites before. It may have been the correction draw in February but it does mean they can lower the amount of invites if there's a threshold they want to maintain. I'm not saying they'll do that, they do seem to like 1500 a lot. But we know its possible.
There'd be absolute uproar if the points came down to 449 but only a fraction of the people with that score got an invite. they have to invite everyone at the score level.

 

[Asivad Anac]

At 66 you are ineligible and can't proceed further. At 449 you can create a profile and be left in limbo. If 450 is a cutoff, maybe CIC should mention it.

What I meant was that 450 is as logical or as arbitrary as 67. Why not 66 or 68? No reason. But I imagine that 450 isn't a hard cutoff unlike 67. Which means there is good reason to believe that it will be breached at some point in time. Just that it looks unlikely to be breached in 2015 given that Ontario is still sending out a few invites as late as mid October. There are enough PNs in the pipeline to satisfy their 1500/draw number which has been the trend for a while now.

 

[cyronn]

What I meant was that 450 is as logical or as arbitrary as 67. Why not 66 or 68? No reason. But I imagine that 450 isn't a hard cutoff unlike 67. Which means there is good reason to believe that it will be breached at some point in time. Just that it looks unlikely to be breached in 2015 given that Ontario is still sending out a few invites as late as mid October. There are enough PNs in the pipeline to satisfy their 1500/draw number which has been the trend for a while now.

No I get it. It is arbitrary. We can all only guess on how things will play out in the future. My point is with more and more people becoming aware of express entry, the number of EE applications can be expected to increase. In that scenario I wonder what reason would CIC have to ever drop the ITA cutoff below a certain threshold, 450 or any other arbitrary number.

 

[bestofluck]

Doesn't look like CIC is going to change the approx 1500 ITAs in every draw strategy. It could be the number they can process, around 3000 a month or so. In that case the only variable remaining is the number of draws left in this year. Optimistically speaking 2 more draws every month leaves about 4 draws for this year. In which case we definitely should see scores dropping below 450 atleast by the last draw of this year, if and its a big if, CIC doesn't have a backlog of Provincial Nominations to clear.

CIC might change the number of 1500 because the back log of applicants from 2014 is quite reduced and now they can process more applications. This also give increase number of invitations to express entry. they definitely don't intend only 36000 applicants from EE. They stated that there shall be 16-25 Draws in 2015. Now the quota for 2015 is not satisfied and so 25 Draws will also not serve the purpose. This also means we will have 25 draws at least before January 31st. This exactly means 2 draws per month. Now only thing we have to watch is number of applicants ..which will be the game changer for express entry.

 

[cyronn]

CIC might change the number of 1500 because the back log of applicants from 2014 is quite reduced and now they can process more applications. This also give increase number of invitations to express entry.

Fair point. EE invitation numbers might go up once the pre-EE backlog starts getting cleared.

 

[vruts]

486 should get you an invite in the next draw.

What you did for scoring such a high band in IELTS?

 

[ritesh_p7]

What about candidates who have scores between 350 to 450? Will they ever get an ITA n 2016.If no then how can they get raise their score or switch to PNP track

 

[bestofluck]

What about candidates who have scores between 350 to 450? Will they ever get an ITA n 2016.If no then how can they get raise their score or switch to PNP track

yes they will have have good chance next year, at least those who are in 350-400 range should not lose hopes. But keep trying province.

 

[bestofluck]

Well I expect a Draw today is simple. Canada is not like India where a minister would not work anymore if he is defeated in elections. Chris might work double to complete his pending work , would try to fulfill his promises and would not like to leave burden on next Minister.

Expect a draw today with scores 454, fingers crossed